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nakedmolerat
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  #1013215 26-Mar-2014 15:12
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mattwnz: It is interesting that it is valued at 200 million. Really wonder how that has been calculated.


Apparently Mega has 7 million users with 20,000 new sign up daily

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Klipspringer
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  #1013216 26-Mar-2014 15:14
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nakedmolerat:
mattwnz: It is interesting that it is valued at 200 million. Really wonder how that has been calculated.


Apparently Mega has 7 million users with 20,000 new sign up daily


All under 18 :-p

mattwnz
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  #1013219 26-Mar-2014 15:17
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nakedmolerat:
mattwnz: It is interesting that it is valued at 200 million. Really wonder how that has been calculated.


Apparently Mega has 7 million users with 20,000 new sign up daily


But I imagine  most will be free accounts, so they aren't making anything from those users. Whats a free user worth, especially as there are lot of providers offering similar type of services, so people can easily switch, or have accounts with lots of different providers.



Buzz Bumble
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  #1013346 26-Mar-2014 18:45
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mattwnz: It is interesting that it is valued at 200 million. Really wonder how that has been calculated.


It's based on his weight in tonnes. ;-)

nathan
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  #1013356 26-Mar-2014 18:58
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nakedmolerat:
mattwnz: It is interesting that it is valued at 200 million. Really wonder how that has been calculated.


Apparently Mega has 7 million users with 20,000 new sign up daily


how many are paying?
how much are they paying?
what are the customer acquisition costs for those new customers?
what is the churn?
then you can work out what the company is worth

pump and dump

old3eyes
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  #1013382 26-Mar-2014 19:35
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Buzz Bumble: Yep, don't touch it with a bazillion-light-year long barge pole. Today's New Zealand Herald has multiple articles on this rubbish ... must be a slow news day. :-\

 

Must be.  3News screaming headlines tonite "Dotcom buys Mein Kampf copy signed by Hitler"




Regards,

Old3eyes


JimmyH
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  #1013384 26-Mar-2014 19:36
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1.  I would have to see a prospectus (with valuation information and forecasts).
2.  I would have to believe that prospectus.
3.  I would have to be comfortable with the regulatory/legal risks around the company.
4.  I would have to have sufficient spare cash to take a risky punt on a fairly speculative investment in a risky industry.

So I won't be buying - it fails all four of my investment criteria.



Jarno
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  #1013411 26-Mar-2014 20:56
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$30 per user seems to be a fairly universal rule of thumb for valuing online services. It doesn't appear to matter whether or not those users are currently generating any revenue. What does appear to be important is that those users are potentially monetizable. It's weird.

nathan
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  #1013414 26-Mar-2014 21:05
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In the case of Box, $9000 to acquire a user paying you back $30 a year (!)

mattwnz
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  #1013467 26-Mar-2014 22:11
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nathan: In the case of Box, $9000 to acquire a user paying you back $30 a year (!)

 

That would be based on the growth curves of the businesses user base, they would expect a huge amount of growth. But I can't see the same for a company providing a free service, that they are going to be able to monetise those free customers. Instead people will just move to another free service, as there is no stickability' to the service that hooks someone to it. That is the key, and why facebook has a large value, because there is no alternative at that sort of scale, and it is very difficult for a new entrant can enter the market. Plus all their information is on it. Although things can change eg Myspace. 
Trademe is similar, as there is no one even close to competing to their size in the NZ market, and only a company like ebay could probably take them on.

nathan
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  #1013490 26-Mar-2014 22:38
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mattwnz:
nathan: In the case of Box, $9000 to acquire a user paying you back $30 a year (!)

That would be based on the growth curves of the businesses user base, they would expect a huge amount of growth. But I can't see the same for a company providing a free service, that they are going to be able to monetise those free customers. Instead people will just move to another free service, as there is no stickability' to the service that hooks someone to it. That is the key, and why facebook has a large value, because there is no alternative at that sort of scale, and it is very difficult for a new entrant can enter the market. Plus all their information is on it. Although things can change eg Myspace. 
Trademe is similar, as there is no one even close to competing to their size in the NZ market, and only a company like ebay could probably take them on.


those figures are actuals from the Box prospectus

I know nothing about Megas back door NZX listing

Just the crazy speculative valuation of box

9,000 to get each gross customer addition and generate only $30 a month in cash. They need a new business model.

mattwnz
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  #1013513 26-Mar-2014 22:51
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nathan:
mattwnz:
nathan: In the case of Box, $9000 to acquire a user paying you back $30 a year (!)

That would be based on the growth curves of the businesses user base, they would expect a huge amount of growth. But I can't see the same for a company providing a free service, that they are going to be able to monetise those free customers. Instead people will just move to another free service, as there is no stickability' to the service that hooks someone to it. That is the key, and why facebook has a large value, because there is no alternative at that sort of scale, and it is very difficult for a new entrant can enter the market. Plus all their information is on it. Although things can change eg Myspace. 
Trademe is similar, as there is no one even close to competing to their size in the NZ market, and only a company like ebay could probably take them on.


those figures are actuals from the Box prospectus

I know nothing about Megas back door NZX listing

Just the crazy speculative valuation of box

9,000 to get each gross customer addition and generate only $30 a month in cash. They need a new business model.


This is an interesting analysis on how to value a tech company http://lancewiggs.com/2013/10/04/valuing-xero-in-1-hour/

nathan
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  #1013535 26-Mar-2014 23:19
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will you be buying shares in the IPO? ;)

not sure what part of my analysis is incorrect.  Not that I valued anything. 

Its clear they will soon burn through all their cash.

nathan
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  #1013541 26-Mar-2014 23:26
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"approximately 93% of our registered users are non-paying users"

"34,000 paying organizations"

"Sales and marketing expense also consists of datacenter and customer support costs related to providing our cloud-based services to our free users."

“Our business model focuses on maximizing the lifetime value of a customer relationship. We make significant investments in acquiring new customers..."

Sales and Marketing alone at Box is 138% of revenue. 

Buzz Bumble
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  #1013646 27-Mar-2014 09:16
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JimmyH:
1. I would have to see a prospectus (with valuation information and forecasts).
2. I would have to believe that prospectus.
3. I would have to be comfortable with the regulatory/legal risks around the company.
4. I would have to have sufficient spare cash to take a risky punt on a fairly speculative investment in a risky industry.

So I won't be buying - it fails all four of my investment criteria.


5. Should not be owned / run by the court jester or his family.

;-)

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