NZ 2023 Election Thread

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466 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3126156 11-Sep-2023 17:04

quickymart:

If these poll results hold to Election Day, it's looking like National and Act all on their own. I may grit my teeth and make my first tactical vote ever this year - anything to keep Winston (who has been in cahoots with the anti-vaxx crowd - see here for more info) out of Parliament. I don't like Luxon but like Winston even less, although I fancy I read somewhere today that Luxon said he wouldn't work with him.

Also there's bs like this: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/winston-peters-promises-millions-in-compensation-to-vax-injured-and-people-mandated-out-of-work/3656DKDNVJE6HC6HBMNQFD27SE/

How many people are really "vaccine injured" in NZ? Hundreds? Thousands? Millions? And as for compensating those mandated out of their jobs for refusing the vaccine, he can get stuffed.

Good luck with that one.

Luxon refuses rule out working with Winston, despite being asked again and again for weeks, and is now also refusing to rule out working with Anti-Vaxxers! 😬

The thought of what this guy might be prepared to give up in post election negotiations gets scarier by the day.

And the difference between NZF getting 5% instead of 4.5% is huge, is it not?

Instead of a 4.5% "wasted" vote effectively meaning a lower percentage required per MP for the other parties (currently to National/ACT's advantage) you end up with Winnie sitting there with six MPs.

Could quite easily be enough to see National/ACT finishing just short at 59-60 seats instead of 65-66.

At the same time, anyone on the Maori roll would be well advised to vote Te Pati Maori. If they can pull five of the Maori electorate seats compared to approx 2.5% of the general vote (worth 3 MPs) we'll end up with an overhang and a 122 MP parliament pushing the finish line out to 63.

Seems to me like there's a reasonable chance of Winnie spoiling somebody's victory celebrations.

quickymart

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#3126162 11-Sep-2023 17:26

Typical Winston, only in it for Number 1 😠

I was going to do a tactical vote for National, but I'm having second thoughts now.

gzt

16995 posts

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#3126183 11-Sep-2023 19:22

Green Party policy launch includes protecting 30% of the ocean. Reading further down I wonder if that headline is correct and this proposal/policy is protecting 30% of NZ EEZ.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/497687/greens-propose-healthy-ocean-act-independent-commission-to-protect-oceans

Personally, I love it. If you have ever been to the relatively tiny areas of no-take we have in NZ - like me you will be amazed just how alive with life those small areas are. It really is incredible.

gzt

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#3126185 11-Sep-2023 19:40

I like the Labour party policy to extend free basic dental care from 18 up to 30. It is sensible, and on the way to full basic coverage eventually I hope. The other thing I like about it - it will reduce some of the emergency dental care that occurs in hospitals at present. At the rate of increase it will never cover me but I'm not too worried about that.

gzt

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#3126187 11-Sep-2023 19:41

There is a definite need and probably in many cases ends up paid for retrospectively by winz and similar agencies instead of up front as regular care where it should be.

Bluntj

555 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3126219 11-Sep-2023 21:36

gzt: I like the Labour party policy to extend free basic dental care from 18 up to 30. It is sensible, and on the way to full basic coverage eventually I hope. The other thing I like about it - it will reduce some of the emergency dental care that occurs in hospitals at present. At the rate of increase it will never cover me but I'm not too worried about that.

I would prefer they fixed basic health first. But their record is fixing anything is just amazing.

gzt

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#3126222 11-Sep-2023 21:43

Is it just me missing it or are none of the parties really promoting their climate investment, climate tech, and climate tech agricultural policies?

I'm aware of the Blackrock investment and local office opening. That all seems oriented towards decarbonising the NZ economy and taking that new tech forward to realise it's potential that's always a good thing.

The thing I feel missing from policy sometimes is genuine pure research save the world stuff with practical applications. That is often led by universities working with talented engineers and spun off as clean tech and similar companies. Regardless I do think as a first world country we have a responsibility to pull more than our weight in this area.

I have the feeling the current government has started some potentially very good things in the climate area. But, this is a bread and butter type election for a lot of people and the pure research topic is not an easy one regardless of which party is raising it.

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GV27

5883 posts

Uber Geek

#3126304 12-Sep-2023 06:30

gzt:

The thing I feel missing from policy sometimes is genuine pure research save the world stuff with practical applications. That is often led by universities working with talented engineers and spun off as clean tech and similar companies. Regardless I do think as a first world country we have a responsibility to pull more than our weight in this area.

There is a painful reality that you can't spend up large without increasing taxes to pay for it and people are already copping it in that regard.

