2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3273031 17-Aug-2024 21:13

kingdragonfly: Big tough Vance say "stop calling me weird, or I'll tell my new step-daddy on you!" :)

The Hill: Vance says Democrats are engaging in ‘schoolyard bully’ attacks

I can't find it now, but I saw another version of this meme that went along the lines of James saying "Democrats are bullying me" and someone responding with "Crooked Hillary, Birdbrain and Lyin' Ted would like a word, JD":

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quickymart

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#3273056 18-Aug-2024 08:42

A couple of weekend reads:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/08/17/doug-sosnik-q-a-kamala-harris-00174479

^ looks at how much things have changed since Harris stepped into the race. This part was interesting (is it really a thing?):

And then, of course, I think there’s the Trump effect. I think for young people in general, particularly women, in [Trump’s] views, on the issues and how he talks about women, I think he’s really pushed them into the Democratic Party.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sun-belt-states-look-more-competitive-for-harris-according-to-new-polls/ar-AA1oYd3p?cvid=191a0bb586ca4754c48381c030a95fb0&ei=16

^ polling shows some of the Sun Belt states are starting to get close. If Harris can keep up this momentum I can see the orange buffoon getting (quite a bit more) upset 😀

TeaLeaf

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#3273201 18-Aug-2024 11:34

quickymart:

polling shows some of the Sun Belt states are starting to get close.

Thanks for the links.

Yes indeed, in fact latest Polling I would say arizona has gone to Harris as has North Carolina, Nevada and Florida are both close and well within range of margin for error.

Momentum is pretty much everything now. I do wonder if the Judge on the NY hush money felonies is going to pander to Trump and postpone sentencing until after Elections. Im not sure how much it matters either way now the damage is done, but an ankle bracelet plus a PO two hour meeting every time he wants to leave the state could help a little more, especially as it would send the loony over the edge :-).

Back to polling and momentum, Harris unfavourability is down to just +3.3, she could soon be the first Favourable net positive candidate in a loooong time. Meanwhile Trump is continuing to grow more unfavourable after to getting down to +8.2 sometime just after the debate, hes back up to +9.6. So these are too very important momentum trends.

You also have Harris continue her General Election poll average lead, now up to +2.5, another momentum state to keep an eye on. Clinton and Biden were on their way down at this point after notching up considerable leads, Harris is continung to trend up. Maybe the US could learn like every normal country it doesn't need a 6month election cycle ;-p

So momentum is continuing to rise, its going to take something extraordinary for Trump to win from here, Harris is owning and winning both the Border and Economics debate and stats from Republicans have shown that since she took over from Biden, clearly not in the positive but a substantial change in opinions.

One thing Im curious about now is who will start jumping the Trump ship first? as well as what will Harris do with RFK jr's proposal to leave the race if she offers him a role. The guy is crazy, but hes not dumb. Id not want him near Health, but something else could work. But it really depends, she has taken half his voters not just some of Trumps, would they swing toward her regardless and where would those remaining head, to Trump or Harris, given they are likely the conspiracy crazies not the protest intended voters which I think Harris swept up..... conundrum.

gzt

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#3273210 18-Aug-2024 12:28

The last thing the democratic party needs is a Marjorie Taylor Green. RFK is nuts.

Rikkitic

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#3273211 18-Aug-2024 12:35

gzt: The last thing the democratic party needs is a Marjorie Taylor Green. RFK is nuts.

Not even an issue. Even the Retrumplicans are not dumb enough to accept his bribe. She wouldn't consider it for a moment, but if she did, it would be instant suicide.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#3273221 18-Aug-2024 13:22

gzt: The last thing the democratic party needs is a Marjorie Taylor Green. RFK is nuts.

I have a feeling RFK is going to endorse Trump and 'help out'

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#3273265 18-Aug-2024 17:00

Thanks quickymart and TeaLeaf for all the ‘stats’ and importantly, interpreting them.

Please keep doing so as I for one failed my stats component at uni. Never was good at maths anyway.

Thanks.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

kingdragonfly

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#3273267 18-Aug-2024 17:03

Like a fox guarding the henhouse, Tina Peters is a Republican Trump supporter and a former Clerk and Recorder for Colorado state. She was found guilty of mishandling and unauthorized disclosure of sensitive election data.

She illegally distributed confidential information about voting machines and election systems

Four of the guilty charges are felonies, raising the prospect of significant prison time.

