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810 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 886438 29-Aug-2013 12:00
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6FIEND:
Woolly:
Here's some Stats:

Total Votes Cast for National Party 2011
1,058,636
Electors on Master Roll who did not Vote
791,858

http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/e9/html/statistics.html

Total votes for GCSB Bill
5,879 (11%)
Opposed
46,790 (89%)

http://www.3news.co.nz/Campbell-Live-GCSB-roadie-poll-end/tabid/817/articleID/309661/Default.aspx



Here's how those stats combine:

46,790 / 1,058,636 = 4.4%

...so, over twenty times more people voted for the National Party than voted against the GCSB legislation.


Lies.  Damn lies.  And statistics :-)


One is a national election where everybody is well informed that it is happening, asked to participate, and there are polling booths everywhere for you to use. The other is something I don't even know about, not even mentioned here, I never "voted against" myself because I never had the chance, someone I live with today asked me about the GCSB bill because they didn't even know what was going on despite the fact it's already passed... Your comparing apples to walrus flatulence.

648 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 886462 29-Aug-2013 12:32
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Not that I'm going to disagree with your assessment of "Campbell Live" being analagous to "walrus flatulence"...

However, the program did undertake a sustained campaign on the issue. They "went of the road" the length and breadth of NZ soliciting votes. They had debates on the matter (including 'that interview' with the county's PM), they had endorsements from a wide range of 'experts' and 'personalities'... They undertook all of this during prime time viewing hours, and they also allowed online voting as well as "in person".

If you think that a broadcasting "minnow" like Mediaworks could never match a million+ votes based on a TV show, consider that they have already exceeded the half-million vote mark for a single episode! (NBR source)

I'm not going to be rediculous and suggest that it was equivalent to a General Election, however I will postulate that it's as close to equivalent as you could make it without involving central government.
(Of course, the perfect test would be a National Referendum)

But my real point was... you can make statistics support just about any position :-)

810 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 886574 29-Aug-2013 15:13
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Don't own a TV, haven't for years. Too many ads, and not interested in watching things by some networks schedule.

Sure, you can abuse statistics to support whatever you want, but a proper statistical analysis will report on a bunch of factors and declare it's shortfalls. "This number divided by that and therefore my point is proved" is simply a declaration of ignorance. [edit]or deception.


* Posting delayed by a few hours due to telecom outage... *

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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 886592 29-Aug-2013 15:28
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...yep. That's exactly my point.

Which is why posting up results from two different votes - one universal (a proxy of the General Election), the other entirely self-selecting (a TV poll showing 89% opposition to something) and using the results to claim some kind of moral high ground deserves to be called out and rideculed.

Obviously my throwaway cliche comment and emoticon are insufficient to stop people taking my mockery as a serious argument...

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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 886603 29-Aug-2013 15:51
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Ah, I'm with you now. I think I should just go back to bed today...

119 posts

Master Geek
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  Reply # 886765 29-Aug-2013 21:21
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PaulBags comment about "walrus flatulence" made me laugh out loud. :) Thank you.

6FIEND ["Lies.  Damn lies.  And statistics :-)"] - so true.

I should've said "Here's some Statistic's (plural) I find interesting:" rather than "Here's some Stats:"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Votes Cast for National Party 2011
1,058,636 (a)
Electors on Master Roll who did not Vote
791,858 (b)

This one I find interesting because of the questions it raises (not because of the party):
- Why did so many not vote? No input into decisions, lack of time, don't care, vote of no confidence, would not make a difference anyway, ...?
- What happens when (b) is greater than (a)?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total votes for GCSB Bill
5,879 (11%)
Opposed
46,790 (89%)

The questions raised by this:
- Was the issue presented fairly?
- Did people do their own research beyond Campbell Live?
- Did people have issues with Spying in general or the GCSB Bill?
- If the survey result was close to how people thought then how did it pass?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Powershift by Alvin Toffler predicted that decisions would be made on abstract data based on abstract data etc.

In the derivatives market this has come to pass.

Global warming data is a good example of this.

In the 70's it was Global Cooling.

When the data doesn't stack up, the propaganda is changed eg "Climate Change".

I'm not for pollution, I do have questions about the solution players.


Share Everything Plan


509 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 886774 29-Aug-2013 22:11
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Woolly: PaulBags comment about "walrus flatulence" made me laugh out loud. :) Thank you.

6FIEND ["Lies. Damn lies. And statistics :-)"] - so true.