The other issue is that there are bits of the climate community who don't accept we'd have to start cracking a few eggs - namely big hydro schemes and other such projects because changing the environment in any way = bad; and at some point you have to decide whether the ancient habitat of the five breasted greater lesser warbling thrush lizard is more important than more clean energy capacity.

It's why I have to give props to the Greens for the promoting of solar. Their execution sucks, and as usual, it would end up being a massive gimme for households that would have to be pretty well-heeled to be able to afford it in the first place (e.g. own their own home AND have enough cash to throw at a system good enough to make it worth doing) but at least it's something. No one else is really talking about it.

tdgeek

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#3126306 12-Sep-2023 07:01

gzt: Is it just me missing it or are none of the parties really promoting their climate investment, climate tech, and climate tech agricultural policies?

I'm aware of the Blackrock investment and local office opening. That all seems oriented towards decarbonising the NZ economy and taking that new tech forward to realise it's potential that's always a good thing.

The thing I feel missing from policy sometimes is genuine pure research save the world stuff with practical applications. That is often led by universities working with talented engineers and spun off as clean tech and similar companies. Regardless I do think as a first world country we have a responsibility to pull more than our weight in this area.

I have the feeling the current government has started some potentially very good things in the climate area. But, this is a bread and butter type election for a lot of people and the pure research topic is not an easy one regardless of which party is raising it.

Agree, there is plenty of green stuff going on, thats great to see, but the green votes are largely already on board so less need to chase them. Unfortunately the green energy progress will stall on Oct 15

invisibleman18

1356 posts

Uber Geek

#3126432 12-Sep-2023 11:06

https://votecompass.tvnz.co.nz/nz2023

TVNZ survey to try and work out where you fit based on what's been announced/proposed so far.

SirHumphreyAppleby

2838 posts

Uber Geek

#3126459 12-Sep-2023 12:26

invisibleman18:

TVNZ survey to try and work out where you fit based on what's been announced/proposed so far.

Well, no surprises there. A little to the right of and slightly more conservative than the party I intend to vote for.

quickymart

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#3126480 12-Sep-2023 13:01

That was a really interesting survey and I think it was quite accurate for me (more left-wing). Thanks for sharing.

invisibleman18

1356 posts

Uber Geek

#3126496 12-Sep-2023 13:45

Pretty accurate for me, although the graph puts me a bit closer to the centre than I'd thought. Had the party I currently intend to vote for as my top one, but weirdly these things always seem to rank one I strongly dislike highly too.

quickymart

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#3126500 12-Sep-2023 13:55

Bomber has a few interesting predictions for the election: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/09/12/5-weeks-until-the-2023-election-winners-losers-predictions/

I was heartened by this part: What’s interesting looking at the TU Curia Polling is how little support for antivax extremists there really is. We have thought they were some shadow electorate with real clout, when the truth looks like they are radicalised loners who are shrill with little real electorate support.

Thank Christ for that.

ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#3126550 12-Sep-2023 14:26

Well PREFU is a bit of a joke this time around. Its not all that bad looking forward seems to be the glib acceptance.

But no one is asking how Treasury managed to get its short term forecasts so wrong but happy to accept it can predict 12 months or more ahead.

In Dec 22 (just 6 short months ago), Treasury were predicting Core tax revenue of $118bn and a deficit of $3.6bn for the 12m to June 23.

By Apr 22 (3 months later) it was $115bn of tax revenue ($3bn lower) and a deficit of $6.9bn (that was the Budget forecast for this year).

By the end of June 23 the unaudited accounts show a core tax revenue of $112bn (again $3bn lower and 5% lower than forecast 6mth earlier). And the deficit is $10bn - yes you read that right be just printed a deficit for the last financial year of $10bn. A $6bn shortfall in revenue plus already living $4bn beyond our means.

All of these revenue misses have dropped straight to the bottom line - and all driven by lower corporate and net other persons tax (ie provisional and terminal tax).

Treasury forecasts for 2024 and beyond look like a junior analysts copy and paste. If you were 2 months into this financial year for your business are you expecting to grow your bottom line in the face of your revenue and cost forecasts? Personally we're currently 15% behind on last years numbers and I struggle to see how the full year manages to show growth.

Every 1% variation in the countries GDP compared to forecast is +/- $7bn in tax revenue. We currently have a $11bn forecast deficit for FY24. If lower dairy pricing shaves $5bn of our GDP for the year thats 2% lower than forecast and..... you do the maths.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

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