Ukraine War discussion

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#2876371 28-Feb-2022 15:44

quickymart:

Right, but if they capture Putin, will it be like Saddam again, or something different? (genuine question)

Nobody is hunting Putin.

ezbee

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#2876375 28-Feb-2022 15:53

I guess Putin won't be visiting the troops on front line.
He could tell them where they are and why they should die for him personally.
Same troops may see a way to end the war with little bloodshed.

Yeh a mountain Lair, a pulp fiction villain.
He sells himself as action man, judo, bear hunting and such.

Now there is example of a real leader exposing themselves to real risk.

When you are a virtual dictator, its all about you.
Decades of this probably corrodes your personality from the inside.

Having everything that he could materially want in Russia, seeing death ever closer.
Do you go back to what you have really wanted the old USSR back again.

This makes a big difference as you decompose in the grave ?
Yeh its hard for sane people to understand.

GV27

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#2876377 28-Feb-2022 15:55

I wouldn't read too much into Putin being holed up somewhere, that's going to be SOP for a President of a nuclear power.

It's believable that he'd be pissed but I also can't really believe he expected a different result given the lack of commitment to air superiority and basic things like supply lines. I really struggle to see how this could have ever been over in a single day.

I mean you can probably assume Putin is pissed it's not over sooner and that he would have liked a decisive victory, but writing it off to incompetence is something you'd do at your peril.

gzt

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#2876414 28-Feb-2022 17:55

GV27:
And now this:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1498088791604891649
"European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced that Ukraine belongs in the European Union and the bloc wants the country to join — a rebuke of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own claims over the Eastern European country."
This is rapidly getting out of hand.

EU and NATO are two different things. Not all EU member countries are NATO member countries.

Batman

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#2876417 28-Feb-2022 18:23

this is what i think will happen

Putin's ego is bigger than the planet, and that ego is bruised by Ukraine resistance

he will escalate violence and commit war crimes

in doing so leading to his demise

either convicted by international court or holed up in his bunker in russia never to be seen again

Batman

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#2876422 28-Feb-2022 18:29

also you don't want to hear this but been reading social media and Trump supporters (yes Kiwis included) are blaming Biden for this war

CruciasNZ

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#2876472 28-Feb-2022 18:36

Batman:

this is what i think will happen

Putin's ego is bigger than the planet, and that ego is bruised by Ukraine resistance

he will escalate violence and commit war crimes

in doing so leading to his demise

either convicted by international court or holed up in his bunker in russia never to be seen again

He already has, they're launching rockets and shells into civilian areas; however I agree he'll escalate

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Batman

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#2876473 28-Feb-2022 18:38

he's got a psychiatric disorder. the only way i see this stopping is his generals munity or someone takes him out.

neb

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#2876477 28-Feb-2022 18:50

Batman:
also you don't want to hear this but been reading social media and Trump supporters (yes Kiwis included) are blaming Biden for this war

That's been analysed elsewhere, since the US is so polarised one side of the divide will say anything to attack the other side, including supporting the traditional enemy (Russia) against the US, but a different bit of the US than themselves. So it's not so much blaming Biden for the war as taking every opportunity they can to put the boot into the other side.

Which just reinforces how badly broken the US is.

rugrat

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#2876478 28-Feb-2022 18:51

Russia moving in thermobaric weapons. They suck the air out of everything including people.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/462397/russia-ukraine-war-what-are-thermobaric-weapons

Looks like Ukraine is making good use of drones.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10558543/Ukraines-Air-Force-claims-launch-successful-drone-strikes-obliterating-Russian-convoys.html

neb

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#2876482 28-Feb-2022 18:54

ezbee:

I guess Putin won't be visiting the troops on front line.
He could tell them where they are and why they should die for him personally.

That's one thing I've noticed from a few Russian forums I browse occasionally, there's typically various pro-Russia meme pictures posted, not overt propaganda but simply stuff showing Russia in a favourable light, but also in a humourous manner, same thing you'd find in the more redneck parts of the US.

Given the current war, you'd expect the same forums to be flooded with overt patriotic postings and memes. However, there's been absolutely nothing. You wouldn't even know there's a war on. It truly is Putin's War, there seems to be no popular support for it at all.

GV27

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#2876484 28-Feb-2022 18:58

gzt: EU and NATO are two different things. Not all EU member countries are NATO member countries.

It's still bringing EU influence right to his doorstep - he's often railed against 'Europe' and not specifically Nato. He sees it as fundamentally at odds with Russian interests.

I mean don't ask me, the whole thing makes no sense. If he'd taken Ukraine by now, he'd just have new de facto borders that are right up against NATO states, which was supposedly his problem in the first place.

ezbee

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#2876533 28-Feb-2022 19:06

GV27, true, the mountain lair thing more of a joke, and a 'history never repeats moment'.
Given there are quick tests, the long table is also comical.
But yes the mess is very serious and he is not playing around.

It seems to be like the Iranian hostage rescue, its a brilliant plan till 'one' thing goes wrong.
Russia did do something similar in Afghanistan, when it flew in and 'removed' the leadership.

Putin seems to be all about power.
The world is inevitably the natural plaything of Autocrats. Corruption is universal.
Logical extension Steve Bannon ideology ?

Maybe he can't understand that with at least 10X the force arraigned against them.
That the Ukraine military may not stand down and look forward to taking over leadership under him.
A skimming bit of this and a bit of that on the side for extra income.
Maybe his generals can't understand either in planning.

True there is still the full fearsome weight of the forces to come, and logistics problems may not last.

Time weighs on both sides.

neb

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#2876534 28-Feb-2022 19:07

rugrat:
Russia moving in thermobaric weapons. They suck the air out of everything including people.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/462397/russia-ukraine-war-what-are-thermobaric-weapons

It's not really that, they rely on a fuel/air mix for their explosive power so give more bang per buck because they don't need to carry their own oxidisers. In addition with a decent delay between the bursting charge and the ignition charge the fuel can flow around and into things rather than the explosion being a single point source. What kills you is the pressure wave, not lack of oxygen.

And then you can modify it like the Rhodesian Golf Bomb which was detonated from top and bottom to squeeze out the blast at ground level, with chopped steel rods at the sides to spread the fun.

Edited to add: Oops, memory fail, the steel-rod variant was a later one using ANFO since the ethylene oxide for the original Golf Bomb was too hard to obtain while under sanctions. Those guys improvised better weapons than the US with its huge military-industrial complex could.

tdgeek

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#2876544 28-Feb-2022 20:01

CNN reports Belarus may join Russia in the war.

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