Chris Hipkins, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

To post in this sub-forum you must have made 100 posts or have Trust status or have completed our ID Verification

Forums › Politics › Chris Hipkins, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

1 | ... | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60

1726 posts

Uber Geek

#3114720 11-Aug-2023 16:20

ockel:

as was pointed out during the debate/discussion, this Government collected more in taxation than any Government in NZ history. And spent more than any other Government. There was a spending blip for Covid but instead of returning to trend the spending has just kept increasing off a higher base.

Surely it's only ever going to go up? Haven't we grown by 800,000 in the past decade?

MyHeritage

Shop MyHeritage and uncover your origins and find new relatives with a simple DNA test. (affiliate link).

ockel

1949 posts

Uber Geek

#3114770 11-Aug-2023 16:44

mudguard:

ockel:

as was pointed out during the debate/discussion, this Government collected more in taxation than any Government in NZ history. And spent more than any other Government. There was a spending blip for Covid but instead of returning to trend the spending has just kept increasing off a higher base.

Surely it's only ever going to go up? Haven't we grown by 800,000 in the past decade?

Our tax revenue has doubled from 2013 to 2022 - our population hasnt doubled in that time. Our GDP hasnt doubled in that time. The tax revenue of GDP has gone from 26% to 30%. We are paying significantly more tax as a proportion than we have historically. Would it surprise you to know that the last time we had tax as 30% of GDP it was 2008 which was when Labour was last in power. Leopard = spots.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

mudguard

1726 posts

Uber Geek

#3114775 11-Aug-2023 17:08

ockel:

Our tax revenue has doubled from 2013 to 2022 - our population hasnt doubled in that time. Our GDP hasnt doubled in that time. The tax revenue of GDP has gone from 26% to 30%. We are paying significantly more tax as a proportion than we have historically. Would it surprise you to know that the last time we had tax as 30% of GDP it was 2008 which was when Labour was last in power. Leopard = spots.

I guess doubling our population may not do much for our tax base if they are all children. Presumably most of the 800,000 increase are taxpayers rather than infants.

I'm not sure what the increased tax is from. I can't recall personal rates changing much? Or is it bracket creep? I know there is a change over $180k.

ockel

1949 posts

Uber Geek

#3114781 11-Aug-2023 17:41

mudguard:

ockel:

Our tax revenue has doubled from 2013 to 2022 - our population hasnt doubled in that time. Our GDP hasnt doubled in that time. The tax revenue of GDP has gone from 26% to 30%. We are paying significantly more tax as a proportion than we have historically. Would it surprise you to know that the last time we had tax as 30% of GDP it was 2008 which was when Labour was last in power. Leopard = spots.

I guess doubling our population may not do much for our tax base if they are all children. Presumably most of the 800,000 increase are taxpayers rather than infants.

I'm not sure what the increased tax is from. I can't recall personal rates changing much? Or is it bracket creep? I know there is a change over $180k.

Increased excise duty on fuel, alcohol, tobacco but at the margin. Its largely bracket creep but also increased GST/corporate tax (generally proportionate to GDP but GST on imported goods due to border collection for anything over deminimus). In the most recent year its the new bracket but apparently thats only 350m (of total tax of 108bn) and reduction in interest deductability.

And our population hasnt grown by more births/deaths - its a migration thing too which is broad base contribution.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

ockel

1949 posts

Uber Geek

#3115744 14-Aug-2023 15:38

Unsurprisingly the rate of NZ citizens leaving the country is accelerating with 18k departing in the 3m to June 2023 and 61k leaving in the 12m to June 2023.

Less than 2,000 citizens shy of the record departures of Q1 2001.

As a proud Kiwi I have never thought of ripping my kids out of their education and social circles, closing our business, abandoning our aging family, relocating overseas to start again until this year. Too many successful, educated and wealthy individuals heading out the door. Its kinda sad.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

ockel

1949 posts

Uber Geek

#3120201 25-Aug-2023 20:01

If a near-monopolist (with 80% domestic market share) posted a pre-tax Return on Invested Capital of 22% should it be subject to a Commerce Commission study?

