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  Reply # 879651 16-Aug-2013 16:43
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minigopher17:
mattwnz: so their predictions are a bit off. I don't think they should make those sorts of predictions.


Geonet don't predict - they give probabilities.


Only the Moon man predicts :p




Mike
Retired IT Manager. 
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

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The great divide is the lies from both sides.

 

 


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  Reply # 879653 16-Aug-2013 16:47
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minigopher17:
mattwnz: so their predictions are a bit off. I don't think they should make those sorts of predictions.


Geonet don't predict - they give probabilities.


Well done for pointing this out correctly.

And now the clock gets reset, and probabilities re-modelled based on the multiple packed in 5.x aftershocks

Just as bad as the media picking up the automatically generated 6.9 figure and publicising it then covering it up after so they don't look like knobs. Aint over till fat lady sings, and likewise not correct till 'reviewed' :)

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  Reply # 879655 16-Aug-2013 16:50
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Was interesting, was at Supreme on Woodward Street making a Chemex and I had just poured some water and started walking back to my perch when it hit and it was a momentary *wtf I'm losing balance* before the *oh its an earthquake*

How did the Vodafone network fair? Telecom XT was down within about a minute of it happening..

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  Reply # 879666 16-Aug-2013 16:59
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Oblivian:
minigopher17:
mattwnz: so their predictions are a bit off. I don't think they should make those sorts of predictions.


Geonet don't predict - they give probabilities.


Well done for pointing this out correctly.

And now the clock gets reset, and probabilities re-modelled based on the multiple packed in 5.x aftershocks

Just as bad as the media picking up the automatically generated 6.9 figure and publicising it then covering it up after so they don't look like knobs. Aint over till fat lady sings, and likewise not correct till 'reviewed' :)



The big one back in July I believe got downgraded to 5.9, when originally it was 6.8, then downgraded to 6.2.
The earthquake experts don't really know, apart from knowing that this one is part of a swarm, rather than following the normal big shake, then aftershocks. They also don't know that this one couldn't cause stress on other faults that would cause one of them to rupture. The thing is, would they actually disclose the probabilities if they saw a very large one occurring, as that would cause panic.

They now say this one was a 6.6

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  Reply # 879668 16-Aug-2013 17:03
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Dratsab: How is the old Public Trust building looking?


As there aren't any photos coming in of it, I am sure it is fine. I think it is now empty anyway. I think it has been strengthened in the past, but probably not up to the current standards for EQ strengthened buildings.

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  Reply # 879670 16-Aug-2013 17:16
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mattwnz:
Oblivian:
minigopher17:
mattwnz: so their predictions are a bit off. I don't think they should make those sorts of predictions.


Geonet don't predict - they give probabilities.


Well done for pointing this out correctly.

And now the clock gets reset, and probabilities re-modelled based on the multiple packed in 5.x aftershocks

Just as bad as the media picking up the automatically generated 6.9 figure and publicising it then covering it up after so they don't look like knobs. Aint over till fat lady sings, and likewise not correct till 'reviewed' :)



 ->snip They also don't know that this one couldn't cause stress on other faults that would cause one of them to rupture. <-snip



Which I think it has, since the Seddon shake today there have been multiple quakes in the central north island around Taihape, this area did have some small quakes yesterday  



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  Reply # 879671 16-Aug-2013 17:16
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mattwnz:
iamspark:
mattwnz: I don't think it felt as bad as the big one a few weeks ago, which I think got downgraded anyway. As long as they don't get worse. The rolling ones aren't too bad, just make you feel a bit woozy. The severity rating is more relevant than the number.
The experts did have a 20% prediction that there would be another one over 6 which is quite low odds, so their predictions are a bit off. I don't think they should make those sorts of predictions.


That such an earthquake occurred after a 20% chance was defined does not in any way mean that their predictions are off.


Obviously. If they said there was a 1% cahnce, then the prediction would still be correct. But saying 20% is a relatively low figure, that may have lulled people into a false sense of security. I would prefer that they didn't make such predictions using percentages, as they really don't know. 


20% is one chance in 5, its not that low really. In ChCh, there was a high level of awareness, where you park, etc, etc, that fades, which is common from what I read, human nature



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  Reply # 879673 16-Aug-2013 17:26
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old3eyes: A bummer going home Friday nite in Wellywood with all the trains and buses stopped.


Even worse being stuck ON a train when it stops mid-station and can't proceed until it's given the all clear :P

On the bright side it was a nice impromptu hour walk home, being entertained by some rather frustrated motorists.