I should've said "Here's some Statistic's (plural) I find interesting:" rather than "Here's some Stats:"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Votes Cast for National Party 2011
1,058,636 (a)
Electors on Master Roll who did not Vote
791,858 (b)

This one I find interesting because of the questions it raises (not because of the party):
- Why did so many not vote? <--Snip


Its a sign of apathy when a significant number of people don't vote. It's usually because they either are sufficiently happy with the way things are , it might be too hard, perhaps voting means packing the kids up and driving 200m down the road to vote. The other reason is they are so disillusioned with politicians they feel there is little point.

Now if we lived in a brutal, unfair, unjust environment, which we don't by comparison to many other countries, that would change, dramatically. Every bugger would vote in the hope that the desired party would change things for the better. I have a feeling more people will vote in the next election but as to whether they get a much different government is probably more determined by who is pulling the strings. Frankly I'd like to see us vote for the advisers rather than the politicians.

Politicians are of course, not particularly capable of acting in the best interests of their electorates. For a start it's almost a pre requisite these days that MP's have to " tow the party line" rather than represent their electorate. When they do attempt this they are often accused of listening to noisy minorities and I'm not entirely sure the average MP knows how their electorate feels about many issues as they don't have much ability to poll them.

My prediction is that someone will shortly develop a cellphone app that allows people to vote, not just on the party that gets in but on every part of local and national government business, geographically, by issue, whether it be a bill, a decision etc. That would be true democracy.
I actually thought about making a demo app for this, but the guy who makes that app will probably be buried in a dark hole or live in an embassy for the rest of his life as it would take power off politicians and the people who pull their strings and place it into the hands of the people, other than some fairly difficult security, authentication and privacy issues, it's quite achievable. It always bothers me how polls are so very small, easily manipulated and of course are quite expensive.

Consider for example when 2 countries go to war, politicians on both sides rarely solve the issues of disparity. Now if you put 1000 Joe Blogs public without too many vested interests, from each side , get them to listen to each other and talk about a solution I could almost guarantee there would be far more workable solution. Put simply, politicians are not effective at their jobs , history has all the evidence, technology can change this. But, I bet it never happens :)

810 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 886776 29-Aug-2013 22:22
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Woolly:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Votes Cast for National Party 2011
1,058,636 (a)
Electors on Master Roll who did not Vote
791,858 (b)

This one I find interesting because of the questions it raises (not because of the party):
- Why did so many not vote? No input into decisions, lack of time, don't care, vote of no confidence, would not make a difference anyway, ...?
- What happens when (b) is greater than (a)?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm curious if (b) includes informal votes, or if the number of people who 'failed to successfully cast a vote' is higher again.

119 posts

Master Geek
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  Reply # 886794 30-Aug-2013 00:23
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Total Votes Cast for National Party 2011
1,058,636 (a) http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/e9/html/e9_part4.html
Electors on Master Roll who did not Vote
791,858 (b) http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/e9/html/e9_part9_1.html

Hi Paulbags, your question [I'm curious if (b) includes informal votes, or if the number of people who 'failed to successfully cast a vote' is higher again.]

An informal vote is when the voter has not clearly indicated the option for which they wish to vote.

Electors on Master Roll who did not Vote (b) - Does not include informal votes

Informal Votes 2011
19,872.

Should other men or women, control how you live if you do not harm others?







12846 posts

Uber Geek
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  Reply # 886854 30-Aug-2013 07:54
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turnin:
Woolly: PaulBags comment about "walrus flatulence" made me laugh out loud. :) Thank you.

6FIEND ["Lies. Damn lies. And statistics :-)"] - so true.

I should've said "Here's some Statistic's (plural) I find interesting:" rather than "Here's some Stats:"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Votes Cast for National Party 2011
1,058,636 (a)
Electors on Master Roll who did not Vote
791,858 (b)

This one I find interesting because of the questions it raises (not because of the party):
- Why did so many not vote? <--Snip


Its a sign of apathy when a significant number of people don't vote. It's usually because they either are sufficiently happy with the way things are , it might be too hard, perhaps voting means packing the kids up and driving 200m down the road to vote. The other reason is they are so disillusioned with politicians they feel there is little point.

Now if we lived in a brutal, unfair, unjust environment, which we don't by comparison to many other countries, that would change, dramatically. Every bugger would vote in the hope that the desired party would change things for the better. I have a feeling more people will vote in the next election but as to whether they get a much different government is probably more determined by who is pulling the strings. Frankly I'd like to see us vote for the advisers rather than the politicians.

Politicians are of course, not particularly capable of acting in the best interests of their electorates. For a start it's almost a pre requisite these days that MP's have to " tow the party line" rather than represent their electorate. When they do attempt this they are often accused of listening to noisy minorities and I'm not entirely sure the average MP knows how their electorate feels about many issues as they don't have much ability to poll them.

