Ukraine War discussion

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2358 posts

Uber Geek

#2879738 6-Mar-2022 14:30

SJB

Biden can only put more steel behind support of Europe to do the right things on tougher sanctions and aid.
It's their front line not his, so can't go rouge in someone elses backyard.

Even Britain in the whole Brexit mess has lost influence, and status if they wanted to.
Money behind very cashed up Brexit campaign, and maybe favors Boris owes ?
Boris leading the free world, not so much.

Biden also has a very divided country to heal as well, another advantage to Putin's disinformation campaign.
Asymmetric warfare that literally pays for itself.

Hopefully USA can put something on table to encourage the transfer of some jets,
and larger ranged weapons systems to Ukraine.

I think Poland put up 2Billion for a US base on their territory but it was turned down in 2018
https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-poland-offers-us-up-to-2-billion-for-permanent-american-military-base/

Though the tortoise like speed of approving spending bills in an emergency, even with cross support.
Gives Putin so much more time, if I can't have it you can have ruins and bill to rebuild, with impoverished population.

tdgeek

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#2879743 6-Mar-2022 14:46

ezbee:

Gives Putin so much more time, if I can't have it you can have ruins and bill to rebuild, with impoverished population.

Thats the thing, he's fine with dead Ukrainians, levelled cities.

He is also being pressured by his flailing economy. he cant go back, he cannot withdraw, thats beyond his mindset, no matter how sensible it might be in the future, as his economy fails and his people push back. He is the one man band, its his baby, its his dream.

If sanctions are seen by Putin as tantamount to declaring war, well, call his bluff. Let us know when we have apparently declared war, then NATO and others will go after Russian military in Ukraine, The Hague can sort out the "declaration" in the rooms next door to the War Crimes courtroom.

IMHO, unlike most conflicts, Putin wont cease illegal warfare, and he wont withdraw, even if his military experts said to. His idea of negotiation is put your weapons down.

SJB

2945 posts

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#2879746 6-Mar-2022 14:58

tdgeek:

IMHO, unlike most conflicts, Putin wont cease illegal warfare, and he wont withdraw, even if his military experts said to. His idea of negotiation is put your weapons down.

They would quickly become his ex military experts.

Oldmanakbar

110 posts

Master Geek

#2879850 6-Mar-2022 15:50

Call me optimistic.I really hope, assuming this actually ends without nukes being used, that we use it as a way to disarm the world from strategic nuclear weapons.

We could start with lifting 1% of the sanctions for every 70 Russia gives up for destruction and move on from there. We are seeing in 4K HD how a lunatic who has them can hold the world to ransom.

Pretty much the whole world (minus the usual suspects) is on one page for once, it would be dumb for us not to use the momentum and get something done. Climate change is already likely to be a winner with most of Europe suddenly deciding it can do without gas, get the right people in power and who knows...anyway, rose coloured glasses off now. We all know that isn't going to happen.

With the amount of lethal military, financial and intelligence aid the west is providing to Ukraine, not to mention the sanctions that are economically wrecking Russia, war has pretty much already been declared. Just no one wants to be the first to admit it. The odd thing is that Putin hasn't reacted to it.

Also, I must say the amount of information about what it going on at the moment being shown on mainstream media here is...lackluster?

Batman

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#2879851 6-Mar-2022 15:57

this will only end when either Putin or Zelensky is dead. could be days could be years.

SJB

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#2879854 6-Mar-2022 16:14

Oldmanakbar: Call me optimistic.I really hope, assuming this actually ends without nukes being used, that we use it as a way to disarm the world from strategic nuclear weapons.

I think you are going to be disappointed.

Israel give up it's nukes? India and Pakistan? Countries stuffed full of nut jobs who would rather see the world destroyed than give an inch.

rugrat

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#2879856 6-Mar-2022 16:27

Unbelievable it looks like Russia is part of the negotiations for the Iranian nuclear deal, they will block it if they don’t get some sort of sanction relief, I.e sanctions don’t effect their trading between themselves and Iran.

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/russia-obstructs-iran-nuclear-deal-as-the-kremlin-frets-over-oil-income/amp/

cruxis

472 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2879858 6-Mar-2022 16:29

The sanctions means war is pretty much declared. Who is going to attack first..... I bet he will use a chemical weapon on the battlefield, Just to give a big FU finger to NATO. Nato has not defined any "red lines" have they?

shk292

2831 posts

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#2879866 6-Mar-2022 16:36

ezbee:
Even Britain in the whole Brexit mess has lost influence, and status if they wanted to.
Money behind very cashed up Brexit campaign, and maybe favors Boris owes ?
Boris leading the free world, not so much.

Don't exaggerate the effect of Brexit. Uk under Boris is leading the way in Europe both in strength of sanctions and in materiel aid. UK is a strong member of NATO, has an independent nuclear deterrent and a permanent member of the security Council. It may not suit the deluded remainer narrative, but there is no evidence whatsoever that Johnson is indebted to Russia or pulling UK's punches when it comes to this conflict. Perhaps if EU overlord Germany had pulled its NATO weight in terms of military expenditure and hadn't put it's energy security in Putin's hands, we might not be in this mess

Sidestep

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#2879871 6-Mar-2022 16:57

shk292:

Perhaps if EU overlord Germany had pulled its NATO weight in terms of military expenditure and hadn't put it's energy security in Putin's hands, we might not be in this mess

Yes, absolutely.

The main problem is that Germany (and Poland) get around 55% of their gas from Russia.

Poland may be able to replace most of theirs via the Baltic Pipeline from Norway and by burning more coal, the Germans not so much.