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  Reply # 879681 16-Aug-2013 17:44
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Not to sound insensitive but was there actually any damage? I mean, other than a couple of glasses and bottles?

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  Reply # 879683 16-Aug-2013 17:49
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PaulBags: Not to sound insensitive but was there actually any damage? I mean, other than a couple of glasses and bottles?


Yes, broken windows, tiles between buildings etc, but doesn't appear to be any really major apart from in seddon. But can see where you are coming from, the media are milking it, possibily the number of cameras and video cameras and intsant news. I suspect if the chch earthquakes hadn't occured, it wouldn't have been as big a news. We have had EQs this large before after all in Wellington during the working day. 

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  Reply # 879693 16-Aug-2013 18:03
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mattwnz:
The big one back in July I believe got downgraded to 5.9, when originally it was 6.8, then downgraded to 6.2.
The earthquake experts don't really know, apart from knowing that this one is part of a swarm, rather than following the normal big shake, then aftershocks. They also don't know that this one couldn't cause stress on other faults that would cause one of them to rupture. The thing is, would they actually disclose the probabilities if they saw a very large one occurring, as that would cause panic.

They now say this one was a 6.6


What was a 6.6? if you are reading the feeds as they come, that is exactly what I am talking about. Don't take the readings with a grain of salt until it is reviewed. 'They' Don't say they are any particular strength when the data is first posted. The COMPUTER does, based on HEAPs of data being sent to it. Once reviewed by an oncall engineer, its official reading is locked in. And yes, sometimes can be re-adjusted after that if there are not enough sensors within the region. But not often.

Open the actual link and view the event. Notice the "automatic" its a computer, guessing. Wait 15mins (or more as there are so many) and it will become 'reviewed'

The experts do know magnitudes after reviewing the data. The computer does not.

IE THis one, was posted to twitter and facebook as a 5.4, then 5.7 and now 6 after reviewed status. http://geonet.org.nz/quakes/2013p614135

This is the downside to them adding the quick updates due to demands from public. Inaccurate data feeds that change constantly until reviewed that cause people to say the readings are up the wop

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  Reply # 879706 16-Aug-2013 18:11
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Oblivian:
mattwnz:
The big one back in July I believe got downgraded to 5.9, when originally it was 6.8, then downgraded to 6.2.
The earthquake experts don't really know, apart from knowing that this one is part of a swarm, rather than following the normal big shake, then aftershocks. They also don't know that this one couldn't cause stress on other faults that would cause one of them to rupture. The thing is, would they actually disclose the probabilities if they saw a very large one occurring, as that would cause panic.

They now say this one was a 6.6


What was a 6.6? if you are reading the feeds as they come, that is exactly what I am talking about. Don't take the readings with a grain of salt until it is reviewed. 'They' Don't say they are any particular strength when the data is first posted. The COMPUTER does, based on HEAPs of data being sent to it. Once reviewed by an oncall engineer, its official reading is locked in. And yes, sometimes can be re-adjusted after that if there are not enough sensors within the region. But not often.


The big one was, when I last checked it had already been revised a number of times, and it had gone from 6.2 up to 6.6, so over time it should be more accurate, and that was at least a few hours afterwards. The problem is the old EQ's seem to drop off the Geonet website. It is a pretty poor website.

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  Reply # 879708 16-Aug-2013 18:14
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lol:

http://www.thecivilian.co.nz/media-feels-things-would-be-a-lot-easier-if-seddon-would-just-rename-itself-wellington/

Definitely felt in Palmerston North and up to Napier / Whanganui.  Saw some people at work in Palmerston get under desks.
Bigger thoughts/feelings with this hitting during the working day this time.

As before though, quite a rolling motion, leaves many feeling queasy / nauseous and also wondering if it's still going for a while after it's actually stopped.

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  Reply # 879710 16-Aug-2013 18:17
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Geonet have settled back on a 6.6 http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2013p613797

Personally, I feel it was much stronger than the last one. I saw our building move and sway.

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  Reply # 879720 16-Aug-2013 18:28
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rp1790: Geonet have settled back on a 6.6 http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2013p613797

Personally, I feel it was much stronger than the last one. I saw our building move and sway.


Yes, and that 6.6 figure shows it has been reviewed to.  Although in the coming weeks it may drop. How do you view all the historic EQ's on their website, it only seem to show the last 20 or so.

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