Ukraine War discussion

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#3094242 23-Jun-2023 21:09

Prigozhin is fascinating in a dark way, especially as his statements have evolved over time.

While still leaving room that he is loyal to the 'Boss' directly.
He has not backed down at going after the Russian Military Command, Sergei Shoigu and his family especially.
Vaseline seems to be a very recognizable brand in Russia as word is used in his direct insults.

He keeps room open that the 'Boss' is being misinformed and ill advised.
He does include a lot of contradictions of official numbers even on territories lost that would see anyone else in Russia imprisoned.
It is a crime to insult and besmirch the reputation of the Russian Military.

Comments that do not understate the progress of Ukraine and the problems of Russian troops.
Pretty well saying directly that Russian MOD figures are fantasy and as worthless as their capability to plan proper action.

Prigozhin seems to be staying close to his Wagner forces that keeps him away from windows.
Probably gives him and exit to Africa if needed.

While absolute in brutality to the prisoners, he did honor his deal to send them back.
This contrasts a MOD mobic or contractor who has done their contract, then finding it gets extended, they did not get paid etc.

So to these survivors, they might feel loyalty to Prigozhin in that for first time in their lives they have not been cheated.
They got their money, they got their pardon, they got sent back home.
He has done videos visiting the Wagner cemeteries, done a promo where he gives his car to a grieving family.
Survivors may serve as heart of a loyal movement within Russia if Prigozhin needs ?

So next ruler of Russia ?
When the Boss dies without leaving a definite successor.

Then there is this ...
It could be a fake ?
There is a video purporting to have him saying ...
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672157866222923781?cxt=HHwWisC9iYmu2bQuAAAA

""
"Ukraine has not bombed Donetsk for 8 years, only Russian positions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack Russia with NATO soldiers, the Russian Ministry of Defense is deceiving the public and the president."
""

Presenting himself as a devil who knows the facts and you can deal with , vs the deluded mad king ?

Or deepfake ?

Rikkitic

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#3094299 24-Jun-2023 10:28

I wonder if a coup could be underway or about to occur. Something seems to be going on though it's not clear what. Wagner and the Russian defense department seem to be in open conflict. Here is one quote:

Igor Strelkov, pro-Russian military blogger, former defense minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (via Telegram)

"I state that the country is on the verge of an attempted military coup. Who initiated it is not yet clear. It is possible that both warring factions of the 'power party' are striving for it, with the neutrality of the third (the FSB and the Security Council)."

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

ezbee

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#3094302 24-Jun-2023 10:47

Prigozhin has got to the midstream and mainstream.

He refuted the reasons for the SMO in furst place, That as usual for Russia/USSR/Putin's now USSR, it was all lies.

Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin says Moscow's war in Ukraine is based on lies
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-24/wagner-boss-says-moscows-war-in-ukraine-based-on-lies/102519130

Now Wagner Base has had a major rocket attack from behind !

Prigozhin Says Moscow Strikes Kill 'Huge' Number of Wagner Forces, Vows to 'Stop' Top Brass
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/ukraine-war

""
Independent media outlet Vyorsyka reported that relatives of Wagner fighters were allegedly unable to reach them following Prigozhin’s statements Friday evening, writing in online chat groups that the day before they had called to “say goodbye.”

“Yesterday, many of the guys called to say ‘goodbye.’ Many of them said to watch the news,” one relative is quoted as saying.

“Soon our [loved ones] will be designated terrorists,” said another relative, suggesting that the mercenary group had been planning some kind of armed operation.
""

Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military
FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-russias-military-of-attack-and-says-evil-leadership-must-be-stopped

Presumably he is not such a 'Mad Russian' as to have made this break without a 'plan' ?

Batman

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#3094303 24-Jun-2023 10:49

Kremlin rocket striked Wagner's camp

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-this-is-a-state-coup-criminal-probe-into-wagner-group-head/5OTFJYTU2ZEZJLACVPF62ILXYA/

freitasm

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#3094318 24-Jun-2023 11:47

Interesting, from the Guardian article - he said:

“The ministry of defence is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there was insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole Nato block,” the Wagner head said.

He's certainly trying to make it look like he's still supporting Putin.

The abc.net.au article says:

Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin says on Friday that the official Kremlin-backed version of why Moscow invaded Ukraine was based on lies concocted by his perennial adversary — the army's top brass.

I think he's trying to help save Putin's hide by saying the whole war is the Army's fault, not Putin's.

My technology disclosure

ezbee

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#3094356 24-Jun-2023 13:17

Yeh...

Prigozhin maybe giving Putin an offramp, if the mad King would see it.
I was hypnotized in isolation by Peskov with his creepy wild eyes, and that Shoigu who stole from my military.

Perhaps also a message to Putin loyalists that Prigozhin is not proposing to change the rest of the power structure.
Just extract themselves from this war and get rid of a few people like Shoigu and Gerasimov.
The rest are safe and can go back to usual stealing once things settled.

It gives them an excuse for the failure of starting this SMO, we were betrayed by these people not a failure of Russia.
So they can accept the loss as its not their loss.

Reportedly a recent message ...

""
Dmitri
@wartranslated
Prigozhin's audio message at 01:22 BST:

"The Head of General Staff is not calming down: a mistake of any African dictator is to deal air strikes at civilian areas. Right now in the air are two planes numbered 523 and 546 that are trying now to deal these strikes.