The guilty charges include first-degree official misconduct, three counts of attempting to influence a public servant and violation of duty.

There are broad concerns about the integrity of the US electoral process. It seems to be "the serial killer's in the house", Republican dirty tricks.

Colorado Newsline: A jury found Colorado County Clerk Tina Peters guilty. Her legal troubles might not be over.

More than three years after Tina Peters took part in a scheme to prove a false theory of fraud in her own elections office, the former Mesa County clerk has been held to account.

As of this week, Peters is a felon. She gave a California man access to some of the most sensitive data on her county’s election machines and deceived state public officials about his identity. A Grand Junction jury found that the 68-year-old Republican election denier’s actions constituted serious crimes and pronounced her guilty on seven counts.

Peters is Colorado’s most notorious “big lie” believer, and her place in the firmament of MAGA bandits was cemented by national press attention and her association with prominent election conspiracists like MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell. This week’s verdict advances the country’s reckoning with the harm that came from misinformation around the 2020 election and former President Donald Trump’s false claims that he won.

It joins the suspension in May of former Trump attorney Jenna Ellis’ law license in Colorado, as well as the criminal prosecution of those accused of interfering in the election on Trump’s behalf around the country, in reassuring Americans that their institutions, in some cases, are still capable of impartial feats of democracy and justice.

And there is reason to believe more criminal charges could come Peters’ way.
...

quickymart

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#3273272 18-Aug-2024 17:12

Hope she's not related to Winston.

quickymart

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#3273282 18-Aug-2024 18:03

FineWine:

Thanks quickymart and TeaLeaf for all the ‘stats’ and importantly, interpreting them.

Please keep doing so as I for one failed my stats component at uni. Never was good at maths anyway.

Thanks.

Some more numbers for you, this time concerning James's popularity (or lack thereof): https://newrepublic.com/article/184978/brutal-new-poll-jd-vance-reveals-big-trump-maga-weakness

Even more striking is how various groups see Vance:

He is viewed favorably by only 24 percent of independents, versus 39 percent unfavorably.
He is viewed favorably by only 23 percent of self-described moderates, versus 41 percent unfavorably.
He is viewed favorably by only 22 percent of 18- to 39-year-olds, versus 44 percent unfavorably.
He is viewed favorably by only 32 percent of women, versus 40 percent unfavorably (interestingly, Vance fares a tad worse among men).
He is viewed favorably by only 28 percent of Hispanics, versus 39 percent unfavorably.
He is viewed favorably by only 9 percent of Blacks, versus 50 percent unfavorably.
He is viewed favorably by only 32 percent of suburbanites, versus 42 percent unfavorably.
He is viewed favorably by only 33 percent of college-educated whites, versus a striking 55 percent unfavorably.

By contrast, Walz is viewed positively on net by those groups—though his favorable ratings are clearly not high enough among them yet.

Unsurprisingly, Vance is viewed positively by non-college whites (+9 points), rural voters (+13 points), and white evangelicals (+37 points). This is the trade-off that Trump made in picking Vance: Brimming with certainty that he would win by a landslide before Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate, Trump chose a running mate who would juice his base, with little concern about his lack of appeal to voters outside it. That hubris, a key weakness of MAGA, has, by encouraging the Vance pick, seemingly produced a serious mistake.

I have no doubt the MAGA crowd just love James to death, and (to them) he's the next big thing in politics. Outside of the MAGA base? Not so much.

quickymart

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#3273296 18-Aug-2024 19:27

Another good read from The New Republic: https://newrepublic.com/article/184951/donald-trump-flailing-harris

You know how they say in sports that an opponent has gotten inside the other team’s head? Well, Harris and Tim Walz have certainly gotten inside Trump’s head. Walz’s “weird” comment, which Trump has also responded to in a, well, sort of weird way, was just the start. Harris has also smartly refused to take the GOP campaign’s bait, like when Trump attacked her race and J.D. Vance tried to make her childlessness an issue. Meanwhile, the Harris-Walz campaign trolls Trump in its press releases with snarky language I don’t recall Joe Biden’s or Hillary Clinton’s campaigns using. It sends the message, which must drive him nuts, that they don’t fear him at all.

I'm glad they don't. I don't think Biden "feared" Trump as such, either - just he wasn't very good at showing it or expressing it. Kamala is totally the opposite, however.

