2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3284722 21-Sep-2024 09:10

For Elon Musk: A joke typically has three components: setup, punchline, and timing

Perhaps you should make that trip to Mars you've been talking about. That's in 2026 right?

Bloomberg: Secret Service Probing Musk’s Post About Threats to Biden and Harris

Musk may have poked the bear one too many times.

On Sunday, shortly after the second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, an X account called DogeDesigner posed the question, “Why they want to kill Donald Trump?”

Musk responded to his 198 million followers: “And no one is even trying to assassinate Biden/Kamala,” he wrote, adding a ???? at the end of his post. Musk later deleted the post after it was widely condemned and said it was intended as a joke. But it was already seen by tens of millions, including the Secret Service.
...
Rina Sawayama
STFU!

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#3284768 21-Sep-2024 12:29

The Washington Post - Pro-Trump Georgia election board votes to require hand counts of ballots

20 Sep 2024

ATLANTA - The Georgia State Election Board approved a rule Friday requiring counties in the critical presidential battleground to hand-count the total number of ballots* this year, potentially upending the November election by delaying the reporting of results.

The move was spearheaded by a pro-Trump majority that has enacted a series of changes to the state’s election rules in recent weeks and approved the hand-count requirement despite a string of public commenters who begged board members not to.

Critics included democracy advocates who accused the board of intentionally injecting chaos and uncertainty into the presidential contest, as well as election supervisors and poll workers who said hand counts would take too long, cost money and almost certainly produce counting errors. ...

Research and practice have shown again and again that hand-counting of ballots is less accurate than machine tallies - and that it can take days, weeks or months, depending on the size of the jurisdiction. ...

[Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (Republican)] : “To underscore the absurdity of the timing of the Board’s actions, the ballots have already been printed, and counties will have already begun mailing absentee ballots to voters before any rule change would take effect.”

* ie ALL ballots to be counted by hand

[my bold]

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SJB

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#3284787 21-Sep-2024 13:37

I would imagine the board want the count to be inaccurate so that in the event Trump loses the result can be endlessly contested all the way to the SC.

ezbee

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#3284793 21-Sep-2024 13:51

They also want to delay and slow down the count especially in districts that don't favor them.

Counters in some states apparently wait for the trickle from 'voting on the day' booths,
while there are a large number of mail in and early votes that get counted 'after' everything else.

This allows them to push arguments its taking too long to count etc that was done last time.
The wailing on about the official result should be when Trump was leading at the start.

It also fuels the arguments about the late flush of votes from non Trump supporting areas and early voting moving the result so their must be trickery involved.

Give more arguments for challenges, and more justification for electors to submit a vote against the result, which has happened before.

Mr slow down the mail , and destroy mail handing machines is still in charge of Post service I think.

Supreme court can also get involved too perhaps.

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#3284927 22-Sep-2024 08:28

The Washington Post - What Trump has promised to do on ‘day one’ as president

21 Sep 2024

More than 200 ‘day one’ promises

Many of Trump’s promises fall outside the scope of a president’s authority under the Constitution, according to legal experts.

Some of those that are within his purview would face legal or logistical challenges that would make them all but impossible to carry out on a short timeline.

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quickymart

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#3285054 22-Sep-2024 13:47

TeaLeaf:

Last bit from the Independent I thought was funny live but supposedly its gone wild on SM, B Obama using a subtle hand gesture when discussing Trumps obsession with crowd sizes

Update on this (courtesy of Meidas Touch on Instagram):

neb

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#3285074 22-Sep-2024 15:08

quickymart: Update on this (courtesy of Meidas Touch on Instagram):

They're not walking out, they've just popped out for a hamberder and a covfefe, at which point the failing NY Times, which is run by communist fascists, took a photo [more rambling incoherence].

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#3285079 22-Sep-2024 15:36

Read All About It

This article gives detailed information about how The Times assessed crowd sizes. It includes some spectacular 360 degree images.

The NY Times - Trump Claims Harris’s Rallies Are Smaller. We Counted. (free unlocked link) (07 Sep 2024)

The analysis found that, despite Trump’s claims, both candidates draw comparably big audiences.

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kingdragonfly

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#3285197 22-Sep-2024 19:04

Words Matter

PoliticsGirl: “So Donald Trump recently said this about Vice President Kamla Harris”

Trump: “’somebody's got to explain this woman. There's a radical left Marxist communist fascist.”

PoliticsGirl: “So we can't keep doing this, all right. We can't just keep throwing around giant accusatory terms without any sense of what the words mean”
…

TeaLeaf

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#3285393 23-Sep-2024 11:23

With those crowd sizes, why did they not give same state sizes and max seating capacity?