That is that its Earnings before Interest and Tax relative to its debt and equity measured a return of 22% would it be subject to outrage?

If a landlord had a 22% return (net rent before tax and interest on its property value) it would be considered outrageous.

If a supermarket duopoly had a ROIC of 22% the Comcom would be incensed (a ROIC of 12.9& is considered excessive).

If a fuel oligarchy had a ROIC of 22% then there would be price consequences.

These industries can only dream of such monopoly type returns but are subject to BS competition studies.

But when a majority Govt owned airline has a pre-tax ROIC of 22% when every domestic flier knows that there is price gouging occurring....... crickets.

In the same week when the fully Govt owned bank posts a record profit - and net interest margins in excess of 2.5% (last seen in the mid 2000's) but more crickets.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

Technofreak

6104 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#3122416 31-Aug-2023 22:32

New Zealand's debt has doubled since 2017.

Out of 159 countries assessed by the IMF for economic growth for 2024 New Zealand ranked 158. The only country below New Zealand was Equatorial Guinea which is in the grips of a disease outbreak and a civil war. Doesn't say much for New Zealand and it's government.

Sony Xperia XA2 running Sailfish OS. https://sailfishos.org The true independent open source mobile OS
Samsung Galaxy Tab S6
Dell Inspiron 14z i5

Technofreak

6104 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#3122418 31-Aug-2023 22:40

ockel:

If a near-monopolist (with 80% domestic market share) posted a pre-tax Return on Invested Capital of 22% should it be subject to a Commerce Commission study?

That is that its Earnings before Interest and Tax relative to its debt and equity measured a return of 22% would it be subject to outrage?

If a landlord had a 22% return (net rent before tax and interest on its property value) it would be considered outrageous.

If a supermarket duopoly had a ROIC of 22% the Comcom would be incensed (a ROIC of 12.9& is considered excessive).

If a fuel oligarchy had a ROIC of 22% then there would be price consequences.

These industries can only dream of such monopoly type returns but are subject to BS competition studies.

But when a majority Govt owned airline has a pre-tax ROIC of 22% when every domestic flier knows that there is price gouging occurring....... crickets.

In the same week when the fully Govt owned bank posts a record profit - and net interest margins in excess of 2.5% (last seen in the mid 2000's) but more crickets.

Airlines are traditionally boom or bust and in boom times are very cash rich. I think if you look around the world you will find similar stories with other airlines. If you look at history you will see this has happened many times.

I agree some airline ticket prices might seem high but that's not the case on all routes.

On the flip side, have you tried booking tickets on some routes that Air NZ operates? The aircraft are usually pretty full on a lot of routes so people are obviously prepared to pay. If you are marketing any product you charge what the the market will bear. I'd suggest that's happening here.

Sony Xperia XA2 running Sailfish OS. https://sailfishos.org The true independent open source mobile OS
Samsung Galaxy Tab S6
Dell Inspiron 14z i5

gzt

15200 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#3122419 31-Aug-2023 22:51

Technofreak

No reference links?

Technofreak

6104 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#3122802 1-Sep-2023 22:58

gzt:
Technofreak

No reference links?

It's in data associated with the World Economic Outlook Report. There is no actual statement in the report giving our relationship to other countries. You have to dig into the data and look for yourself.

I haven't trawled through the details myself. I'm relying on information contained in financial updates I receive.

I'm pretty sure this is where it comes from.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/07/10/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2023

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April

Sony Xperia XA2 running Sailfish OS. https://sailfishos.org The true independent open source mobile OS
Samsung Galaxy Tab S6
Dell Inspiron 14z i5

itxtme

2051 posts

Uber Geek

#3123484 4-Sep-2023 11:32

Technofreak:

It's in data associated with the World Economic Outlook Report. There is no actual statement in the report giving our relationship to other countries. You have to dig into the data and look for yourself.

