NZ 2023 Election Thread

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2528 posts

Uber Geek

#3120577 26-Aug-2023 13:14

quickymart:

sir1963:

Mother Teresa

https://gwern.net/doc/rotten.com/library/bio/religion/mother-teresa/index.html

I think David Seymour needs a bit of a break from campaigning. He's made a few (minor) slip ups lately, neither of which will cost him my vote.

His latest gaffe, saying in a speech... "I daresay if Nelson Mandela was alive today he would be campaigning for Act."

Another individual who seems to be remembered fondly, despite a rather troubling history.

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Rikkitic

Awrrr
17253 posts

Uber Geek

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#3120594 26-Aug-2023 14:58

SirHumphreyAppleby:

Another individual who seems to be remembered fondly, despite a rather troubling history.

He is remembered fondly because of who he became, not who he was.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Technofreak

6110 posts

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#3121042 28-Aug-2023 08:56

Hipkins can't find anything positive to promote Labour's election chances so starts fearmongering instead. He's getting desperate.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-desperate-time-warp-chaos-insults-fly-as-parliament-enters-last-week/WILXI64N6JDFBDCXIG2UQUQCM4/

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GV27

5429 posts

Uber Geek

#3121048 28-Aug-2023 09:16

Technofreak:

Hipkins can't find anything positive to promote Labour's election chances so starts fearmongering instead. He's getting desperate.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-desperate-time-warp-chaos-insults-fly-as-parliament-enters-last-week/WILXI64N6JDFBDCXIG2UQUQCM4/

Months of this panic ahead of us. Just nonsense from a visionless party who know they've spent so much that they can't afford to even throw a lolly scramble anymore.

sen8or

1611 posts

Uber Geek

#3121086 28-Aug-2023 10:47

That reads a bit like Hipkins trying to say he would like to fire someone months after they already quit, its a moot point.

No party in history leads divisiveness like Labour so I find it a bit rich for Hipkins to try and use that as a tactic. I suppose if you sling enough mud, something is going to stick somewhere.

sen8or

1611 posts

Uber Geek

#3121511 29-Aug-2023 10:17

And now Grant Robertson has found a spare $4bio in cost reductions from the budget, just in time for the election. Better late than never I guess, but its pretty symptomatic with the tax and spend philosophy they've lived by for the last 5 1/2 years...

GV27

5429 posts

Uber Geek

#3121522 29-Aug-2023 10:52

sen8or:

And now Grant Robertson has found a spare $4bio in cost reductions from the budget, just in time for the election. Better late than never I guess, but its pretty symptomatic with the tax and spend philosophy they've lived by for the last 5 1/2 years...

Why isn't this being portrayed as public services being slashed? After all, cutting spending = bad bad bad!, right?

GV27

5429 posts

Uber Geek

#3121526 29-Aug-2023 11:12

Sounds like we are getting National's tax policy tomorrow.

ockel

1949 posts

Uber Geek

#3121550 29-Aug-2023 11:45

sen8or:

And now Grant Robertson has found a spare $4bio in cost reductions from the budget, just in time for the election. Better late than never I guess, but its pretty symptomatic with the tax and spend philosophy they've lived by for the last 5 1/2 years...

Its a farcical announcment. The 11 month financial statements were published on 5 June. They showed a $2.3bn revenue shortfall compared to the May budget (yes just weeks earlier). Spending was little different to budgeted amounts. Any prudent financial manager would have publicly announced an immediate need to find cost savings.

What has been announced is $1bn pa over the next 4 years. To put that in context its 0.75% of annual spending. Its not even a rounding error. If we followed trend line spending from pre-Covid (ie returned to levels after an exogenous shock) then our core Crown spending should be between $95-$100bn as opposed to $128bn (FY23 - largely already spent) and $136bn (FY24 Budget).

ie Budgets need to be slashed by at least 10% and more like 20% get rid of the rebased spending post-Covid. Thats at least $14bn per annum, not $1bn per annum. And it should have started in 2022 rather than continue with expansionary fiscal stimulus that continues to feed inflation. Complete stuff up by the MisManagementMinister of Finance.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

SirHumphreyAppleby

2528 posts

Uber Geek

#3121608 29-Aug-2023 14:55

Handle9:

Things are going to get pretty interesting after Rawiri Waititi said in parliament today:

...

https://ondemand.parliament.nz/parliament-tv-on-demand/?itemId=236175

While I didn't comment at the time, I didn't agree with the Speaker appearing to criticise Seymour for raising this as a point of order. At least after review, the Speaker has agreed that action was needed. Better late than never, I guess.

Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi suspended from Parliament

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/te-pati-maori-co-leader-rawiri-waititi-suspended-from-parliament/3ER5AKF7SFARBLHUBUBR24NXMM/

GV27

5429 posts

Uber Geek

#3121758 30-Aug-2023 08:29

National tax day.

Sneaking suspicion the figures you see in the papers atm are including total relief like daycare subsidies that many may not qualify for.

Which is a bit sus if so, given you need two working parents to pay an Auckland mortgage, which triggers the actual need for daycare in the first place.

tdgeek

28622 posts

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#3121797 30-Aug-2023 10:10

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/election-2023-live-updates-national-unveils-long-awaited-tax-policy.html

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/election-2023-tax-expert-questions-where-national-will-get-billions-of-dollars-from-to-fund-expensive-tax-policy.html

How are they to be paid for? Four new revenue gathering areas (i.e. taxes) but they wont say. About as transparent as my bathroom window! No matter who promises/gifts/bribes baubles for the voters, they need to be funded and we need to be told how. Could be cuts, new taxes, borrowing, just let us know

sen8or

1611 posts

Uber Geek

#3121815 30-Aug-2023 10:52

So the details are out -

(Snip from NZ Herald https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/watch-live-national-unveils-tax-plan-as-chris-hipkins-attacks-national-for-fudging-numbers-to-make-them-look-bigger/IMWYSQWTB5ELVFJLRNSJL4XTR4/)

The plan includes four main tax changes, three of which trigger on 1 July 2024.

These are:

Shifting income tax brackets to compensate for inflation
Expanding tax credits to reach more modest income earners
Introducing the FamilyBoost childcare tax credit
Increasing Working for Families tax credits for working families (from 1 April 2024).

Against expectation, the party has opted to have all of the main changes trigger at the first budget after the election, with the interest deductibility changes and Working for Families changes triggering earlier - the current fiscal year.

This contributes to the massive cost of the plan - $14b.

The party reckons a Foreign Buyer Tax would bring in about $700m. The party says it will keep the foreign buyer ban for homes worth less than $2m.

Homes worth more than $2m could be sold to foreign buyers but these would be taxed at 15 per cent.

Willis said the cost of the plan would be paid for through trough some spending cuts and tax hikes.

The spending cuts include:

$594 million on average per year reduction in spending on back-office functions in government departments, excluding non-core and frontline agencies
$400 million on average per year reduction in government spending on consultants
$590 million on average per year Climate Dividend, returning taxes raised on climate polluters to Kiwi families rather than giving subsidies to large corporates.

The tax hikes include:

$740 million on average per year from introducing a 15 per cent foreign buyer tax on purchase of houses worth over $2 million
$525 million on average per year from ending the commercial building depreciation tax break
$179 million on average per year from closing a tax loophole and ensuring offshore operators delivering online gambling to New Zealanders, pay tax
$123 million on average per year from moving to user-pays immigration levies, excluding tourist visas. Labour has itself looked at closing the loophole for online gambling, but reckons it is difficult.

Some interesting tidbits

- The Greens are going to hate it, returning climate change revenue back to NZ.

- I think their estimation of $740mio in income from allowing foreign buyers to buy property is optimistic, but depends on how NZ real estate stacks up globally (it could still be cheap even after the tax?), but it will be lost money as they wont very well be able to recoup the tax paid from a NZ buyer.

- Additional taxes seem very target specific including the depreciation on commercial buildings. Seems very "anti business" for a party supposedly only in it for the rich business mates.

- Really jumping into labours end of the political pool, offering targeted support to lower / middle income earners.

- Tax bracket changes - The $14,000 threshold will rise to $15,600; the $48,000 threshold will rise to $53,500 and the $70,000 threshold will rise to $78,100.

All up, seems pretty fair on first quick glance, but I am sure there will be much scrutiny

tdgeek

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#3121821 30-Aug-2023 11:08

If the numbers eventuate. And IIRC this is a one off, so we will move forward year upon year with no alignment of tax thresholds to inflation, that will like the past, continue to grow

Its buying votes which they all want to do, so future decades will mirror the last ones

When are policy announcements for housing affordability, climate change, inflation, infrastructure, health and education due?

JPNZ

1202 posts

Uber Geek

#3121824 30-Aug-2023 11:26

tdgeek:

If the numbers eventuate. And IIRC this is a one off, so we will move forward year upon year with no alignment of tax thresholds to inflation, that will like the past, continue to grow

You maybe missed this part?

"National is promising to:

Inflation adjust income tax brackets.

This would mean income tax brackets would move as inflation moves, delivering tax cuts for all workers - not just families or low income workers."

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