Israel and Middle East 2023

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#3244030 3-Jun-2024 08:54

I read somewhere a while ago, probably on the BBC, that some female Israeli soldiers stationed on the Gaza border warned that something was going to happen and their male superiors ignored them.

The female soldiers were killed in the attack on Oct 7th.

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#3244074 3-Jun-2024 13:54

SJB:

I read somewhere a while ago, probably on the BBC, that some female Israeli soldiers stationed on the Gaza border warned that something was going to happen and their male superiors ignored them.

The female soldiers were killed in the attack on Oct 7th.

i think this was "allowed" by netanyahu to save his political career and spare him from jail but i have no proof, and there may be other reasons for this 'intelligence failure'

the point was, they knew this was going to happen, every other ally country told them, and they pulled away from the border

truth is stranger than fiction

gzt

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#3244075 3-Jun-2024 14:09

Yair Golan a decorated war hero and hero of October 7th wins the Labour party leadership with 95% support:

Times of Israel: In an address following his victory, Golan said that “we have to unite everyone, Labor, Meretz, the protest organizations, those disappointed by other parties.” Golan, 61, now a general in the reserves, was passed over for the position of IDF chief of staff in 2018, after a 2016 speech in which he likened contemporary trends in Israel to the “disturbing processes” that took place in Europe in the run-up to the Holocaust.

Golan's predecessor in the Labour leadership had refused electoral coalitions with like-minded parties a large factor in the ongoing failure to defeat Netanyahu's coalition. Golan was congratulated by the leader of Yesh Atid a large part of the center opposition to Netanyahu. Like other center parties Golan continues to be stubbornly against any draft exception for Haredi religious.

ezbee

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#3244077 3-Jun-2024 14:47

There is no need for great conspiracies, normal human failings can do the job.

Hamas are not dumb even if they are evil, probably playing Netanyahu and alike.
Netanyahu etc also wanted to be played in a way.
They 'wanted to see' a somewhat contained Hamas, negotiating more work permits in Israel etc.
Major peace conference coming up with Arab leaders and such.
Far right looking more towards the Holy Land of west bank and settlers.

If you 'want to see' preparations as as posturing to keep the radical arm happy,
maybe that's what you see.

I'm sure like Trump, Netanyahu saw himself as so smart, not listening to any contrary info.

The rich people who 'could' access to best engineering advice go down in dodgy carbon fiber submarine after all.

There is a report that they did not even want to wake up the big guy Netanyahu that morning.
https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/analysis-why-israel-was-caught-off-guard-by-hamas-on-october-7/

Netanyahu got a coalition to keep him in power on thinnest of margins.
I gather a couple of opposing parties not making it over the 3.5% threshold kinda sealed it.
Its probably a lesson for voters there.

Seems he won't survive another election if he does not go sooner.
Like a Trump, or Orban has a lot of trouble pursuing him if he is not in power.

gzt

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#3244083 3-Jun-2024 15:17

ezbee: Crux of problem, there is no 'Nelson Mandella' in Hamas with power to negotiate peace agreement that will be kept.

Marwan Barghouti is the obvious. He has support of Fatah, the respect of Hamas and many other factions, and is widely respected by Palestinian youth:

Guardian: Virtually every opinion poll since his imprisonment two decades ago shows Barghouti to be the favourite presidential candidate for the Palestinian people, were they able to hold free elections. A December survey showed him 40 points ahead of the deeply unpopular current leader Mahmoud Abbas but also beating Hamas candidates, including the Islamist militant group’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh.

Just one problem. He's in jail. 20 years so far. Barghouti is near the top of the list of prisoners Hamas want free. Apparently Hamas don't like him much at all because of his less religious orientation but they're forced to have him on the free list because he is widely popular. There are recent reports Barghouti is subject to additional isolation and pressures in jail.

gzt

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#3244085 3-Jun-2024 15:48

Nelson Mandela was the commander of ANC's military wing and remained on terror watchlists for this reason even after he was elected president in 1994. There are definitely many parallels with Marwan Barghouti.

SJB

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#3244219 4-Jun-2024 08:53

Netanyahu won't release Barghouti if he is popular enough to unite the West Bank and Gaza politically.

He's spent the last twenty years making sure they stay apart.

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gzt

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#3245849 8-Jun-2024 01:04

Medhi Hasan interviews an obviously upset Jewish-American Major who quit the American Defence Intelligence Agency after a 13 year career in the military:

SJB

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#3245883 8-Jun-2024 09:06

Biden: PM heeded warning against major Rafah offensive, scaling down IDF ops there | The Times of Israel

Biden lives in some political parallel world. If operations in Rafah are being scaled back it's because they have forced everyone out to some desolate refugee camp somewhere and flattened the place so it's no longer habitable.

All along Netanyahu has made Biden look like the geriatric fool that he is.

SJB

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#3245885 8-Jun-2024 09:12

Gantz expected to leave coalition Saturday night, though he's under pressure to stay | The Times of Israel

Let's hope his party is not the last.

alexx

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#3247022 10-Jun-2024 16:39

There are reports that there have been four resignations from the war cabinet:

Benny Gantz resigned.
Gadi Eisenkot resigned.
Avi Rosenfeld resigned.
Hili tropper resigned.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/09/israel-politics-gantz-netanyahu-gallant/

I'm not sure how many are left with Netanyahu and whether that brings a peace deal closer than it was. In early May, Hamas accepted a very similar peace deal to the one that is being offered now.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-says-it-accepts-ceasefire-proposal-egypt-qatar-2024-05-06/

#include <standard.disclaimer>

SJB

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#3247032 10-Jun-2024 17:11

Gantz was the only one above in the war cabinet. It leaves Netanyahu and Gallant. The nut job Ben Gvir is pressing Netanyahu to appoint him in Gantz's place. Not likely.

All four you mentioned above have resigned from the normal cabinet as the party that Ganz leads has resigned from Netanyahu's coalition government.

gzt

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#3247067 10-Jun-2024 18:27

Netanyahu last week reportedly offered the Defence Ministry to a center-right party who told him to go [away] and hold an election instead:

Times Of Israel: Liberman asserted that he would not accept such an offer, stating unequivocally that the country needs elections at this time. “It isn’t possible to fix it anymore,” the MK said. Liberman said, “As long as Netanyahu is at the top of the pyramid, there is no chance to restore things. The government isn’t dealing with anything — neither the economy nor security — and is only concerned with political survival.”

In other words the war(s) will continue as long as Netanyahu needs to stay in the top seat and the rest is of very little importance.

gzt

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#3247072 10-Jun-2024 18:43

Yoav Gallant expected to vote against Netanyahu's revival of Haredi conscription bill:

Times of Israel: Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is expected to vote against contentious legislation that would lower the age of exemption from mandatory service for male Haredi Torah students from the current 26 to 21 while “very slowly” increasing the rate of ultra-Orthodox enlistment.

The legislation was originally proposed two years ago by Gantz who is not in favour of trying to advance it in the current circumstances at the cost of further fracturing national unity and will almost certainly vote against the bill for that reason.

SJB

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#3252060 23-Jun-2024 11:19

Israeli army strapped wounded Palestinian to jeep - BBC News

According to the IDF it's against protocol to strap injured Palestinians to the front of jeeps. Presumably it's OK to strap them to the back.

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