Chris Hipkins, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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#3027805 27-Jan-2023 11:40

ockel:

Another member of the Labour Party that doesnt think they'll win their electorate seat this year....

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/483193/grant-robertson-goes-list-only-will-not-contest-wellington-central

Probably more this reason.

Robertson said, if re-elected later this year, he would want to focus almost exclusively on his responsibilities as minister of finance.

“As I contemplated this year’s election I thought about two previous ministers of finance. Sir Michael Cullen was a list MP while minister of finance and Sir Bill English became a list MP after six years as minister of finance,” Robertson said in a statement.

“There is a reason for that. Being minister of finance is a huge job, and does often draw you away from electorate responsibilities.”

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johno1234

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#3027810 27-Jan-2023 12:23

tdgeek:

ockel:

Another member of the Labour Party that doesnt think they'll win their electorate seat this year....

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/483193/grant-robertson-goes-list-only-will-not-contest-wellington-central

Probably more this reason.

Robertson said, if re-elected later this year, he would want to focus almost exclusively on his responsibilities as minister of finance.

“As I contemplated this year’s election I thought about two previous ministers of finance. Sir Michael Cullen was a list MP while minister of finance and Sir Bill English became a list MP after six years as minister of finance,” Robertson said in a statement.

“There is a reason for that. Being minister of finance is a huge job, and does often draw you away from electorate responsibilities.”

Not sure he is genuinely expecting to be on the treasury benches post October. Hope for the best but plan for the worst sounds more likely.

GV27

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#3027814 27-Jan-2023 12:31

tdgeek:

Probably more this reason.

Robertson said, if re-elected later this year, he would want to focus almost exclusively on his responsibilities as minister of finance.

“As I contemplated this year’s election I thought about two previous ministers of finance. Sir Michael Cullen was a list MP while minister of finance and Sir Bill English became a list MP after six years as minister of finance,” Robertson said in a statement.

“There is a reason for that. Being minister of finance is a huge job, and does often draw you away from electorate responsibilities.”

I didn't realise we were just taking politicians at face value now for things. Not that Robertson has ever said one thing that may or not have been a teeny weeny slight misrepresentation to his own benefit or to save face, I couldn't possibly suggest that.

What's more likely is he can see Labour face major credibility issues, he knows they're going to need a lolly scramble to get get over the line and he's going to have to sell a) the actual policies and b) how fiscally doable they are. It's going to mean spending less time campaigning locally and pre-Jacinda it would have only taken a 5K swing to win that seat for National. Willis is now Deputy Leader and Ardern is gone.

Interestingly, James Shaw has taken more votes off Robertson with each election in Wellington Central since 2014.

Having someone in your top five lose an electorate seat sends a message. It also means someone who got in on the list and was looking marginal now looks much more marginal.

tdgeek

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#3027825 27-Jan-2023 12:45

johno1234:

Not sure he is genuinely expecting to be on the treasury benches post October. Hope for the best but plan for the worst sounds more likely.

The odds are low. Possibly a bit better now, but still low. The reasons he gave are more than plausible and not uncommon for a Minister of Finance. If they win or they lose it makes no difference, apart from if they win, he loses the workload of the electorate

tdgeek

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#3027827 27-Jan-2023 12:48

GV27:

I didn't realise we were just taking politicians at face value now for things. Not that Robertson has ever said one thing that may or not have been a teeny weeny slight misrepresentation to his own benefit or to save face, I couldn't possibly suggest that.

What's more likely is he can see Labour face major credibility issues, he knows they're going to need a lolly scramble to get get over the line and he's going to have to sell a) the actual policies and b) how fiscally doable they are. It's going to mean spending less time campaigning locally and pre-Jacinda it would have only taken a 5K swing to win that seat for National. Willis is now Deputy Leader and Ardern is gone.

Interestingly, James Shaw has taken more votes off Robertson with each election in Wellington Central since 2014.

Having someone in your top five lose an electorate seat sends a message. It also means someone who got in on the list and was looking marginal now looks much more marginal.

We do that daily when politicians make statements. I think you will fins that lolly scrambles are offered by all

"he's going to have to sell a) the actual policies and b) how fiscally doable they are" Him, Ms Wiilis and the two Chris's will be doing that.

GV27

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#3027862 27-Jan-2023 13:39

tdgeek:

We do that daily when politicians make statements. I think you will fins that lolly scrambles are offered by all

"he's going to have to sell a) the actual policies and b) how fiscally doable they are" Him, Ms Wiilis and the two Chris's will be doing that.

Willis will also be contesting the seat, to the best of my knowledge.

