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  Reply # 1393038 23-Sep-2015 20:20
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gzt: I'm beginning to think the US opening is a mirage and what we are really doing in these negotiations is riding the coat tails and behind USA to open new Asian markets.


We already have FTA with China. 

US coattails not required....if you think free trade is a good thing.

Problem is....it isn't a good thing. Maybe for a few rich folk....but for everyone else their wages flatline, go down...or their job goes to China completely.

No win there for most people.  




____________________________________________________
I'm on a high fibre diet. 

 

High fibre diet


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  Reply # 1393147 23-Sep-2015 22:20
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joker97:
JimmyH:
itxtme:

Surely you can see the effect even a 1 year increase in patents will have on mortality rates and quality of living.  Not an unknown at all.



Yes, actually it is. Your point is that longer patents will keep prices higher for longer, and this will reduce access somewhat with an impact on mortality. Which is a fair and valid point. However, there is also a counter argument that longer patents will incentivise more investment in drugs as compaines will have a longer window to make money and recover their costs, which should hopefully lead to accelerated discovery and availability of new medicines - reducing mortality. As to how this will ultimately come out on balance, I don't know.


huh? you think that's how drug companies think?
no. if they can make you sell your kidney to heal your leg they will.


Of course they will, but that's irrelevant to the point, as is rhetoric elsewhere about their advertising spend compared to R&D. And yes, for the record, that is how I think drug companies behave - they make cold rational business decisions about when to invest, to maximise profit for their shareholders. And I would expect any business I invested in to do the same.

The point of Patents is to give those who create a product a window where no one else can sell the product, before others can clone their invention and prices fall. Developing a new drug isn't cheap, it can cost over $1 billion once all the development, testing and approvals are taken care of. And many drugs don't get to market after large sums have been spent. The drug companies will decide to invest in developing new drugs - based on how much they think it will cost, how likely the think they are to end up with an approved/marketable product, the likely size of the market, and how much they can sell the drug for. It's exactly the same type of analysis the likes of Microsoft, Intel, General Motors, Fonterra, Meridian or Nuplex do when they decide whether to invest in developing a new product or building a new plant.

If they have a longer period of exclusivity, they will have a greater opportunity to make money off a successful drug before the generics come in and drive the price down. This makes the logic of taking a punt on spending to develop a promising candidate better, increasing the likelihood that there will be higher R&D spend and a better flow of new and more effective drugs developed. It's not altruism, it's cold commercial analysis.

Whether this is worth it when balanced against paying higher prices for longer on drugs because of longer patents I don't personally know. But it needs to be taken into account.

 
 
 
 


gzt

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  Reply # 1393158 23-Sep-2015 22:50
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JimmyH: Developing a new drug isn't cheap, it can cost over $1 billion once all the development, testing and approvals are taken care of. And many drugs don't get to market after large sums have been spent.

The Make-Believe Billion: How drug companies exaggerate research costs to justify absurd profits.

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_customer/2011/03/the_makebelieve_billion.html

Many of the claims drug companies have made about r&d when under pressure by consumers are total bull. The oft repeated 1 billion claim chief among them.



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  Reply # 1393170 23-Sep-2015 23:05
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JimmyH:
joker97:
JimmyH:
itxtme:

Surely you can see the effect even a 1 year increase in patents will have on mortality rates and quality of living.  Not an unknown at all.



Yes, actually it is. Your point is that longer patents will keep prices higher for longer, and this will reduce access somewhat with an impact on mortality. Which is a fair and valid point. However, there is also a counter argument that longer patents will incentivise more investment in drugs as compaines will have a longer window to make money and recover their costs, which should hopefully lead to accelerated discovery and availability of new medicines - reducing mortality. As to how this will ultimately come out on balance, I don't know.


huh? you think that's how drug companies think?
no. if they can make you sell your kidney to heal your leg they will.


Of course they will, but that's irrelevant to the point, as is rhetoric elsewhere about their advertising spend compared to R&D. And yes, for the record, that is how I think drug companies behave - they make cold rational business decisions about when to invest, to maximise profit for their shareholders. And I would expect any business I invested in to do the same.

The point of Patents is to give those who create a product a window where no one else can sell the product, before others can clone their invention and prices fall. Developing a new drug isn't cheap, it can cost over $1 billion once all the development, testing and approvals are taken care of. And many drugs don't get to market after large sums have been spent. The drug companies will decide to invest in developing new drugs - based on how much they think it will cost, how likely the think they are to end up with an approved/marketable product, the likely size of the market, and how much they can sell the drug for. It's exactly the same type of analysis the likes of Microsoft, Intel, General Motors, Fonterra, Meridian or Nuplex do when they decide whether to invest in developing a new product or building a new plant.

If they have a longer period of exclusivity, they will have a greater opportunity to make money off a successful drug before the generics come in and drive the price down. This makes the logic of taking a punt on spending to develop a promising candidate better, increasing the likelihood that there will be higher R&D spend and a better flow of new and more effective drugs developed. It's not altruism, it's cold commercial analysis.

Whether this is worth it when balanced against paying higher prices for longer on drugs because of longer patents I don't personally know. But it needs to be taken into account.


There are arguments for and against patent extension for pharmaceuticals.  Before you get too carried away with the spin, please consider that the "for profit" model biases research toward the highest revenue earning prospect (ie ability for the sick to pay - not the needs of the sick), that the largest spender on pharma per capita by a long way is the USA - which manages to spend more than double that of more socialised systems yet deliver measurably poorer outcome, and also look at the growing incidence of scandals with big pharma.
I don't think comparison with patents on general manufactured goods is reasonable, nor do I think that any shift towards a US style system is desirable in any way.  We do better than they do in terms of public health - at a fraction of the cost.
 