They've been dozing, in their toasty warm houses - dreaming of renewables - while their Russian pipeline IV's feed them sweet, sweet gas under the Baltic through Nordstream 1, through Yamal via Belarus and Brotherhood via Ukraine.

What's just happened is the equivalent of whipping out a defibrillator and giving them a huge jolt. They've woken up to an own-goal energy nightmare.

Unless the US lines up some sort of 'Berlin Airlift' of LNG to Germany (via Spain or another country as Germany doesn't have regasification terminals) they'll freeze in the cold and dark if it's turned off.

Chancellor Scholz's just approved building two LNG import terminals, one at Brunsbüttel, by Dutch energy infrastructure specialist Gasunie - and one to the west at Wilhelmshaven.

They'll take years to build. Both Germany and Italy are looking to (non-Russian) coal to partly replace Russian gas, but Germany's been closing it's coal fired plants.

In an 'Every cloud has a silver lining' scenario, here in the Oilpatch a popular bumper sticker on lifted pickup trucks - which have lately had nothing better to do than meander through the streets rolling coal on Teslas - says “Please God, give me one more oil boom. I promise not to piss it all away this time.”

It looks like their prayers have been answered, $120 - and rising - oil's a roughneck's wet dream.

The Premier, who's job was hanging by a thread during covid has reappeared with a Cheshire Cat grin, kissing babies and promising cash handouts, as the Americans call for increased Canadian oil and gas production.

He's extra happy because not only oil but also grain and sunflower crops are set to fetch record prices, and Alberta produces them as well.

We, Texas and North Dakota, Saudi Arabia and other producers are in for one last, great oil boom - as are Australia and Qatar with LNG exports - before crazy energy costs drive a full change to renewables.

Now, if only there was only some way of shutting Russia out of this energy bonanza - like was done to Venezuela and Iran..

CruciasNZ

879 posts

Ultimate Geek

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#2879872 6-Mar-2022 17:01

After what's happening to Ukraine I doubt any country will give up their nukes. The treaty which disarmed Ukraine's nukes was signed by both the US and Russia and stated they would commit to recognising the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine. If they still had their nukes Russia wouldn't be invading so cavalierly, and the US hasn't backed Ukraine like the treaty led Ukraine to believe.

Actual text "the “Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.”

https://theintercept.com/2022/02/27/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-russia-invasion/

Similar thing happened to Libya; Gaddaffi disarmed, then got lynched while those who signed treaties with him did nothing. Slightly different situation, given it was his people who did it, but both serve as clear examples - giving up nukes is a bad idea for longevity

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ezbee

2358 posts

Uber Geek

#2879888 6-Mar-2022 17:27

Apparently Germany is not top of list of countries dependent on green Russian Gas.

Its a long list... If this is accurate representation, I thought Germany was at top.

Share of gas supply from Russia in Europe in 2020, by selected country
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

tdgeek

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#2879895 6-Mar-2022 17:54

SJB:

tdgeek:

IMHO, unlike most conflicts, Putin wont cease illegal warfare, and he wont withdraw, even if his military experts said to. His idea of negotiation is put your weapons down.

They would quickly become his ex military experts.

True, possibly/probably likely. So if its one human, and Russian doesnt matter, he is a terrorist, they should change everything. Kim Jong Un is the same, one man , but he gets by with no power, dominating the people by the military. While Russians dont have unfettered access to the internet, some do, although thats being shut down as we speak. Putin needs to be declared a terrorist and harmful to the globe as well as Russians.

Or he has impunity

tdgeek

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#2879899 6-Mar-2022 18:03

Oldmanakbar: Call me optimistic.I really hope, assuming this actually ends without nukes being used, that we use it as a way to disarm the world from strategic nuclear weapons. We could start with lifting 1% of the sanctions for every 70 Russia gives up for destruction and move on from there. We are seeing in 4K HD how a lunatic who has them can hold the world to ransom. Pretty much the whole world (minus the usual suspects) is on one page for once, it would be dumb for us not to use the momentum and get something done. Climate change is already likely to be a winner with most of Europe suddenly deciding it can do without gas, get the right people in power and who knows...anyway, rose coloured glasses off now. We all know that isn't going to happen. With the amount of lethal military, financial and intelligence aid the west is providing to Ukraine, not to mention the sanctions that are economically wrecking Russia, war has pretty much already been declared. Just no one wants to be the first to admit it. The odd thing is that Putin hasn't reacted to it. Also, I must say the amount of information about what it going on at the moment being shown on mainstream media here is...lackluster?

I agree, but lacklustre?

I watch CNN on Sky and flick to Fox News (yes, I know but they are equally on side with Globe/NATO/US) Plenty of horror stories to watch. In some ways Id like Ukrainians to all leave, and blow up everything that Russia hasn't. Easy for me to say though

Something has to break. I guess Putler (a nickname I saw on the news today) needs to be gone, and sanctions will never be lifted until there is a peacekeeping Govt in place. Doesnt need to be democratic, it just needs to be peacekeeping and working for the population.

Im hoping that Mig 29's get rolled out from Poland, and more artillery. the west is free of Putler, so can he go after there as well as Ukraine is large, cannot be everywhere.

IMHO this is NOT the usual conflict that we have seen in the past, its a turning point.

gzt

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#2879900 6-Mar-2022 18:06

Morons harassing people of Russian descent in NZ. Russian Orthodox church vandalized:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/300532686/russian-kiwis-copping-abuse-and-harassment-in-wake-of-ukraine-invasion

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