My prediction is that someone will shortly develop a cellphone app that allows people to vote, not just on the party that gets in but on every part of local and national government business, geographically, by issue, whether it be a bill, a decision etc. That would be true democracy.
I actually thought about making a demo app for this, but the guy who makes that app will probably be buried in a dark hole or live in an embassy for the rest of his life as it would take power off politicians and the people who pull their strings and place it into the hands of the people, other than some fairly difficult security, authentication and privacy issues, it's quite achievable. It always bothers me how polls are so very small, easily manipulated and of course are quite expensive.

Consider for example when 2 countries go to war, politicians on both sides rarely solve the issues of disparity. Now if you put 1000 Joe Blogs public without too many vested interests, from each side , get them to listen to each other and talk about a solution I could almost guarantee there would be far more workable solution. Put simply, politicians are not effective at their jobs , history has all the evidence, technology can change this. But, I bet it never happens :)


Not voting is a democratic right, also the decision not to vote can be a legitimate electoral choice. There was one General Election I chose not to vote, I did not agree with the polices of any party at the time and the candidates standing in my electorate were useless, therefore my best choice was not to vote.




Mike
Retired IT Manager. 
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

 Mac user, Windows curser, Chrome OS desired.

 

The great divide is the lies from both sides.

 

 


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  Reply # 886858 30-Aug-2013 08:17
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turnin:
My prediction is that someone will shortly develop a cellphone app that allows people to vote, not just on the party that gets in but on every part of local and national government business, geographically, by issue, whether it be a bill, a decision etc. That would be true democracy.
I actually thought about making a demo app for this, but the guy who makes that app will probably be buried in a dark hole or live in an embassy for the rest of his life as it would take power off politicians and the people who pull their strings and place it into the hands of the people, other than some fairly difficult security, authentication and privacy issues, it's quite achievable. It always bothers me how polls are so very small, easily manipulated and of course are quite expensive.


It wont work. Because that is where democracy is flawed. If ever person had the ability to vote on every single piece of legislation it would eventually lead to mob rule.

the majority would end up voting out tax, gst, speed limits etc ...

There needs to be some form of dictatorship.

We don't want true democracy and we should not be striving for it either


119 posts

Master Geek
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  Reply # 887197 30-Aug-2013 20:04
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Hi Klipspringer: [It wont work. Because that is where democracy is flawed.
If ever person had the ability to vote on every single piece of legislation it would eventually lead to mob rule.
the majority would end up voting out tax, gst, speed limits etc ...There needs to be some form of dictatorship.
We don't want true democracy and we should not be striving for it either]

Democracy is Mob Rule with the illusion of fairness once a day, every 3 years or so.

Regarding Trivial Referendum in a Direct Democracy:

Please listen from 8:44
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZBnpRAx9ug

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi Turnin - You covered a lot of ground in your last post identifying problems and possible solutions, thankyou.

I developed an app for RFP's (Request for Proposal) some years ago.

Basically it's a list of statements. Eg from the trivial like "Onsite vendor empoyee's are required to wear a shirt to identify which company they are from" to the liability side.
Each department would give a statement a weight of how important it was to them.
The legal department also had to be involved as well.
Each response from several vendors would then be scored on their response with the weighting taken into account. To choose a vendor.

NZ Government Acts are very similar. Actors creating acts.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

How you word a question can create different responses.

Eg Do you support the GCSB bill?
A) Yes
B) No

Is spying on others Ok with you?
A) Never.
B) Sometimes
C) Always.

It's the Why that counts most, which multi choice, drop down menus does not convey or record.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Collaborative Decision Making.

Here's a NZ company http://www.1000minds.com/ I've been researching. I have no association with this company, apart from signing up for 30 a day demo to play.

I went thru the demo: Allocating budget for city council or local government authority.

In my view it would be a fantastic tool for framing topics before a meeting started.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In Athens at one stage they had no faith in democracy as it was easily controlled by those with money. Their solution was to randomly pick 500 people to govern.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KiwiNZ: A friend suggested I should vote but not fill in the form, my question was "Would that make me complicit in the actions of the government voted in?" No Answer.

A question for a ratepayer should be: by paying rates are you liable for the councils debt?

All the best.

History repeats.
wmd


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  Reply # 887233 30-Aug-2013 22:54
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KiwiNZ:
turnin:
Woolly: PaulBags comment about "walrus flatulence" made me laugh out loud. :) Thank you.

6FIEND ["Lies. Damn lies. And statistics :-)"] - so true.

