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120 posts

Master Geek
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# 105557 6-Jul-2012 20:09
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Mechanical storage density seems to have plateaued, at least for the time being. SSD price per GB is falling. Many of us have large media libraries, but have we reached a storage equilibrium? Will we ever need local storage capacities of orders of magnitude larger than what we have now, or will the inter-connectivity of home networks and so-called "cloud" storage render large mechanical arrays irrelevant in the home?

Personally I have around 6 TB of local storage; a modest amount, but my primary concern is not how to expand it, but how to back it up.

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Ultimate Geek
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  # 652089 6-Jul-2012 20:17
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Crikey. About 200gb constitutes my life!



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Master Geek
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  # 652092 6-Jul-2012 20:20
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That sounds like a vote for the ayes!

 
 
 
 


gzt

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Uber Geek
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  # 652099 6-Jul-2012 20:43
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Equilibrium in what sense exactly?



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Master Geek
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  # 652106 6-Jul-2012 20:56
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In the sense that the average layman's personal computing storage requirements won't increase beyond an order of magnitude more than the current status quo.

Say the average PC user has 250-1000 GB of personal storage spread among their computing devices. Smart phone, laptop, desktop, tablet, and online storage. Is that likely to increase by need? If so, by how much?

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Uber Geek
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  # 652115 6-Jul-2012 21:40
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Digmarx: .......Personally I have around 6 TB of local storage; a modest amount, but my primary concern is not how to expand it, but how to back it up.

Look to the sky.....

How many years ago were you happy with 500GB, 1 or 2TB? (which is enough for a lot of us)
How long have we had 'cloud' options?

I think the clouds where we'll end up... but choosing what we'll leave there will be the individual challenge

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Uber Geek
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  # 652117 6-Jul-2012 21:51
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10TB NAS and counting - all RAID with redundancy. The only issue I foresee is the SATA interface crumbling beyond 4TB

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Ultimate Geek
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  # 652121 6-Jul-2012 22:05
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Digmarx: Say the average PC user has 250-1000 GB of personal storage spread among their computing devices. Smart phone, laptop, desktop, tablet, and online storage. Is that likely to increase by need? If so, by how much?


Yes. Buy huge amounts.

If we take the average person now, and assert they will on average use about 3tb storage (all dvd's they own, music, pictures, documents etc) we can say they are well served by current technology.

But people and culture do not remain static. In 10 years time it may be common to retain copies of all your medical files too, all work you have done at employment, daily video logs, all phone calls you have ever made, video calls, coding projects (in some visualized abstract system accessible to most, say), 3d artwork, collaborations, a video version of twitter, personal interest video feeds (nasa or national geographic etc), and long running search agents. This might equal 100's or 1000's of terrabytes.

But it doesn't end there: later still you could be storing whole mind state images for backup or parallel processing ("parallel lives"); molecular models of your body's workings for re-formatting or re-instatement in case of disease, injury, or malfunction or improvements. Your favorite programs for your 3d molecular printer or nano forge. 

One thing is pretty obvious: throughout history an individuals personal data foot print has increased exponentially. There was a time when our ancestors entire life evens would barely fill a a few pages; then a few volumes in a library; then a bookshelf. Now, we have the equivalent of a library of information in our music collection alone.

There was a time when you were thought extravagant to have 500 LP's or CD's in your collection - maybe it was 6000 individual tracks. Now, you just aren't trying unless your have 20,0000.

In a year or two, it will be easy to have enough storage to include a copy of every song ever made. And a year or 5 later it'll fit in your pocket.

Cloud storage? Interesting but always at a natural disadvantage to local personal storage. Cloud storage will always be slower due to physics. It will likely always be inherantly less trustworthy - will the company fold, or be bought out? What about hackers? Viruses? Natural disasters? seizure of assets? megaupload-style attacks by the copyright mafia?
Maybe encryption would help some of this. But I think it'll still need iron clod legal and physical protection - think fort knox - beofre people trust their 'lives' to it. And then you still have it's speed limits... Uploading 20 Tb to the cloud???? Take all year.



 
 
 
 


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  # 652126 6-Jul-2012 22:23
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Digmarx: Mechanical storage density seems to have plateaued, at least for the time being. SSD price per GB is falling. Many of us have large media libraries, but have we reached a storage equilibrium? Will we ever need local storage capacities of orders of magnitude larger than what we have now, or will the inter-connectivity of home networks and so-called "cloud" storage render large mechanical arrays irrelevant in the home?

Personally I have around 6 TB of local storage; a modest amount, but my primary concern is not how to expand it, but how to back it up.


