NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3147343 13-Oct-2023 23:59

Handle9:

A scrutineer witnesses the process. That’s the total involvement

While true, QAnon linked scrutineers in the US 2020 election wreaked havoc with their claims that votes were altered or discarded when they weren't for Trump. There is certainly a danger there.

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#3147348 14-Oct-2023 06:39

This thread is locked until voting booths are closed today.

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#3147553 14-Oct-2023 19:00

This is now unlocked again.

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tdgeek

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#3147555 14-Oct-2023 19:23

Tea is on, snacks available. Tonight movie.

My pick is Nats and Labour bloc will be very close. But NZ First will decide the government which will be National/ACT/NZ First.

alexx

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#3147556 14-Oct-2023 19:41

Right now National+ACT have just a fraction over 50% of the vote with about 16% counted (mostly advanced votes so far). I'm not expecting this to hold and Winston Peters will be grinning by the end of the evening.

https://electionresults.govt.nz/

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#3147559 14-Oct-2023 20:00

alexx:

Right now National+ACT have just a fraction over 50% of the vote with about 16% counted (mostly advanced votes so far). I'm not expecting this to hold and Winston Peters will be grinning by the end of the evening.

https://electionresults.govt.nz/

I posted months ago that national will cream this. Polls show otherwise. Slightly odd that. But Peters will be the Kingmaker. Unless polls were wildly off

ezbee

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#3147563 14-Oct-2023 20:13

NZF can call it a win either way.
NZF was pretty dead 2.6% and out of Parliment, they were looking to dissapear.
In Parliment you get funding, In Government you get more funding, and more newsworthy during the term.
It seems comfortably over the 5%, and with potential of icing on the cake.

Where is the Gunn party though?

HelloThere

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#3147566 14-Oct-2023 21:03

ezbee: Where is the Gunn party though?

Currently sitting at 0.76% with 9773 out of 1272058 votes. Will be interesting on how many seats the Government has once all voting has been counted and the Port Waikato by election held.

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#3147569 14-Oct-2023 21:28

HelloThere:
ezbee: Where is the Gunn party though?

Currently sitting at 0.76% with 9773 out of 1272058 votes. Will be interesting on how many seats the Government has once all voting has been counted and the Port Waikato by election held.

And the Te Pati Maori overhang.

So much for the polls. NZ First is nowhere.

Seems that the 70% barrier of the major parties is over, minor parties gaining.Having said that there is a trend to vote for the non National MP that you want (if that was your presence) but to give National the party vote. NZF party voter is still 6.1% so a clear time for a change.

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#3147572 14-Oct-2023 21:40

tdgeek:

I posted months ago that national will cream this. Polls show otherwise. Slightly odd that. But Peters will be the Kingmaker. Unless polls were wildly off

I predicted before the 2020 election that the winner then would lose in 2023. Regardless of who it was. Because this term was always going to be economic carnage as we sorted through the effects of the COVID shocks. The New Zealand government could not do anything about those things, so we were always going to feel a lot of pain. Despite the fact that they can't control it, they're in charge, and they take the blame. As it happens, Labour won, but National would not have performed any better.

Conversely in this term the global economy should start to get back to normal and things will improve. This also won't be the NZ government's doing, but NAct will be in charge so they will get the credit.

But on the other hand, so many of their policies - especially if Seymour gets his way - are going to be disastrous for so many people that I'm not completely sure it can overcome the general effect of the rising tide. If you're not already in the top 1% you're going to have a bad time under this next government. And if Seymour gets his way on a referendum on Te Tiriti we will come as close to civil war as we've been in 150 years.

On a related note, in the land of my birth the No vote is the clear winner with Queensland (of course) leading the charge with at last count 78% No. *smh*

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#3147574 14-Oct-2023 21:43

HelloThere:
ezbee: Where is the Gunn party though?

Currently sitting at 0.76% with 9773 out of 1272058 votes. Will be interesting on how many seats the Government has once all voting has been counted and the Port Waikato by election held.

So, still waiting for their miracle then?

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ezbee

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#3147576 14-Oct-2023 21:58

A lot of new faces will enter parliament so should be pretty interesting 3 years as they get into swing of things.
Still think that 4 year terms make more sense.
ACT may also be underpressure to deliver, not just prop up National, for groups that its embraced.

Gunn may be glad that she may be able to benefit from ACTs bold policies on restructure of Mental Health services. :-)

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#3147577 14-Oct-2023 22:06

SaltyNZ:

I predicted before the 2020 election that the winner then would lose in 2023. Regardless of who it was. Because this term was always going to be economic carnage as we sorted through the effects of the COVID shocks. The New Zealand government could not do anything about those things, so we were always going to feel a lot of pain. Despite the fact that they can't control it, they're in charge, and they take the blame. As it happens, Labour won, but National would not have performed any better.

Conversely in this term the global economy should start to get back to normal and things will improve. This also won't be the NZ government's doing, but NAct will be in charge so they will get the credit.

I don't think we've seen the worst of the economic impacts of Covid yet. There's a lot of long term pain to come. I don't think the Covid "aftershocks" as you conclude did the damage as far as Labour's election chances went.

I think the failure to deliver on so many fronts and the bull**** and spin that we were fed is more their problem.

Sure when the global economy does improve we (New Zealand) will benefit and the government of the day will unfairly take the credit but I think we have away to fall before that happens. There's also a lot of self inflicted (internal) pain yet to be realised from the handling of the economy over the past 5 or so years.

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#3147578 14-Oct-2023 22:07

I'm surprised that so many people were stupid enough to vote for Gunn with all of 2 MP's. Currently on 1% (so much for the "1 to 2 million votes" she was expecting) - but conversely Tamaki and his Freedoms umbrella bs outfit has only got 25% of her vote. I bet he's absolutely spitting tacks right now - and I bet he'll be giving a grumpy sermon at church tomorrow too 😃

Pleased to see most of the freedom/fringe parties aren't going to get anywhere near Parliament - for now, at least.

My pick - National + ACT going to win. Winston won't be needed, thank God.

Disappointed to see my local Labour MP is most likely going to lose his seat - I see him around the place doing a lot for the community, whereas the National guy before him was basically invisible until it was election time, and suddenly he was everywhere in 2020, knocking on doors to win votes after doing (essentially, IMO) nothing.

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#3147581 14-Oct-2023 22:21

It’s looking most likely the three headed monster. National Act will lose 1-2 seats after specials like always and will end up on around 59-60 seats.

Get the popcorn out, the Winston show is back.

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