I should've said "Here's some Statistic's (plural) I find interesting:" rather than "Here's some Stats:"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Votes Cast for National Party 2011
1,058,636 (a)
Electors on Master Roll who did not Vote
791,858 (b)

This one I find interesting because of the questions it raises (not because of the party):
- Why did so many not vote? <--Snip


Its a sign of apathy when a significant number of people don't vote. It's usually because they either are sufficiently happy with the way things are , it might be too hard, perhaps voting means packing the kids up and driving 200m down the road to vote. The other reason is they are so disillusioned with politicians they feel there is little point.

Now if we lived in a brutal, unfair, unjust environment, which we don't by comparison to many other countries, that would change, dramatically. Every bugger would vote in the hope that the desired party would change things for the better. I have a feeling more people will vote in the next election but as to whether they get a much different government is probably more determined by who is pulling the strings. Frankly I'd like to see us vote for the advisers rather than the politicians.

Politicians are of course, not particularly capable of acting in the best interests of their electorates. For a start it's almost a pre requisite these days that MP's have to " tow the party line" rather than represent their electorate. When they do attempt this they are often accused of listening to noisy minorities and I'm not entirely sure the average MP knows how their electorate feels about many issues as they don't have much ability to poll them.

My prediction is that someone will shortly develop a cellphone app that allows people to vote, not just on the party that gets in but on every part of local and national government business, geographically, by issue, whether it be a bill, a decision etc. That would be true democracy.
I actually thought about making a demo app for this, but the guy who makes that app will probably be buried in a dark hole or live in an embassy for the rest of his life as it would take power off politicians and the people who pull their strings and place it into the hands of the people, other than some fairly difficult security, authentication and privacy issues, it's quite achievable. It always bothers me how polls are so very small, easily manipulated and of course are quite expensive.

Consider for example when 2 countries go to war, politicians on both sides rarely solve the issues of disparity. Now if you put 1000 Joe Blogs public without too many vested interests, from each side , get them to listen to each other and talk about a solution I could almost guarantee there would be far more workable solution. Put simply, politicians are not effective at their jobs , history has all the evidence, technology can change this. But, I bet it never happens :)


Not voting is a democratic right, also the decision not to vote can be a legitimate electoral choice. There was one General Election I chose not to vote, I did not agree with the polices of any party at the time and the candidates standing in my electorate were useless, therefore my best choice was not to vote.


The right not to be forced to appear on a 'list' of voters should also be a democratic right (but isn't - you technically get fined for not being on it). My NZ passport should be all the ID required for me to vote in NZ - I see no need for my name and address to appear on a publicly accessible list. I would say I have given that information voluntarily to less than 100 people in NZ, so why should I be forced to make it publicly available?

Oh and because my Aspergers won't let me let it slide...that would be 'toe the line' not 'tow the line'...! ;-)





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  Reply # 962750 7-Jan-2014 21:05
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On topic again... Revelations about the break in into a FBI office in the 70s. The burglars can now talk about since they can no longer be prosecuted. Their intent was to find evidence of wrongdoing inside the FBI. And find they did:


Since 1956, the F.B.I. had carried out an expansive campaign to spy on civil rights leaders, political organizers and suspected Communists, and had tried to sow distrust among protest groups. Among the grim litany of revelations was a blackmail letter F.B.I. agents had sent anonymously to the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., threatening to expose his extramarital affairs if he did not commit suicide.

“It wasn’t just spying on Americans,” said Loch K. Johnson, a professor of public and international affairs at the University of Georgia who was an aide to Senator Frank Church, Democrat of Idaho. “The intent of Cointelpro was to destroy lives and ruin reputations.”

Senator Church’s investigation in the mid-1970s revealed still more about the extent of decades of F.B.I. abuses, and led to greater congressional oversight of the F.B.I. and other American intelligence agencies. The Church Committee’s final report about the domestic surveillance was blunt. “Too many people have been spied upon by too many government agencies, and too much information has been collected,” it read.

By the time the committee released its report, Hoover was dead and the empire he had built at the F.B.I. was being steadily dismantled. The roughly 200 agents he had assigned to investigate the Media burglary came back empty-handed, and the F.B.I. closed the case on March 11, 1976 — three days after the statute of limitations for burglary charges had expired.

“It looks like we’re terribly reckless people,” Mr. Raines said. “But there was absolutely no one in Washington — senators, congressmen, even the president — who dared hold J. Edgar Hoover to accountability.”

"It became pretty obvious to us,” he said, “that if we don’t do it, nobody will.”


What happen when power is left unchecked...




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  Reply # 962758 7-Jan-2014 21:14
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No problem spying on Commies in my book. Have at it!





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