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29265 posts

Uber Geek

Biddle Corp
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  #2467647 22-Apr-2020 10:33
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I know a few people who have made big money in recent weeks with one friend making $15k with some gambles and trades - Synlait was up close to 50% at one point, Air NZ hit 100% gains, Restaurant Brands was up nearly 100%, Ryman was also up nearly 100%

1050 posts

Uber Geek

  #2467667 22-Apr-2020 11:03
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I know a few people who have made big money in recent weeks with one friend making $15k with some gambles and trades - Synlait was up close to 50% at one point, Air NZ hit 100% gains, Restaurant Brands was up nearly 100%, Ryman was also up nearly 100%



why did they sell, in order to realise the gains?



931 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2467728 22-Apr-2020 11:57
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NZ share prices have bounced because of the financial support government is giving and because lockdown seems to be working.

However this is likely to be short term, as the global impact of the pandemic hits. Unemployment will stay high with many companies going bust, imports (esp. tourism) will be hugely affected, and there is increased government debt.

Predictions are recovery will be very slow - some predict a global double recession. During that recovery there will almost certainly be many short term highs and lows, so there will probably be more opportunity for bargains in the next few months (or years).

Note that buying for quick capital gains is high-risk - nobody knows which way share prices will go. You may make a lot but equally lose a lot.


6050 posts

Uber Geek

  #2467782 22-Apr-2020 13:25
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I'm holding almost everything and buying more.  I have some simple criteria for what I will buy in the present circumstances.  I won't share those as I don't want to be responsible for anyone copying me.  Suffice to say it's money I can afford to lose.


I'm still working fulltime as is my partner.  We are spending much less money than I usually do (coffees, takeways etc).  So I'm investing most of that extra money.  Also saving for a few things I want, like a new under-deck fuel tank for my boat.






866 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2468178 23-Apr-2020 07:35
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I've lost $100k but I've still got almost 20 years to retirement so I'm not too bothered - keep chucking money in, keep it in growth and wait for the bounce.....



This stuff's addictive, it's definitely a form of gambling - though maybe a more socially acceptable one.


Back in '08 my wife and I - expats - decided to sell our business and move back to NZ for 10 years – partly an effort to see if a zero-carbon lifestyle was achievable, partly to reduce our stress levels - but mainly as a lifestyle choice for our young kids.


While dealing with the tax implications and deciding what to do with our super funds etc, I fell out with our financial advisor – a friend of my wife's family – over his, what seemed, excessive fees, cashed all mine out and into a self-directed online trading fund.


I quickly realised how much I didn't know, and - luckily - started out timidly. As a result entered the 08-09 crash and recession with a load of investable cash - absolutely a fluke of course, but one I accepted credit for..


Then there was the amazing decade of 'a rising tide that floating all ships..and we still had internet - first satellite, then RBI - so now I could get up early hours, trade in the North American markets and go off to work.. everything increased.. took credit for that too.. started managing some more of the families funds. That was fun..:)


But managing a more 'serious' amount began to increase my paranoia.. the potential of a catastrophic downturn seemed to be everywhere, my wife started complaining all my spare time was spent on 'research, analysis' and trading'.. I took my laptop on our last two phone-free holidays..:(


So Mid-February - thanks partly to Geekzone - I realised this really was the 'black swan' I'd been waiting for.. started selling everything. As I mentioned at the time in the corona thread, it was enough to attract the bank's attention and unsolicited advice.


Now I'm sitting on tons of cash and everything I see tells me these bubbling valuations must be unsustainable.. like those cartoon characters that run off a cliff, suspended midair because they don't realise it yet.


Of course as David Lange rightly pointed out, it all actually behaves more like a school of  'demented reef fish' governed by Cartoon Physics than based on financial realities.. so now I'm breaking that primary rule and trying to Time the Market..


Thinking at this stage I should actually hand most of it over to the bank's "wealth specialists" and not have the stress. Spend time with the family.
I see now how those guys earn their fees.


Then again I've got about 15 years until I'll actually need to access it.. maybe I'll just keep messing with it for now..

903 posts

Ultimate Geek

  #2468758 23-Apr-2020 16:26
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Most of my investments are in shares which I have chosen to buy and hold for the very long term.


Shares that I bought four years ago are currently 80% up on the purchase price.


Those that I bought two years ago are about 40% up on the purchase price.


Shares that I bought earlier this year are down about 8% on the purchase price.


Add in dividend income and they all look rather better than that.


I invest in shares through a zero fees broker that runs a dividend reinvestment program that will purchase fractional shares with my dividends.



BDFL - Memuneh
68803 posts

Uber Geek

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  #2472314 27-Apr-2020 18:44
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lol - as a way to divert $5 GZ way i opened a sharsies acct yesterday and put $100 in it for "fun".



Thank you! For those of you thinking of joining Sharesies, here's a reminder for my ref code (as mentioned I get $5).


I have actually put more money into funds managed by Sharesies, plus actually increased my Kiwisaver contribution. As mentioned above - if someone is selling, someone is buying.


The thing is if you sell now you will lock the losses - the numbers you see aren't really win/loss until you sell your hand.



These links are referral codes


Geekzone broadband switch | Eletricity comparison and switch | Hatch investment (NZ$ 10 bonus if NZ$100 deposited within 30 days) | Sharesies | Mighty Ape | Backblaze | Coinbase | TheMarket | My technology disclosure

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