Remember, lads. The motherland will not forgive you for strikes at your own territory. You should have the courage to strike the enemy territory when our infantry is moving.

Thus, these speculations saying that we are interfering with someone fighting on the front are speculations. We do not interfere with anyone. We interfere with criminals savings their asses, who destroyed around 100k Russian soldiers. Gerasimov and Shoygu."
""

kingdragonfly

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#3094379 24-Jun-2023 14:47

Unrelated to Ukraine, you'll the name "Bellingcat" may seem familiar.

About a month ago: The Verge: Elon Musk claims a Bellingcat story detailing white supremacist tattoos and slogans was ‘psychological operations.’

Elon Musk then had him shadowed banned on Twitter. Before purchasing Twitter, one of his "reformation" goals was to never permit shadow banning.

Anyhow back to Ukraine, here's a story from from Bellingcat

Bellingcat: Site of Alleged Wagner Camp Attack Recently Visited by War Blogger

A Russian military blogger visited a Wagner base shortly before it was allegedly the target of a shelling attack, which Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin has blamed on the Russian Ministry of Defence (MOD), although which the MOD has denied.

On the evening of June 23, a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel posted the following message, which was soon-after shared by Prigozhin on his personal Telegram channel: “A missile attack was carried out on a PMC Wagner base. There are many casualties. According to the information of the fighters who are witnesses, the attack was carried out from a rear direction – that is, it was carried out by soldiers of the Russian Ministry of Defence.”

The video shared by the Wagner channel shows panicked men going through a forested base, eventually reaching an area with damaged trees, lingering fires, and an apparent corpse. It is as yet unclear if this footage shows the aftermath of a genuine attack or if it was staged.
...

Rikkitic

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#3094497 24-Jun-2023 17:16

It is really interesting, what is going on in Russia right now. This could erupt into a full-blown revolution or civil war. Shades of 1917!

I find it amusing that this is happening on a weekend, when of course New Zealand news media know beyond doubt that news never happens on holidays, so there is no need to be available to cover anything.

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gzt

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#3094504 24-Jun-2023 17:50

Why Rostov? Alexander Vindman has an answer..

tdgeek

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#3094507 24-Jun-2023 18:04

Rikkitic:

It is really interesting, what is going on in Russia right now. This could erupt into a full-blown revolution or civil war. Shades of 1917!

I find it amusing that this is happening on a weekend, when of course New Zealand news media know beyond doubt that news never happens on holidays, so there is no need to be available to cover anything.

I just want the West and everyone else to man up. Either we step back when a ruthless dictators calls the shots or we dont. If we man up we crush Putin, set the other 70 million Russians free. Or we cut Russia off 100%. Yes, an issue with China there, but you may find China wants this over as well. Each day this goes on, is a win for Putin

tdgeek

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#3094523 24-Jun-2023 18:09

Rikkitic:

It is really interesting, what is going on in Russia right now. This could erupt into a full-blown revolution or civil war. Shades of 1917!

I find it amusing that this is happening on a weekend, when of course New Zealand news media know beyond doubt that news never happens on holidays, so there is no need to be available to cover anything.

Unfortunately, this war has become old, like Covid. People move on. Its a pity that many of us dont dig the toes in. Lets say there was a stand down. War still technically exists, but it goes quiet. North Korea.. The Ukrainians are still screwed. And Putin gets off

Russia (the country) needs to be put on notice. Fark off and pay the damage, or be 100% isolated.

ezbee

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#3094536 24-Jun-2023 19:33

Wagner traveling circus of death seems to have pretty good air defense shot down 3 Russian helicopters that attacked them.
They are not taking this lightly, seems a proper organized military unit prepared to deal with threats.
Not a rabble.

Now claiming control of second major city 1/2 way to Moscow, Voronezh on top of the HQ for Southern Military in Rostov-On-Don.
So in control of all the military supplies and logistics go to the Crimea and Ukraine front, and the HQ directly managing the campaign.
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/index.html

Putin remained missing for the day giving the empty media and news space to Wagner.
Finally appeared and said situation around Rostov remains complicated ( You don't say ! ) .
Declared this as treason and mutiny so its all on, Prigozhin will have to depose him to survive.
It will now be the same for the leading Wagner commanders and those units that have joined them.
Its a deathmatch for sure now.
There can be only one.

neb

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#3094569 24-Jun-2023 22:07

tdgeek:
If we man up we crush Putin,

... meaning attack a country with around 6,000 nuclear warheads whose policy on using them includes the case of an existential threat, for example being attacked by a coalition of other countries in order to crush their leader.

Rikkitic

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#3094573 24-Jun-2023 22:20

neb:
tdgeek:

If we man up we crush Putin,

... meaning attack a country with around 6,000 nuclear warheads whose policy on using them includes the case of an existential threat, for example being attacked by a coalition of other countries in order to crush their leader.

I read somewhere that they have 8,000. What is the shelf life of a warhead? Do they require maintenance? Do they deteriorate, like batteries? Would warheads manufactured in the sixties still work or be reliable?

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neb

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#3094575 24-Jun-2023 22:30

Rikkitic:
What is the shelf life of a warhead? Do they require maintenance? Do they deteriorate, like batteries? Would warheads manufactured in the sixties still work or be reliable?

Yes. I don't know about Russia but the US has the Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan (SSMP) which documents the process in some detail.

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