TeaLeaf

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#3273302 18-Aug-2024 20:05

FineWine:

Thanks quickymart and TeaLeaf for all the ‘stats’ and importantly, interpreting them.

Please keep doing so as I for one failed my stats component at uni. Never was good at maths anyway.

Thanks.

You're welcome, I love stats, because they tell a story. The story right now imo is Haris would win first to 270 provided there was no interference at the Election Official level, but it seems things are being done about it.
dont think they fit with Trumps kind of crazies. But it needs to be considered obviously :-)

quickyma

RFK jr is holding onto his type of crazy, Irt:

It sends the message, which must drive him nuts, that they don’t fear him at all.

Yes there is no fear, she is courageous and trolls him constantly which is enjoyable to read and watch.

Going off her YT account, they have only used the one advert comparing what she wants to Trump trying to avoid prison etc. IMO they need to bring more of those type of adverts burying his character and his intentions.

TeaLeaf

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#3273389 19-Aug-2024 10:40

JD Vance compares Harris to Jeffrey Epstein and claims polls showing Trump losing are ‘fake’ | The Independent

Vance has lost his lollies. Hes gone a bit far this time with what some headlines have said, Vance compares Harris to Epstein. What he said was “Giving Kamala Harris control over inflation policy, it’s like giving Jeffrey Epstein control over human trafficking policy”

I suppose it is technically a comparison. But its tacky, completely off the rails immoral to say and shows he will do/say literally anything to get some points back off her. But kinda green lights Harris campaign to use all the unclassified Trump/Epstein travel logs, communication and images. That might be going a bit to far, not sure if it is against laws either, but then Id have thought what Vance said is straight out defamation. Either way, Walz as her attack dog can bring it against Trump.

Sen (R) Lindsay Graham admitted Trump will likely lose the election if he does not stick to Policies (big ask given his record during a rally/speech is about 20min on topic) . He said the Trump policies are far better economically for the American people. I personally don't think so, in fact far worse if you factor in the Tariffs on cost of living. Besides which this election has a lot more than economics on the line and US "people" know it now. He also didnt factor in Harris is explaining Border and Economics with substance, compassion and enthusiasm to fix it for those still feeling the pinch. She also has the Biden/Harris economic record of overwhelming economic growth on US Businesses and record unemployment, DURING an unprecedented Pandemic and its associated Recession. Quite remarkable and far better than anything Trump did in is proven record as President, people just need constant reminding of what He was like and that the World has just gone through a pandemic etc.

CBS ran two sizeable (~3000LV) concurrent polls, one without indies. The one with indies had Harris +2 the one without RFK jr etc was +3.

Wisconsin has become rather tight, its a coin toss right now, with Harris looking about +1-2 up, but obviously within range of error.

Keep in mind each poller has a non perfect record, some lean heavily one way or the other. Im pretty sure Trump would like to be using the ones that lean red, but Ill have to go through them later to see if there is anything in that.

Trump campaign is looking to shift gears this week while the DNC occurs. So hes holding his own mini RNC at his Hotel in Chicago, same city, in an attempt to blunt Harris/Walz momentum. I wonder how many people will have care factor. Pretty low life tactic, but it will be worth it if it fails :-)

Election 2024 live updates: Harris, Walz wrap up Pennsylvania bus tour as Trump plans DNC counter events in Chicago | The Independent

Note the ai generated image of Kamilla in front of a USSR soldiers with USSR flags but with Chicago neon sign in Red, posted by Trump on "Truth Social". LOW life.

Edit: Just noted Harris has booked a $370M advertising campaign blitz across the 7 key swing states. Goody, cant wait to see them. I hope they just point out the basics on Trump like that "Border" ad does, I'm sure it will be in the mix. I believe they will commence after the 2nd of September.

MurrayM

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#3273475 19-Aug-2024 12:41

kingdragonfly: Big tough Vance say "stop calling me weird, or I'll tell my new step-daddy on you!" :)

The Hill: Vance says Democrats are engaging in ‘schoolyard bully’ attacks

Senator JD Vance said in a Sunday interview that Democrats are engaging in “schoolyard bully” attacks by calling the GOP ticket “weird.”

Oh the poor snowflake!

gzt

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#3273481 19-Aug-2024 13:21

What he said was “Giving Kamala Harris control over inflation policy, it’s like giving Jeffrey Epstein control over human trafficking policy”

Just pointless trolling trying desperately to get some attention.

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