Cyclone Lusi discussion thread

Forums › Off topic › Cyclone Lusi discussion thread

1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9

4625 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#1006347 15-Mar-2014 18:47

sdav:
Buzz Bumble: Get back to us when the weather forecasters get it EXACTLY correct every single time ... until then it's just a lot of guesswork based on scientific underpinnings, which is why most weather forecasts are very vague.

That could apply to so many industries, jobs...

What work do you do where you are correct every single time?

I wonder about that as well.. But I dont think we will get the answer

Brunzy

2016 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#1006348 15-Mar-2014 18:49

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/295296/boy-missing-beach-false-alarm

MikeB4

18435 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

#1006355 15-Mar-2014 18:59

Buzz Bumble: Get back to us when the weather forecasters get it EXACTLY correct every single time ... until then it's just a lot of guesswork based on scientific underpinnings, which is why most weather forecasts (like most other types of "prediction") are very vague.

Forecasting for a maritime nation at our latitude Discovery difficult, events like this especially so. These storms can either power up or power down in a very unpredictable manner.

As a person that over the years has been dependant on forecasting I have found the NZ forecasting very good.

Buzz Bumble

332 posts

Ultimate Geek
Inactive user

#1006366 15-Mar-2014 19:08

sdav: That could apply to so many industries, jobs...

"Many industries, jobs..." don't claim to be a science.

What work do you do where you are correct every single time?

I'll let you know ... when I claim that my work is a science ... which won't happen because it's not.

If the "exact" and "everytime" get your knickers in a knot, they how about getting a proper forecast right ANY time. Vague predicitions to cover their asses don't qualify.

MikeB4

18435 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

#1006370 15-Mar-2014 19:14

Buzz Bumble:

sdav: That could apply to so many industries, jobs...

"Many industries, jobs..." don't claim to be a science.

What work do you do where you are correct every single time?

I'll let you know ... when I claim that my work is a science ... which won't happen because it's not.

If the "exact" and "everytime" get your knickers in a knot, they how about getting a proper forecast right ANY time. Vague predicitions to cover their asses don't qualify.

Well Meteorology is a science combining several scientific disciplines

sdav

846 posts

Ultimate Geek

#1006374 15-Mar-2014 19:37

Buzz Bumble:

sdav: That could apply to so many industries, jobs...

"Many industries, jobs..." don't claim to be a science.

What work do you do where you are correct every single time?

I'll let you know ... when I claim that my work is a science ... which won't happen because it's not.

If the "exact" and "everytime" get your knickers in a knot, they how about getting a proper forecast right ANY time. Vague predicitions to cover their asses don't qualify.

lol the very word forecast means prediction or estimate! And forecasts I have found are pretty good.

sdav

846 posts

Ultimate Geek

#1006375 15-Mar-2014 19:39

They use scientific techniques to predict what the weather may do. It's not a hard concept to grasp. If you think it was blown out of proportion that is entirely in your own head for reading (and believing) all the media hype about it and not understanding weather systems.

Lenovo

Shop now for Lenovo laptops and other devices (affiliate link).

MaxLV

656 posts

Ultimate Geek

#1006475 15-Mar-2014 22:49

Buzz Bumble:

mattwnz: I don't think it has been overhyped by the forcasters, they are just stating the facts.

Forecasters are stating the possibility that their psuedo-scientific computer models have "predicted" ... and are usually wrong. (There was an item in the newspaper just this week about the supposed storm and that the computer models had "predicted" lots of differing outcomes.)

By "weather forecasters" most people tend to mean the celebrity presenters on TV, so they actually are part of the over-hyping media.

The wind and drizzle has picked up a bit again in Auckland. Maybe the other edge of the "storm".

You mean like their pseudo scientific computer models that predict AGW as a fact and that only the human species can save the planet from the imminent destruction of a 3 - 5 degree temperature rise?

Their computers told therm Cyclone Lusi was going to be a bad one, they told the news media who immediately ran their 'beat up' of the 'story'.

So far in Wellington, all we have is very light rain, (maximum 1.8mm/hr at my location) and no wind...

gzt

17001 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#1006489 15-Mar-2014 23:38

Imho the forecasting was sensible in the circumstances, and the forecasting provided the opportunity for risk minimisation. For exposed areas it was well worth preparing for the forecast gusts which did arrive. Remember also that forecasting becomes more accurate the closer to a point in time. The forecast earlier today for this evening was very accurate. Compare that to the forecast for this evening 3 days ago. Because trying to make prediction much further into the future.

Geektastic

17935 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#1006492 15-Mar-2014 23:42

Some minor rain and a bit of a breeze here!

sdav

846 posts

Ultimate Geek

#1006496 15-Mar-2014 23:57

MaxLV:
Buzz Bumble:

mattwnz: I don't think it has been overhyped by the forcasters, they are just stating the facts.

Forecasters are stating the possibility that their psuedo-scientific computer models have "predicted" ... and are usually wrong. (There was an item in the newspaper just this week about the supposed storm and that the computer models had "predicted" lots of differing outcomes.)

By "weather forecasters" most people tend to mean the celebrity presenters on TV, so they actually are part of the over-hyping media.

The wind and drizzle has picked up a bit again in Auckland. Maybe the other edge of the "storm".

You mean like their pseudo scientific computer models that predict AGW as a fact and that only the human species can save the planet from the imminent destruction of a 3 - 5 degree temperature rise?

Their computers told therm Cyclone Lusi was going to be a bad one, they told the news media who immediately ran their 'beat up' of the 'story'.

So far in Wellington, all we have is very light rain, (maximum 1.8mm/hr at my location) and no wind...

There is still a cyclone of the coast of NZ. Nothing has changed that. The effect is always hard to predict because these system depower close to land mass. Sometimes they don't.

insane

3224 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

#1006507 16-Mar-2014 00:38

Geektastic: Some minor rain and a bit of a breeze here!

Same. I'm in Albany and it wasn't such a bad day at all, only rained half of the day followed with some medium gusts of wind. Probably had 10 worse days last winter.

Sidestep

1013 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#1006583 16-Mar-2014 10:05

Here (45km North of Kaitaia, East coast) we got hit reasonably hard. The very slight, last minute western deviation of the cyclone saved us a lot more damage. The accurate prediction of the arrival of this weather - correct to the hour - allowed us to prepare. If we hadn't known almost a week ahead we wouldn't have thought to check out the main generator (auto start battery was flat) or the chainsaws (only one working & needed a service). Moved vehicles away from trees, tarped everything against the salt spray, cleaned all the downpipes and tank filters etc. None of this stuff would be necessary in the city, up here is very important.
Better to over predict than the opposite. Thank you weather forecasters!

Buzz Bumble

332 posts

Ultimate Geek
Inactive user

#1006593 16-Mar-2014 10:22

As usual and unsurprsingly, the over-hyped storm in a teacup has passed with little to no problems (that I've read or heard so far).

The media REALLY and seriously need to take a much tighter control of their reporting. Just like "The Boy Who Cried Wolf", the more they continue to over-hype things, the less people are going to bother believing them.

Sidestep

1013 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#1006599 16-Mar-2014 10:37

Of course if we believed what the MEDIA predicted we'd have retreated to the Bunker with a weeks supply of everything.. I personally just watch the actual weather forecast ;)

1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9