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Topic # 9177 27-Aug-2006 07:22
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May be of Intererst re this article in NZ Herald


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=5&objectid=10398140




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  Reply # 44762 27-Aug-2006 08:03
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A nice fluffy read for a Sunday morning.  Not a mention of Econet in there and confirmation of the rollout of Vodafone Mobile Broadand (HSDPA) network next month.

This statement is pretty bullish spoken like dominate player  

"The truth of the market over the next three years is there will only be three major players - Telecom, Vodafone and Telstra - and the rest will have offerings that have some value in some niche markets."




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  Reply # 44764 27-Aug-2006 08:46
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The article certainly shows his lack of knowledge of the whole telecommunications industry in NZ.

"Still, despite the late regulatory card, Stanners is bemused by Telstra's reluctance to invest in fixed lines. Auckland is where we should have the most competitive infrastructure and we have the least and, where you think it would have the most build-out, it didn't happen, he said."


Hmm... TelstraSaturn had the money and plans to roll out theirc HFC network in Auckland but those plans were stopped in part after The NZ Herald mounted a PR campaign against the network!

The statement also asks the question as to why a company like TelstraClear should really be investing in fixed lines when he's just told us the future is mobile and that he's going to put everybody else out of business and be the main player in NZ!

I also wonder why he keeps referring to TelstraClear as Telstra? TelstraClear is a wholly owned subsidary, it is not Telstra. Ohh I forgot. 

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Reply # 44766 27-Aug-2006 08:51
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Tim Miles is coming back to New Zealand - but leaving the Vodafone Group after being VFNZ GM, VF UK GM, VF PLC CTO. I wonder what's he gonna do now?





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  Reply # 44773 27-Aug-2006 10:57
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Lipex666: This statement is pretty bullish spoken like dominate player  

"The truth of the market over the next three years is there will only be three major players - Telecom, Vodafone and Telstra - and the rest will have offerings that have some value in some niche markets."


I also found this comment particularly interesting, and I think he's right. Players like Orcon and Callplus who will be taking advantage of LLU will all be selling essentially the same product and because they will be operating with cut-throat margins, their pricing will also be much the same. Some of them will survive by managing to slightly differentiate their product in order to secure those niche markets, but none of them will have any significant influence in the wider market.

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Reply # 44793 27-Aug-2006 20:20
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It will be interesting to see what mobile broadband packages Vodafone will have on offer. Now, as I have once said before, after the LLU announcement earlier this year, I believe it would be great to see Telecom put more focus on mobile broadband, and this will only accelerate the urgency to do so, if Vodafone is to act, which I have no doubt they will. PSTN solutions are on the decline, and EVDO seems very well placed, along with WiMax and HSDPA to deliver a wireless solution.

On a side note, with relation to Telstra Clear becoming a major mobile player in the New Zealand market, I would say this is going to affect Vodafone more than Telecom, due to ease of switching mobile companies while retaining your current handset, of course this will depend on the deals on offer when number portability comes into play.

In regard to Vodafone’s goal of overtaking Telecom as New Zealand’s leading Telecommunications company, I think they need to first focus on gaining more mobile customers, which at this point Telecom seems to have the upper hand when comparing net 021 connections to 027 CDMA connections (I say this due to the 025 TDMA network being closed down, and the writing off of un used handsets).

Good luck to them anyway, and always "keep your enemies close, but your friends closer"

nzbnw








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Reply # 44800 27-Aug-2006 21:14
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nzbnw: It will be interesting to see what mobile broadband packages Vodafone will have on offer. Now, as I have once said before, after the LLU announcement earlier this year, I believe it would be great to see Telecom put more focus on mobile broadband, and this will only accelerate the urgency to do so, if Vodafone is to act, which I have no doubt they will. PSTN solutions are on the decline, and EVDO seems very well placed, along with WiMax and HSDPA to deliver a wireless solution.


It'll be interesting to see how Telecom moves forward, because they have been reluctant in the past to offer mobile data deals which would risk cannabalising their fixed broadband revenue. It seems that now they may have to get away from that mindset.

In regard to Vodafone’s goal of overtaking Telecom as New Zealand’s leading Telecommunications company, I think they need to first focus on gaining more mobile customers, which at this point Telecom seems to have the upper hand when comparing net 021 connections to 027 CDMA connections (I say this due to the 025 TDMA network being closed down, and the writing off of un used handsets).


The problem that I have with the market share figures is that I see 027's market share as being artificially propped up by the $10 Text promotion. Because customers who are attracted to this deal are probably generally low ARPU customers, I'm not entirely convinced that it's sustainable.

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  Reply # 44802 27-Aug-2006 21:39
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alasta: The problem that I have with the market share figures is that I see 027's market share as being artificially propped up by the $10 Text promotion. Because customers who are attracted to this deal are probably generally low ARPU customers, I'm not entirely convinced that it's sustainable.


It would be interesting to know what % of Telecom's customer are prepay users who only spend $10 per month - I know at least 4 who are only given $20 vouchers by their parents every 2 months and that's all they use.

I don't believe there is actually a great need for Telecom to be offering $10 TXT in the marketplace at present. Vodafone's offerings in the marketplace are so confusing it's debateable as to whether they actually want customers - on one hand they're tieing you in to minimum 12 month contracts just to sign up on a plan and then undermining the whole thing by still offering prepay users deals such as $2 Take 10 that offers the cheapest peak time calling rates available on any network in NZ and continual 50% top up deals that reduce this even further.

Welcome to the great mobile natural monopoly in NZ.





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Reply # 44824 27-Aug-2006 22:49
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This is my theory, in terms of revenue from the end prepaid user. Sorry alasta but I think Telecom might have it right. Savvy prepaid users will have both a Telecom and Vodafone handset. In this case, they would use the Telecom phone during the weekdays, and Telecom would gain $10 revenue, which is better than Vodafone at present who will gain $0 if the user only txt's during the weekends.

Yes we all know both networks have a lot of prepaid customers, but I the case of Telecom postpaid options such as go one bill are growing in popularity, as for a lot of people they provide a better option than prepaid. However a lot of Telecom customers I come across who are high users of voice calls, also define $10txt as good value, though they might send about 100-150 txt's a month, and a common question that is asked when someone makes the move from prepaid to postpaid, is does this plan have $10 txt. I guess what I am trying to say is, it is a very attractive offer to prepaid phone users, but in now way is it affecting growth of postpaid plans, which should be set to grow with the introduction of Telecom Flexi, in much the same way as when Vodafone introduced 'You Choose', although an open term option is required on both counts.
  

But your are right, $10txt attracts and retains prepaid users, but also postpaid users.









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