I haven't trawled through the details myself. I'm relying on information contained in financial updates I receive.

I'm pretty sure this is where it comes from.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/07/10/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2023

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April

Sounds to me like you need to get better "financial updates" then. The image you supply shows multpile countries with expected growth of <1% - we are not listed at all (in fact 95% are not there). OECD.org suggest our rate is going to be 1.2% (an actual source)

Can you explain where you got our growth at 159th rank?

ockel

1949 posts

Uber Geek

#3123486 4-Sep-2023 11:49

itxtme:

Technofreak:

It's in data associated with the World Economic Outlook Report. There is no actual statement in the report giving our relationship to other countries. You have to dig into the data and look for yourself.

I haven't trawled through the details myself. I'm relying on information contained in financial updates I receive.

I'm pretty sure this is where it comes from.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/07/10/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2023

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April

Sounds to me like you need to get better "financial updates" then. The image you supply shows multpile countries with expected growth of <1% - we are not listed at all (in fact 95% are not there). OECD.org suggest our rate is going to be 1.2% (an actual source)

Can you explain where you got our growth at 159th rank?

Interestingly Bruce Cotrerill referenced the same number and ranking. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/bruce-cotterill-my-pride-in-new-zealand-is-turning-to-embarrassment/LWAOEHFFLZEQZOOREUMM4JZRKM/

I ran the query through the April dataset - 196 countries GDP growth rates from 2021-2028. Showed NZ as being the 4 lowest for the 192 countries returned in the query. Looks fairly robust to me.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

itxtme

2051 posts

Uber Geek

#3123504 4-Sep-2023 13:00

But what data point are you looking at specifically? There are like 8 GDP calculation methods in there - and already you havent found any that show the rank as being discussed above. Looking back historically, they missed the German 2023 recession - not surprising given the geopolitics going on, but my point it we are in volatile times

Ultimately milk prices need to go up, not sure what the government can do about that given our biggest buyer has started producing their own using our tech and knowledge. Might be time to focus on selling value added milk products rather than raw powder.

ockel

1949 posts

Uber Geek

#3123508 4-Sep-2023 13:25

itxtme:

But what data point are you looking at specifically? There are like 8 GDP calculation methods in there - and already you havent found any that show the rank as being discussed above. Looking back historically, they missed the German 2023 recession - not surprising given the geopolitics going on, but my point it we are in volatile times

Ultimately milk prices need to go up, not sure what the government can do about that given our biggest buyer has started producing their own using our tech and knowledge. Might be time to focus on selling value added milk products rather than raw powder.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April

Choose countries. select all countries. Continue. GDP constant prices, percentage change. date range from 2021 to 2028. prepare report.

The downloaded report can be sorted by Year 2024, smallest to largest. NZ ranks as 4th smallest in a dataset of 192 countries where there is data.

Did we miss anything?

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

Technofreak

6104 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#3123611 4-Sep-2023 17:24

My comment was in reference to the IMF's GDP predictions for 2024.

Take a look in these tables at the the column for for 2024. There's only two entries below New Zealand, Equatorial Guinea and Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is technically not a country. The only country below New Zealand is Equatorial Guinea. We're second equal last with Italy.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/APAC/Issues/2023/04/11/regional-economic-outlook-for-asia-and-pacific-april-2023

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2023/04/13/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere-april-2023

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2023/04/14/regional-economic-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa-april-2023

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/EU/Issues/2023/04/09/regional-economic-outlook-for-europe-april-2023

I think my data is quite solid and the financial update I was quoting from was correct.

Sony Xperia XA2 running Sailfish OS. https://sailfishos.org The true independent open source mobile OS
Samsung Galaxy Tab S6
Dell Inspiron 14z i5

1 | ... | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60