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JimmyH: And the huge amount of cheap gas being found around the world through fracking, which is sending gas and coal prices for power generation through the floor, and making new thermal generating plant very feasible.
ajw:JimmyH: And the huge amount of cheap gas being found around the world through fracking, which is sending gas and coal prices for power generation through the floor, and making new thermal generating plant very feasible.
But no doubt the electricity retailers will come up with more unbelievable BS to maintain higher prices. Worse than listening to politicians.
k14:
Lol, wow that is so wrong. If Tiwai shuts down then every power company in NZ will suffer. Research how the spot market works and you will know why. The wholesale market prices will hit the floor. All thermal plant will be run at a loss, if not just shut down collecting dust (MRP has one in Auckland) and the hydro/geothermal will return a lot lower revenue. That is fine if you are immune from the wholesale market (if you have the same amount of customers as generation) but no one has a perfect 1:1 match. Out of the big 4 Meridian will probably suffer the most but Genesis, Contact and Mighty River will all be in the crap too.
Also, go look at the last 3 years demand. It has actually decreased slightly. Yes recession, chch earthquake has contributed but that is not the whole story. The latest theory is that currently electricity prices in NZ are hovering around the threshold of being classed as a luxury. People are trying to cut back and shorter showers, energy efficient lightbulbs etc are easy ways to cut the $$. There are plenty of other ways to reduce demand too, adding in some PV or solar hot water all combines to a fair amount of uncertainty in the next 5-10 years.
turnin:jonherries:
However as I also say this discussion is not what the thread is for, so thanks for your comments, but please no more on this.
Jon
OP : I agree with what you are saying but you started a topic, Do you just want straight Yes/No answers yet no comments as to why ? The reasoning behind a vote is often more valuable than statistical analysis. You gave a clear example as to why above
Byrned:
I understand how the spot market works. Much like any any exchange. But thanks for the concern.
From what I understand (and I'm happy to be proven wrong) that their would have to be significant upgrades made by Transpower to handle any significant amounts of power coming from Manapouri. The recent upgrade to the HVDC link is fine, but you've got to get it there. Transpower don't do these upgrades for free. Someone has to pay. This was all discussed in the media, not that that is always correct!
Do you have links to the trends in demand that you discuss? From what I have seen demand slowed only slightly in 2012, but 2008-2012 did see growth. Demand in Australia continued to grow strongly. Website I like for comparing data from around the world is http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=81&c=nz&l=en Oh, and anyone who thinks China is slowing down, have a look at their energy usage!
And yes, while their are ways to reduce usage with more efficient products, with a growing population, and new products, usage will grow. Heat pumps will become more and more prevalent, and with that, overall usage will grow (won't just be used for heating). Plug in hybrids will most likely become the next "it" thing in green motoring (not that I agree it is the right direction but this is a beta vs VHS argument). But the main driver for growth will be population.
Oh and get real over people suddenly taking shorter showers affecting usage. That crap only happens during downturns.
jonherries: This one might be more telling (utilisation per capita):
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=81000&c=nz&l=en
Byrned:I understand how the spot market works. Much like any any exchange. But thanks for the concern.
From what I understand (and I'm happy to be proven wrong) that their would have to be significant upgrades made by Transpower to handle any significant amounts of power coming from Manapouri. The recent upgrade to the HVDC link is fine, but you've got to get it there. Transpower don't do these upgrades for free. Someone has to pay. This was all discussed in the media, not that that is always correct!
Do you have links to the trends in demand that you discuss? From what I have seen demand slowed only slightly in 2012, but 2008-2012 did see growth. Demand in Australia continued to grow strongly. Website I like for comparing data from around the world is http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=81&c=nz&l=en Oh, and anyone who thinks China is slowing down, have a look at their energy usage!
And yes, while their are ways to reduce usage with more efficient products, with a growing population, and new products, usage will grow. Heat pumps will become more and more prevalent, and with that, overall usage will grow (won't just be used for heating). Plug in hybrids will most likely become the next "it" thing in green motoring (not that I agree it is the right direction but this is a beta vs VHS argument). But the main driver for growth will be population.
Oh and get real over people suddenly taking shorter showers affecting usage. That crap only happens during downturns.
k14:
Personally me and my wife will be buying shares. My reasoning is that anyone that doesn't buy is missing out on the money that has gone to build up the infrastructure over the last 50-60 years which currently is effectively evenly distributed by the government. Personally I am opposed to the sale but more from the ideological standpoint of longing for the NZ electricity system to go back to being solely run by the government. Every day I see how inefficient the system is in its current state. From the "New Zealand Inc" standpoint the whole system is run so terribly inefficiently that it is just depressing.
richms: Im not going to, I could easily get the cash together to get some in time, but I fear a change of govt ruining the value of it basically out of spite, and the problems that telecom saw with govt meddling in their ownership rights with LLU, if power gets much more expensive they may regulate that they have to sell it cheaper to certain sectors of the population etc. Not a sound investment with all those possible problems.
Sky tv on the other hand looks like a safe bet at least in the short term.
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