I don't think mechanical storage size has plateaued at all.



http://news.techworld.com/storage/3329890/ibm-makes-breakthrough-cuts-bit-size-12-atoms/

http://phys.org/news192693274.html

http://www.conceivablytech.com/2208/products/seagate-hamr-to-increase-hdd-storage-density-by-50x

http://9to5mac.com/2012/03/20/60tb-drives-made-possible-by-seagates-new-1tbinch-platter-tech/

That is a three second Google search for next generation storage.

Personally I archive a lot of media (film/television/music/photographs etc...) locally on an unRAID server. I have 18TB space available and it can scale up to 57TB assuming I stay with 3TB hard drives.

With a lovely unlimited internet connection I do not see myself slowing down any time soon and I doubt 'cloud' storage will ever catch up to what is possible at home.

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  # 652145 6-Jul-2012 23:39
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1080p:
With a lovely unlimited internet connection I do not see myself slowing down any time soon and I doubt 'cloud' storage will ever catch up to what is possible at home.


It all depends what kind of data you have. If you have loads of unique compressed data then the cloud is unlikely to save you, however if you're storing documents, file systems etc then deduplication could be your solution.

With the Enterprise Backup products I use at work it's not uncommon to see 200x dedupe ratios when backing up only system drives, so assuming you have a backup agent which does source based global dedupe you may not need to actually transfer a lot of data over the wire to protect all your data.

As for trusting cloud storage I can see why some people could be nervous, however if all providers look after their storage infrastructure like we do at work then there isn't any reason to be concerned, and it's far more safe than storing it at home on some Drobo NAS box.

But as always, if you don't have a backup then your data is obviously not important to you.



gzt

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  # 652172 7-Jul-2012 08:16
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After a bit of a lag seems like HDD was easily able to keep up with DVD and media storage requirements. Blueray might challenge it a bit but the takeoff was hindered a bit by a format war as usual.

On the unique home generated side - light field photography and light field video coming out in a few years. Earlier than that Google Glass adoption could lead to a jump earlier.

Bummer about that guy who had a backup failure the same day megaupload was taken down and could not access his business video files. I think he's attempting to gain access through the courts.

Above 1TB or 2TB (roughly the capacity of a single economical drive or x2) a bit of planning and technical knowledge is required for a good solution. Most consumers and many professional users are already stuck around that point for storage IMHO. If more than this is required it tends to add an inertial labour cost to the per GB price. The built in RAID on motherboards never seems up to the task in reality.

On the non-unique side - latest LOTR installment will be 100HZ for instance. Non-unique files media files are ideal for deduplicated cloud storage and retrieval, assuming the pipe can keep up and good CDN is available and transmission costs are low. But that side of things is definitely not keeping up. MU had some good ideas, and hopefully they will be back. The media companies themselves tend to terrible solutions and behind the scenes likely even constrain things Apple/iTunes would like to achieve. The whole waiting for technology to mature thing is just another way of saying they do not understand the market and want to provide half-assed solutions years out of date. They don't understand retail because it has not been a part of their business for many years.



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Master Geek
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  # 652193 7-Jul-2012 10:39
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I guess I was thinking more about the average person, rather than the type of computer user we tend to find on this forum. Recently it seems people's uses have shifted toward portability, e.g. tablets and streaming video.

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Uber Geek
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  # 652195 7-Jul-2012 10:50
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My wife has just made me move the bookshelf full of DVDs out into the garage. Now I need a NAS and a lot of time to sit down and rip them all. *Sigh* I did this in the early 2000s with my CDs. It took *forever*.

Fortunately I can't afford a NAS so I don't have to make the time.




iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


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  # 652211 7-Jul-2012 11:20
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The amount of storage that people manage to consume often astounds me. My MacBook Pro is due for replacement shortly, but I am only just coming up to the limit of its 160Gb hard drive despite having a lifetime of photos and what I consider to be a decent music collection. My next machine will have a 500Gb drive which should easily keep me going for another three years. 

When I hear about people having tens of thousands of songs I really wonder how they manage such an enormous library, and whether they actually even like all of those songs. As for movies, I watch them rarely and never watch them more than once.

It should be noted that I consider myself to be more of an 'average consumer' than the general population on this forum, but i thought it would be interesting to give my perspective. 

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  # 652256 7-Jul-2012 14:16
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tens of thousands of songs? Amateurs! However since getting rdio I have stopped getting so much random stuff off torrents just because its there like I used to, so getting the next quarter million tracks may take a little longer than the first ;)




Richard rich.ms

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