Good ole Meidas touch proving what Harris said in debate but we have all seen it live in his Raillies.

anyway, we all know the only real polls are Voter Turnout, but I thought Id addd my two cent on current swing state of affairs.

If I had to pick right now in a fair fight, I would say harris wins, but its so tight. Both sides need an October surprise. But Harris holds 8/12 battleground states at this point, but both sides have states with slim leads, however Trump has none right now +5.

If Harris holds WI, MI, PA thats 270. However there are other states she currently holds in the polls and a couple of tight ones to Trump, so it could work out very very different.

2024 Presidential Election Polls - Includes Electoral College — Race to the WH
For up to date avgs in all swing states etc, scroll down to Polling Lead Snapshot - Swing States. But up the top is the 30 most recent polls which you can click on to read if of interest.

Its all riding on momentum, voter turn out and those that refuse to be polled.

also the swing state advertisements, which Trmp is ruthless with and pinning how terrible the US is now on Harris, imo she needs to hit back on economy and making sure people know Trump squashed the border bill so he can do what he is now, campaign on it.

Harris could really use a mid October bump, event etc to keep momentum running.

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#3285830 24-Sep-2024 15:10

The NY Times - Trump Shows Signs of Strength in Sun Belt Battlegrounds

23 Sep 2024

New polls from The New York Times and Siena College showed Donald J. Trump ahead in Arizona and leading in tight races in Georgia and North Carolina.

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ezbee

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#3285832 24-Sep-2024 15:18

We have the grand Gerrymander of electoral college, then work over decades Gerrymandering voting districts within states, now we add this.

Democracy Diverted: Polling Place Closures and the Right to Vote
https://civilrights.org/democracy-diverted/

""
In this report, we found 1,688 polling place closures between 2012 and 2018, almost double the 868 closures found in our 2016 report.
""
Texas, a state where 39 percent of the population is Latino and 12 percent is African American, has closed 750 polling places since Shelby, by far the most of any state in our study.

Arizona, a state where 30 percent of the population is Latino, 4 percent is Native American, and 4 percent is African American, has the most widespread reduction (–320) in polling places

Georgia, a state where 31 percent of the population is African American and 9 percent is Latino, has 214 fewer polling places. Georgia stands out because its counties have closed higher percentages of voting locations than any other state in our study.

For many people, and particularly for voters of color, older voters, rural voters, and voters with disabilities, these burdens make it harder — and sometimes impossible — to vote.
""

Plus.
Efforts to remove people from the rolls so they have to go to extra steps to register votes that will be subject to extra vetting and counted late.

Given the low turnouts in elections if people just turn up then they can overcome this with numbers but sowing despair seems to work in encouraging sometimes 40% or more not to bother.

TeaLeaf

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#3285912 24-Sep-2024 19:56

With what has happened in NC in the Governor race the last few days, it will be interesting if that impacts the GE in that state.

Purely theoretical via poll avgs, RTWH has Harris Elec College down to 276.

But Polls are just too close to call with so many states polling within margin of error for either side, its all voter turn out in the final stretch.

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#3285936 24-Sep-2024 21:55

I have seen some commentary saying all the bs going on with that Robinson clown is going to hurt Trump, and conversely I have seen other commentary saying there isn't usually a "flow-up effect". So I don't know.

Would be nice if Harris did win North Carolina though - that would get the orange buffoon absolutely livid 😀

TeaLeaf

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#3286038 25-Sep-2024 08:51

quickymart:

I have seen some commentary saying all the bs going on with that Robinson clown is going to hurt Trump, and conversely I have seen other commentary saying there isn't usually a "flow-up effect". So I don't know.

Yeh same here, not sure what to make of it, other than its a bad look for Repubs. Its worth watching the accusations and what he has said though, bizarre.

So that North Carolina poll over night of +1% to Dems has flipped NC in RTWH EC Sim with the avg back to Harris +0.01%, which pushes their simulation based on avgs (which is not to be relied upon for results obviously, imo) for Electoral College back to 292. That is how close it is. I would not want to be betting on this election personally.

Of the 12 BG/Swing states, averages have Trump ahead on 4 with Texas 5.0%, Florida 3.9%, Arizona 1.1%, Georgia 1.1%.

2024 Presidential Election Polls - Includes Electoral College — Race to the WH

Harris is well out in front with the youth vote. Trump has a big base though and people who just vote red no matter what. Its the final stretch and the grass roots campaigns could be oh so important.

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