You can't have a senior top-five MP losing an electorate seat, an incumbent Finance Minister, no less. Once that's a possibility, the switch to list-only is basically locked in. You can make up whatever reasons to justify it you like, but they don't hold water if the Deputy Leader of the opposition is actually following through on contesting that seat.

tdgeek

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#3027902 27-Jan-2023 15:00

GV27:

Willis will also be contesting the seat, to the best of my knowledge.

You can't have a senior top-five MP losing an electorate seat, an incumbent Finance Minister, no less. Once that's a possibility, the switch to list-only is basically locked in. You can make up whatever reasons to justify it you like, but they don't hold water if the Deputy Leader of the opposition is actually following through on contesting that seat.

The media will be all over it then. Unsure why its ok For Bill English or Michael Cullen but not GR?

I read she is contesting Ohariu? Not that its relevant. He doesn't want an electorate to take up time

GV27

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#3027919 27-Jan-2023 15:24

tdgeek:

The media will be all over it then. Unsure why its ok For Bill English or Michael Cullen but not GR?

I read she is contesting Ohariu? Not that its relevant. He doesn't want an electorate to take up time

So she is! I wonder if that might change. If she doesn't, and Labour choose a lesser-known, then Shaw might have a real shot at that seat. Interesting. Could work out for Labour after all if it's an Epsom deal by another name.

As for English - he wasn't losing Clutha Southland to anyone at that point. Cullen had been list-only for some time from memory?

tdgeek

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#3027974 27-Jan-2023 18:19

GV27:

So she is! I wonder if that might change. If she doesn't, and Labour choose a lesser-known, then Shaw might have a real shot at that seat. Interesting. Could work out for Labour after all if it's an Epsom deal by another name.

As for English - he wasn't losing Clutha Southland to anyone at that point. Cullen had been list-only for some time from memory?

The media says its a safe seat. Not me, the media. But to be honest, it doesnt matter. I feel his reasons are plausible. And repeated by Cullen and English. MoF is huge, and arguably its never been as huge. GFC, pfffft. Today is huge.

If Labour loses which is highly likely, no issue. If Labour wins, no issue. Either way, GR has no electorate to worry about. MoF or Opposition Finance is big in todays era. I will probably be decreed as defensive but thats how I see it. No biggie. The media dont seem bothered.

End of the day we have a democracy. If National wins im fine with that, I dont have an emotional or financial benefit, same if Labour wins. Obviously I see other benefits in my current thoughts.

Personally my issue is Grant Robertson vs Paul Goldsmith, revised to Nicola Willis. It might seem facetious to say Bring Back Bill, but IMHO that needs to happen. Labour isnt high on skill, National is worse. In some ways its good to have the two major parties quite young. Fresh.Todays generation. The older white males boys club are gone or going. Concern that Judith Collins has risen well up the ranks though.

Let it play out

Eitsop

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#3028028 27-Jan-2023 21:18

They are talking about allowing more immigrants into NZ to fill jobs.

But what houses are they going to buy or rent? we hardly have enough for who we have now?

Bluntj

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#3028618 28-Jan-2023 23:02

tdgeek:

johno1234:

Not sure he is genuinely expecting to be on the treasury benches post October. Hope for the best but plan for the worst sounds more likely.

The odds are low. Possibly a bit better now, but still low. The reasons he gave are more than plausible and not uncommon for a Minister of Finance. If they win or they lose it makes no difference, apart from if they win, he loses the workload of the electorate

A year in politics is a long time...so is 9 months. Anything can still happen.

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#3029749 30-Jan-2023 18:54

Okay, have to say I wasn't expecting this to happen. Yes, 9 months from the next election but this changes things somewhat:

https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/01/30/first-poll-results-with-chris-hipkins-as-pm-revealed/

Also: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/01/newshub-reid-research-poll-chris-hipkins-is-labour-s-saviour-but-hung-parliament-on-cards-for-election-2023.html

Some opinion/analysis: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/claire-trevett-jacinda-who-a-chipper-chippy-as-first-polls-give-prime-minister-chris-hipkins-a-dream-start-and-christopher-luxon-a-fright/23OODA6PE5FEDNOYXYHDKGIF3A/ (paywalled)

tdgeek

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#3029760 30-Jan-2023 19:19

quickymart:

Okay, have to say I wasn't expecting this to happen. Yes, 9 months from the next election but this changes things somewhat:

https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/01/30/first-poll-results-with-chris-hipkins-as-pm-revealed/

Its usual for a new entrant to get votes, as perceived as better. He has made some excellent speeches as regards his direction, and NZ's latest disaster will help as we have seen many times over. Not that he's been front and centre, but Im picking some head hunting. Yes, he looks good, but its been a week. But its certainly a different ballgame now

Politics is in quite a good place now IMO.