Cyclone Lusi discussion thread

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Reply # 1006347 15-Mar-2014 18:47
sdav: Buzz Bumble: Get back to us when the weather forecasters get it EXACTLY correct every single time ... until then it's just a lot of guesswork based on scientific underpinnings, which is why most weather forecasts are very vague. That could apply to so many industries, jobs... What work do you do where you are correct every single time? I wonder about that as well.. But I dont think we will get the answer

Brunzy

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Reply # 1006348 15-Mar-2014 18:49
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/295296/boy-missing-beach-false-alarm

MikeB4

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Reply # 1006355 15-Mar-2014 18:59
Buzz Bumble: Get back to us when the weather forecasters get it EXACTLY correct every single time ... until then it's just a lot of guesswork based on scientific underpinnings, which is why most weather forecasts (like most other types of "prediction") are very vague. Forecasting for a maritime nation at our latitude Discovery difficult, events like this especially so. These storms can either power up or power down in a very unpredictable manner. As a person that over the years has been dependant on forecasting I have found the NZ forecasting very good. Mike IT Management Consultant, Freelance money spender The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation. Take My Advice, Pull Down Your Pants And Slide On The Ice!

Buzz Bumble

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Reply # 1006366 15-Mar-2014 19:08
sdav: That could apply to so many industries, jobs... "Many industries, jobs..." don't claim to be a science. What work do you do where you are correct every single time? I'll let you know ... when I claim that my work is a science ... which won't happen because it's not. If the "exact" and "everytime" get your knickers in a knot, they how about getting a proper forecast right ANY time. Vague predicitions to cover their asses don't qualify.

MikeB4

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Reply # 1006370 15-Mar-2014 19:14
Buzz Bumble: sdav: That could apply to so many industries, jobs... "Many industries, jobs..." don't claim to be a science. What work do you do where you are correct every single time? I'll let you know ... when I claim that my work is a science ... which won't happen because it's not. If the "exact" and "everytime" get your knickers in a knot, they how about getting a proper forecast right ANY time. Vague predicitions to cover their asses don't qualify. Well Meteorology is a science combining several scientific disciplines Mike IT Management Consultant, Freelance money spender The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation. Take My Advice, Pull Down Your Pants And Slide On The Ice!

sdav

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Reply # 1006374 15-Mar-2014 19:37
Buzz Bumble: sdav: That could apply to so many industries, jobs... "Many industries, jobs..." don't claim to be a science. What work do you do where you are correct every single time? I'll let you know ... when I claim that my work is a science ... which won't happen because it's not. If the "exact" and "everytime" get your knickers in a knot, they how about getting a proper forecast right ANY time. Vague predicitions to cover their asses don't qualify. lol the very word forecast means prediction or estimate! And forecasts I have found are pretty good.

sdav

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Reply # 1006375 15-Mar-2014 19:39
They use scientific techniques to predict what the weather may do. It's not a hard concept to grasp. If you think it was blown out of proportion that is entirely in your own head for reading (and believing) all the media hype about it and not understanding weather systems.

MaxLV

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Reply # 1006475 15-Mar-2014 22:49
Buzz Bumble: mattwnz: I don't think it has been overhyped by the forcasters, they are just stating the facts. Forecasters are stating the possibility that their psuedo-scientific computer models have "predicted" ... and are usually wrong. (There was an item in the newspaper just this week about the supposed storm and that the computer models had "predicted" lots of differing outcomes.) By "weather forecasters" most people tend to mean the celebrity presenters on TV, so they actually are part of the over-hyping media. The wind and drizzle has picked up a bit again in Auckland. Maybe the other edge of the "storm". You mean like their pseudo scientific computer models that predict AGW as a fact and that only the human species can save the planet from the imminent destruction of a 3 - 5 degree temperature rise? Their computers told therm Cyclone Lusi was going to be a bad one, they told the news media who immediately ran their 'beat up' of the 'story'. So far in Wellington, all we have is very light rain, (maximum 1.8mm/hr at my location) and no wind...

gzt

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Reply # 1006489 15-Mar-2014 23:38
Imho the forecasting was sensible in the circumstances, and the forecasting provided the opportunity for risk minimisation. For exposed areas it was well worth preparing for the forecast gusts which did arrive. Remember also that forecasting becomes more accurate the closer to a point in time. The forecast earlier today for this evening was very accurate. Compare that to the forecast for this evening 3 days ago. Because trying to make prediction much further into the future.

Geektastic

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Reply # 1006492 15-Mar-2014 23:42	One person supports this post
Some minor rain and a bit of a breeze here!

sdav

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Reply # 1006496 15-Mar-2014 23:57
MaxLV: Buzz Bumble: mattwnz: I don't think it has been overhyped by the forcasters, they are just stating the facts. Forecasters are stating the possibility that their psuedo-scientific computer models have "predicted" ... and are usually wrong. (There was an item in the newspaper just this week about the supposed storm and that the computer models had "predicted" lots of differing outcomes.) By "weather forecasters" most people tend to mean the celebrity presenters on TV, so they actually are part of the over-hyping media. The wind and drizzle has picked up a bit again in Auckland. Maybe the other edge of the "storm". You mean like their pseudo scientific computer models that predict AGW as a fact and that only the human species can save the planet from the imminent destruction of a 3 - 5 degree temperature rise? Their computers told therm Cyclone Lusi was going to be a bad one, they told the news media who immediately ran their 'beat up' of the 'story'. So far in Wellington, all we have is very light rain, (maximum 1.8mm/hr at my location) and no wind... There is still a cyclone of the coast of NZ. Nothing has changed that. The effect is always hard to predict because these system depower close to land mass. Sometimes they don't.

insane

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Reply # 1006507 16-Mar-2014 00:38
Geektastic: Some minor rain and a bit of a breeze here! Same. I'm in Albany and it wasn't such a bad day at all, only rained half of the day followed with some medium gusts of wind. Probably had 10 worse days last winter.

Sidestep

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Reply # 1006583 16-Mar-2014 10:05
Here (45km North of Kaitaia, East coast) we got hit reasonably hard. The very slight, last minute western deviation of the cyclone saved us a lot more damage. The accurate prediction of the arrival of this weather - correct to the hour - allowed us to prepare. If we hadn't known almost a week ahead we wouldn't have thought to check out the main generator (auto start battery was flat) or the chainsaws (only one working & needed a service). Moved vehicles away from trees, tarped everything against the salt spray, cleaned all the downpipes and tank filters etc. None of this stuff would be necessary in the city, up here is very important. Better to over predict than the opposite. Thank you weather forecasters!

Buzz Bumble

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Reply # 1006593 16-Mar-2014 10:22
As usual and unsurprsingly, the over-hyped storm in a teacup has passed with little to no problems (that I've read or heard so far). The media REALLY and seriously need to take a much tighter control of their reporting. Just like "The Boy Who Cried Wolf", the more they continue to over-hype things, the less people are going to bother believing them.

Sidestep

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Reply # 1006599 16-Mar-2014 10:37
Of course if we believed what the MEDIA predicted we'd have retreated to the Bunker with a weeks supply of everything.. I personally just watch the actual weather forecast ;)

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