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  Reply # 318963 15-Apr-2010 17:17
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eXDee:
wreck90: Really, does telecom have much future?

The national fibre network will downgrade the value of telecoms primary asset (local loop).

The final nail in telecoms coffin will be their serious lack of business aptitude. Check , Ferrit, CDMA cellular, AAPT, stupid customer speeches, XT. Probably Tivo will be added to the list soon.

Telecom executives seem to have the anti-Midas touch.

The only thing keeping telecom in business, is their monopoly on the local loop. Once the national fibre network is running, that monopoly is gone too.

I dont see how you can have such a doomed prediction of telecoms future. They are one of NZ's biggest companies and they aren't going to go anywhere. They wiill change their services as fibre becomes an option.

Yes they have their downfalls (rather often it would seem), but asking if they have a future i think is being unrealistic.


I think it's a distinct possiblity, the rule against vertically intergrated companies like Telecom being able to tender for regional fibre co's are going to results in a much more competitive landscape... perhaps they will sell off Chorus?

Anyway I suggest a read of this blog post, in your head replace the word Telstra with Telecom NZ.
http://johnl.blogs.exetel.com.au/index.php?/archives/2010/04/11.html

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  Reply # 318969 15-Apr-2010 17:27
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End of Telecom = End of NZX (not NZ economy, we still have sheep)

Tough times for Telecom ahead? yes. Will Telecom get smaller and less of a monopoly? Yes, the gov will make sure of that. End of Telecom? No. I am not a customer of theirs but i for one do not wish their demise.

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  Reply # 318970 15-Apr-2010 17:28
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http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10638635

I think this might have been the real announcement...

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  Reply # 319000 15-Apr-2010 19:04
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Ragnor:
sbiddle:

Goodbye Telecom. Googbye New Zealand economy.

People just don't realise the implications of what they're wishing when they want NZ's 2nd largest listed company to die.



I don't see it.

Sure Telecom PSTN and ADSL revenue will eventually go into freefall, it's probably not growing much anymore already.

They still have mobile broadband/services and a bunch of other stuff they are into.  

Besides if they do cut staff and investment I'm pretty sure the companies that won NGN tenders for various regions will be hiring staff and investing $$.






I think you have NGN and fiber roll out mixed up.  Alcatel won the NGN contract 10 years ago and nothing has happened.  Hope Telecom gets some of the fiber work though..




Regards,

Old3eyes


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  Reply # 319002 15-Apr-2010 19:07
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timestyles:
munchkin:
timestyles:

As one of the death wishers, I don't expect it to happen, but it would be nice anyway.  I'd say that most of us feel this way, because of Telecoms anticompetitive behaviour in the past (actually, they're still doing it, aren't they?).  Sort of like when Microsoft charged manufacturers for a copy of Windows per CPU even if not every computer had a copy.



So, by implication, you want the NZ economy to tank itself?



Pretty much, yes. 


What do you do for a job them.  Bum around on the dole??




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  Reply # 319009 15-Apr-2010 19:21
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timestyles:
munchkin:
timestyles:

As one of the death wishers, I don't expect it to happen, but it would be nice anyway.  I'd say that most of us feel this way, because of Telecoms anticompetitive behaviour in the past (actually, they're still doing it, aren't they?).  Sort of like when Microsoft charged manufacturers for a copy of Windows per CPU even if not every computer had a copy.



So, by implication, you want the NZ economy to tank itself?


Pretty much, yes. 


Don't expect any super when you retire then. NZ super fund has around $130 million invested in Telecom.

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  Reply # 319012 15-Apr-2010 19:24
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Just went to check my bill online.. Is it just me or is the telecom website down?

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  Reply # 319020 15-Apr-2010 19:35
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sbiddle:
timestyles:
munchkin:
timestyles:

As one of the death wishers, I don't expect it to happen, but it would be nice anyway.  I'd say that most of us feel this way, because of Telecoms anticompetitive behaviour in the past (actually, they're still doing it, aren't they?).  Sort of like when Microsoft charged manufacturers for a copy of Windows per CPU even if not every computer had a copy.



So, by implication, you want the NZ economy to tank itself?


Pretty much, yes. 


Don't expect any super when you retire then. NZ super fund has around $130 million invested in Telecom.


$130 million divided by say 1 million retirees in the next 20 years = $130 each.  That's not much.

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  Reply # 319028 15-Apr-2010 20:00
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garvani: Just went to check my bill online.. Is it just me or is the telecom website down?

The website is down for me and others on gpforums as well.

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  Reply # 319042 15-Apr-2010 20:31
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Just wondering, if the Telecom Share price goes down further....could it become a take-over target?

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  Reply # 319136 16-Apr-2010 00:06
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Kiwipixter: End of Telecom = End of NZX (not NZ economy, we still have sheep)


not so many sheep anymore.. lot of sheep were given the axe to make way for more kiwifruit, grapes and dairy cows..




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  Reply # 319138 16-Apr-2010 00:10
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DjShadow: Just wondering, if the Telecom Share price goes down further....could it become a take-over target?


i think there is a restriction on the amount of foreign ownership allowed in telecom - couldnt be more that 49% or something.  That also means that at least 49% of telecoms earnings are going directly back to NZ.... not like vodafone where the earnings race out of the country and off to their foreign owners faster than you can say prepay.




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  Reply # 319149 16-Apr-2010 00:41
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old3eyes:

I think you have NGN and fiber roll out mixed up.  Alcatel won the NGN contract 10 years ago and nothing has happened.  Hope Telecom gets some of the fiber work though..



NGN (Next Generation Network) is a generic term used around the world by lots of different governments and companies, currently the "next" part means fibre roll outs for most countries.

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  Reply # 319164 16-Apr-2010 01:49
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DjShadow: Just wondering, if the Telecom Share price goes down further....could it become a take-over target?


Not while they are being molested by the commerce commission in the way that they are.




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  Reply # 319222 16-Apr-2010 09:33
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Regs:
DjShadow: Just wondering, if the Telecom Share price goes down further....could it become a take-over target?


i think there is a restriction on the amount of foreign ownership allowed in telecom - couldnt be more that 49% or something.  That also means that at least 49% of telecoms earnings are going directly back to NZ.... not like vodafone where the earnings race out of the country and off to their foreign owners faster than you can say prepay.


Not quite, the rule is:

No single foreign investor may hold more than 49.9 percent of the total voting share in Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Ltd without the approval of the New Zealand Government;

Although I've yet to see an actual value, I had thought most of Telecom is foreign-owned.  The Telecom Annual report states:

Under the Overseas Investment Regulations, Telecom is deemed to be an overseas person because of its foreign shareholders.

Also, of the 20 biggest shareholders, only 3 appear to be NZ companies.  I'd be interested to see what the actual figure is, but I highly doubt Telecom is a NZ-owned company.


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