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  Reply # 793977 5-Apr-2013 16:54
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rossmnz:
SaltyNZ: Why do you think that a war would result in things getting better for ordinary NK citizens? If there's one thing that the past 10 years should have taught you, it's that a war to effect the end of a government doesn't work, especially when the people concerned don't *want* their government ended.


Id imagine the difference in this scenario is that there is a perfectly functioning, rational Korean government already. 

Logically the end of north korea would mean re-unification under southern governance.


Two things wrong with these statements. First, South Korea has a new President, Park Geun-hye, who is struggling to establish her leadership. The political situation in the south is far from perfectly functioning. It's not even certain that its stable. 

Secondly, reunification under southern governance would mean absorption of a country that provides a buffer between China and a westernised US ally. There is strategic advantage to China in keeping North Korea as is. North and South Korea were under Japanese control until Japan surrendered in WWII. The split of the Korean peninsula happened because of an agreement between the then USSR and the USA. North Korea is communist & ideology doesn't change overnight. The potential for both China and Russia to take exception to any risk of North Korea falling is very high. IMO, the only logical outcome of the end of North Korea is likely to be war between the world's superpowers. China intervened when the UN went into North Korea in the 1950's and this brought about the armistice. Nobody won that war. Yet. 

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  Reply # 795613 9-Apr-2013 13:27
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I can sense the wind of change here.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2013/04/20134905345225943.html

This now makes the situation very real.

25000000 people want to come home. The longer this step takes, the harder it becomes.

Diplomacy can not work here. Absolute power corrupts absolutely and has done so here.  
 

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  Reply # 795618 9-Apr-2013 13:40
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Read an article about the leaders meeting in Germany. Putin not happy with DPRK, and even thanked US for delaying an unrelated test in favour of not aggravating them. Article pondered various possible attacks such as short firing a missile at Japan, who they dont like either. I feel that nothing will happen, or at least any direct attacks, they will want to push their aggravation and seek talks, which will want the usual, food and oil. They could have sought aid in a positive manner, make concessions, get food and oil. Methinks that day is forever gone now. The factory, if shut down will hurt NK citizens. One day, the masses will revolt. How I dunno. Maybe an internal coup at the very top level, if there is citizen unrest to support such action. Probably seems far fetched, but imagine a continually disconnected 25 million poor citizens, making secret noises, that would allow a poltician/military senior to get a group of like minded seniors, and take over for the people. Promises of a better future would go a long way

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  Reply # 797061 10-Apr-2013 11:43
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tdgeek:  imagine a continually disconnected 25 million poor citizens, making secret noises, that would allow a poltician/military senior to get a group of like minded seniors, and take over for the people. Promises of a better future would go a long way


I have a funny feeling that this wouldn't work there - they're so thoroughly brainwashed into thinking that this is their lot in life.

You really need to have an external influence to stir revolt...there simply isn't one for the masses of the underclass in NK.




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  Reply # 797087 10-Apr-2013 12:09
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 Maybe an internal coup at the very top level, if there is citizen unrest to support such action. Probably seems far fetched, but imagine a continually disconnected 25 million poor citizens, making secret noises, that would allow a poltician/military senior to get a group of like minded seniors, and take over for the people. Promises of a better future would go a long way


I see this as the only way things will be resolved in a permanent way.  It will take time.  There has to be already some understanding by at least a small part of the population of the disparity of living standards between the North and South. The workers in the factory must have some idea of what disparity there is. This type of information must surely spread.  Also the general population must realise that things are worse than in the past.




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  Reply # 797088 10-Apr-2013 12:14
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It took Aung San Suu Kyi decades to have a ripple of effect of internal change in her country and her life was preserved by the regime helped a lot

Don't see any internal revolutions happening the way the iron fist is being waived around - probably get terminated within hours of revolting



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  Reply # 797089 10-Apr-2013 12:14
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and the world wouldn't even know it happened



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  Reply # 797090 10-Apr-2013 12:15
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http://www.ted.com/talks/hyeonseo_lee_my_escape_from_north_korea.html

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  Reply # 797182 10-Apr-2013 14:32
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joker97: It took Aung San Suu Kyi decades to have a ripple of effect of internal change in her country and her life was preserved by the regime helped a lot

Don't see any internal revolutions happening the way the iron fist is being waived around - probably get terminated within hours of revolting


My main point was that effective change has to come from within, it cannot be foisted upon anyone from the outside because then it is rejected.  The North Korean people have to want the change, once they want it then help for that change from outside will be accepted.




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  Reply # 797183 10-Apr-2013 14:36
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not possible

you have never been brainwashed by propaganda you cannot understand why the north koreans are worshiping their leader and believe in their heart of hearts YOU are their enemy, YOU are the cause of every bit of their suffering

ok maybe there is say 1% of people who sees thru the brainwashing but it is not possible to get another 50% to do that as long as your tv, radio, newspaper, school curriculum, songs you hear and learn, are all about the above 16 hrs a day 365.25 days a year

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  Reply # 797199 10-Apr-2013 15:08
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Correct.

They're indoctrinated as thoroughly as any western (or eastern) religious zealot is.




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  Reply # 797214 10-Apr-2013 15:46
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joker97: not possible

you have never been brainwashed by propaganda you cannot understand why the north koreans are worshiping their leader and believe in their heart of hearts YOU are their enemy, YOU are the cause of every bit of their suffering

ok maybe there is say 1% of people who sees thru the brainwashing but it is not possible to get another 50% to do that as long as your tv, radio, newspaper, school curriculum, songs you hear and learn, are all about the above 16 hrs a day 365.25 days a year


Two points.

I wasn't trying to say change from within was likely to happen, the point I was trying to make was that change has to come from within for the change to be effective versus change being forced from outside.

However........

I believe anything is possible though it will probably take a long long time.  Have a look at what happened to Eastern Germany and the Iron Curtain, even mainland China (which still has a way to go in many areas but there have been major changes in recent years).  Sure there will probably be many dissidents who will pay the ultimate price along the way, but slowly the chinks will appear and the general population will gradually become aware of another world. For example, how can the workers at the factory that's been closed not be aware of a different world outside of North Korea.

I will agree that right now That the north koreans are worshiping their leader and believe in their heart of hearts YOU are their enemy, YOU are the cause of every bit of their suffering

This will slowly change, history shows that regimes like this cannot last for ever.





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  Reply # 797219 10-Apr-2013 15:54
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Handsomedan: Correct.

They're indoctrinated as thoroughly as any western (or eastern) religious zealot is.


just out of curiosity ... is there such a thing as a western originated religion? (not talking about cults or stuff like that but i guess you could argue what is a cult etc but a cult leads their followers to nothing good i guess)

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  Reply # 797234 10-Apr-2013 16:29
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joker97:
Handsomedan: Correct.

They're indoctrinated as thoroughly as any western (or eastern) religious zealot is.


just out of curiosity ... is there such a thing as a western originated religion? (not talking about cults or stuff like that but i guess you could argue what is a cult etc but a cult leads their followers to nothing good i guess)


Depends how you define Scientology.

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  Reply # 797494 10-Apr-2013 22:56
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joker97:
Handsomedan: Correct.

They're indoctrinated as thoroughly as any western (or eastern) religious zealot is.


just out of curiosity ... is there such a thing as a western originated religion? (not talking about cults or stuff like that but i guess you could argue what is a cult etc but a cult leads their followers to nothing good i guess)
Roman Catholics.
Whilst Christianity is from the Middle East, the Catholic Faith is from Europe.
Splitting hairs I know.




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