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  Reply # 792947 4-Apr-2013 09:47
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In the fractured and faulty state that NK appears to be in, I would say it won't take much for them to perpetrate an all-out act of war against their nearest neighbour.

Kim seems completely unhinged - more so than his father.

My real concern here is not for the state of NK or even SK - it's the fact that a war in Korea will undoubtedly create tension between China, the US and Russia...now THAT is something we should be worried about.

If Kim ever really had any clue about his position, he'd know that he is largely irrelevant - but his allies are not.





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  Reply # 792954 4-Apr-2013 09:54
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Handsomedan: In the fractured and faulty state that NK appears to be in, I would say it won't take much for them to perpetrate an all-out act of war against their nearest neighbour.

Kim seems completely unhinged - more so than his father.

My real concern here is not for the state of NK or even SK - it's the fact that a war in Korea will undoubtedly create tension between China, the US and Russia...now THAT is something we should be worried about.

If Kim ever really had any clue about his position, he'd know that he is largely irrelevant - but his allies are not.



Hit it on the head, well stated. A perfect summary

 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 793090 4-Apr-2013 12:20
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Handsomedan: In the fractured and faulty state that NK appears to be in, I would say it won't take much for them to perpetrate an all-out act of war against their nearest neighbour.

Kim seems completely unhinged - more so than his father.

My real concern here is not for the state of NK or even SK - it's the fact that a war in Korea will undoubtedly create tension between China, the US and Russia...now THAT is something we should be worried about.

If Kim ever really had any clue about his position, he'd know that he is largely irrelevant - but his allies are not.



Good post. Completely sums it up for me..



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  Reply # 793180 4-Apr-2013 13:42
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war is not just bullets and blood -

it will bankrupt the US for sure - and another global great depression would follow

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  Reply # 793187 4-Apr-2013 13:47
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I read this morning that the NK's have advised Washington that their Military has been approved for Nuclear action

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  Reply # 793208 4-Apr-2013 14:00
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networkn: I read this morning that the NK's have advised Washington that their Military has been approved for Nuclear action


One thing to do the standard NK rhetoric, but a statement like that is far more likely to escalate action. The world can afford a firefight with NK, but not a nuclear threat turning into reality. However, Kim Jong Un is educated, he will know that if he acts, its curtains for his autocratic, inherited position as leader. He won't threaten that, selfism will rule.

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  Reply # 793209 4-Apr-2013 14:03
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Let him use his words, he ain't getting no food or oil this time, I think US/SK flagged that blackmail last time? I hope they did anyway.

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  Reply # 793693 5-Apr-2013 09:17
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This goes back a long way. Clinton made a deal for normalisation of diplomatic and trade relations with North Korea in return for changes in their nuclear industry funded by allies. It was a bit bumpy due to a republican congress but mostly on track - until Clinton lost the election to G.W.Bush. Normalisation meaning a formal end to the Korean war. 

It is hard to believe but NK/US/SK really have existed in a state of war for all these years - including all the tensions you might expect from that situation.

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  Reply # 793707 5-Apr-2013 09:48
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Read some interesting analysis of the situation, IIRC there is a possibility that Kim may be seeking to bring his population into the light.

He was educated overseas and probably has a broader perspective than we may know or believe.

The risk he has at the moment is that he needs to consolidate his power base. Nothing better than some sabre rattling to bring the country to heel including dissenting senior party figures.

If he succeeds, he would be more popular than ever.

Damn I am an optimist!

Jon

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  Reply # 793734 5-Apr-2013 10:18
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mckenndk: After sinking a war ship and shelling an island killing people a few years ago the level of threat is not that high really, I am sure Kim will know that he will be on the loosing end if he goes to war.


Thats not stopped people before. Peronal ego can lead to big problems





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  Reply # 793735 5-Apr-2013 10:19
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He was educated overseas yes ...

How many 29 year-old from uber rich families have you seen or do you know that have their heads screwed on tight?

I think he's not a normal dictator ... he has delusions due to his youth but let's see where it lands him

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  Reply # 793812 5-Apr-2013 12:29
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joker97: He was educated overseas yes ...

How many 29 year-old from uber rich families have you seen or do you know that have their heads screwed on tight?

I think he's not a normal dictator ... he has delusions due to his youth but let's see where it lands him


I think what is the scariest thing of all with Kim is that he's a classic Bond villain type.

He really does not seem to be at all sane in the most literal sense of the word and I don't personally believe he has any inkling of how serious his wild threats actually are for him or the rest of the region.
Does he sit in his lair, stroking a white Persian cat, like some bizarre 1960's charicature of a modern dictator?
I wouldn't be at all surprised if he did.










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  Reply # 793830 5-Apr-2013 13:18
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Handsomedan: 

He really does not seem to be at all sane in the most literal sense of the word and I don't personally believe he has any inkling of how serious his wild threats actually are for him or the rest of the region.


Or he (or his advisors) are very shrewd and realise that his being unpredictable is the only card they hold. Nobody knows what his aims are or what he will do so this keeps everyone hopping. Insane or insanely smart? Time will tell.

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  Reply # 793838 5-Apr-2013 13:40
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SaltyNZ: Why do you think that a war would result in things getting better for ordinary NK citizens? If there's one thing that the past 10 years should have taught you, it's that a war to effect the end of a government doesn't work, especially when the people concerned don't *want* their government ended.


Id imagine the difference in this scenario is that there is a perfectly functioning, rational Korean government already. 

Logically the end of north korea would mean re-unification under southern governance.

Issue would be that the souths economy would take an absolute pasting as it sets about making things better for all its new, impoverished citizens.

Dont forget there are millions of people with family in both countries.




 


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  Reply # 793941 5-Apr-2013 16:06
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rossmnz:nLogically the end of north korea would mean re-unification under southern governance.

Issue would be that the souths economy would take an absolute pasting as it sets about making things better for all its new, impoverished citizens.


Agreed. I think the last thing SK wants is to inherit NK and all its problems in the state it's in at the moment. What they want is for NK to stop being aggressive, open up to the rest of the world, stop human rights abuses etc. Y'know, the usual things you'd expect of a country.

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