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  Reply # 1395514 28-Sep-2015 09:32
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NZtechfreak:
MikeAqua: The thing about the anti TPP activists is they are the same folks who have opposed previous free trade deals.  It's the same old cranks, activist academics and dripping taps with a couple of doctors thrown in for good measure.

Past trade deals have all resulted in benefits to NZ exporters, with minimal (none that I can name) down sides.

The opposition won't even commit to they will secede from an agreement if elected. 


Rubbish. Throwaway rhetoric to try and dismiss the criticism out of hand. 

I think you should actually read the text and the expert commentary, some of which has come from groups such as the Law Society and others who haven't tended to get involved in giving feedback on trade deals.



I have, I'm not convinced. 

There is hysteria over every free trade deal.  The sky is always purported to be falling.  It never does.  Therefore most of the critics in my view have very little credibility - because their past predictions have been completely wrong.  The only decent review (from memory a BERL report) I have seen of the benefits of past FTAs puts them at about 1000% of what was predicted.

If I repeatedly see a person on television and in the print media making incorrect predictions, I disregard them. Especially when they are people who are politically opposed to free trade.

The law society is deserving of some respect but you have to think about its overall motives: Its membership profits from litigation and dispute.  If the Law Society were pro-TPP I would be worried.  It has circulated several opinion pieces  and seems on aggregate to be neutral with some concerns expressed about individual aspects.

The opposition won't even commit to overturning the FTA if they win the next election.  That speaks volumes.

I suspect it's an argument no-one will be proven right or wrong in; because I don't think it will get through the US congress.




Mike



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  Reply # 1395581 28-Sep-2015 10:27
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MikeAqua: 
The opposition won't even commit to overturning the FTA if they win the next election.  That speaks volumes.



Volumes about what?
I don't see how they could commit to overturning an agreement now - when they know as much about the details as we do.
The immediate problem isn't the outcome - it's the process.
In the event that the outcome was bad, then pulling out of the agreement couldn't just put things back the way they were before - we'd be stuffed, as we'd be flayed by retaliatory actions affecting trade and probably sued for billions.
After it's signed, then for the deal to be so bad that withdrawing from it was to even be considered - it would have to be very bad indeed "on balance".


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  Reply # 1396013 28-Sep-2015 19:14
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No, we wouldn't be sued for billions.

What we would do is lose the benefits of the deal. If we pull out and repudiate the treaty then we don't have to abide by its terms any more. The thing is, the quid pro quo is that neither do the other signatories to the treaty with regard to us, and a lot of NZ exporters and investors would find their market access swiftly collapsing as other countries gave in to political pressure from their lobby groups and were no longer bound (by treaty) to give us fair acces.

Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

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  Reply # 1400644 6-Oct-2015 07:37
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So it's a done deal.

I guess details to follow ...

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  Reply # 1400645 6-Oct-2015 07:40
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There aren't many details yet, but:

Early fears that the TPP would require New Zealand to dismantle its Pharmac drug-buying agency appear to be unfounded.

 

US Trade Representative Mike Froman made clear that while the US will keep its 12-year patent on biologics in place, the TPP will establish a five-year minimum patent period

Meanwhile,
"On dairy, some (products) will achieve tariff elimination, on others it has been too difficult," said Mr Groser.

Source

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  Reply # 1400654 6-Oct-2015 08:02
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I thought it had been established yesterday (after leaks came from Australia) that the US had settled on 8 years as the period for drugs? Australian media were reporting this as one of the key breakthroughs to the agreement being signed.


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  Reply # 1400660 6-Oct-2015 08:11
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That sort of thing is exactly why we need the actual text. It's apparently coming "soon".

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  Reply # 1400661 6-Oct-2015 08:15
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Why NZ think we can still compete and offer better competitive advantage than developing countries (read mexico / malaysia / peru / chile) with cheap labour?









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  Reply # 1400664 6-Oct-2015 08:16
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sbiddle: I thought it had been established yesterday (after leaks came from Australia) that the US had settled on 8 years as the period for drugs? Australian media were reporting this as one of the key breakthroughs to the agreement being signed.



Staying at 5 years apparently (US had wanted 12).
The agreement being based on the assumption that it would take years for the drugs to get regulatory approval in those countries wanting to approve generics.
If there's a devil there, it's going to be in the detail, ISDS perhaps.




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  Reply # 1400670 6-Oct-2015 08:23
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nakedmolerat: Why NZ think we can still compete and offer better competitive advantage than developing countries (read mexico / malaysia / peru / chile) with cheap labour?




That's a tough one.

Increased productivity maybe?

ExaMple. Every farmer i speak to dreads hiring locals. They don't want to work the yards, knows how to take umpteen breaks, never finishes any work, goes home dead on time.

They want to hire foreigners. Works harder than anyone. Never complains. Does everything asked of them. They will get the jobs done, very reliable.

So they hire immigrants.

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  Reply # 1400694 6-Oct-2015 08:32
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joker97: 

ExaMple. Every farmer i speak to dreads hiring locals. They don't want to work the yards, knows how to take umpteen breaks, never finishes any work, goes home dead on time.

They want to hire foreigners. Works harder than anyone. Never complains. Does everything asked of them. They will get the jobs done, very reliable.

So they hire immigrants.


Welfare is a double edged sword.

New immigrants will have no access to welfare and will theretofore appreciate a job. 

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