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BDFL - Memuneh
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  Reply # 1431050 19-Nov-2015 11:43
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This probably answers the question as to support / funding:

 


gzt

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  Reply # 1431225 19-Nov-2015 15:36
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It is no surprise the numbers are higher in relatively unstable places.

But you are wrong. The answer does not indicate support for Isis at all. In fact there are other surveys that specifically ask Isis support and the numbers are far far lower. Also note the never and rarely columns. Isis are essentially an Iraqi insurgent movement and it is likely they will sacrifice many other areas to protect their core territorial gains.

The purpose of the attack on Paris is to increase hate crime and discrimination pressure against Muslims and increase foreign fighter recruitment. The biggest danger in this regard is the state of France overreacting domestically.

There have been no ethnic or nationally based curfews or deportations and in that regard the state response has been measured so far. So Isis have already been denied victory in that regard, but the French must ensure the reaction of the state remains sensible.

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  Reply # 1431250 19-Nov-2015 16:39
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freitasm: And terrorists didn't even bother using encryption in their comms. Encryption is not a weapon.




Perhaps everyone here can see that but watch the world governments to outlaw it anyway.

I cant see JK retracting his incorrect statement about the use of encryption in France, 
infact he has actually done what many accused Snowden and Greenwald of,
he's literally told the terrorists how to evade detection.

Its a bit of a smoke screne, the NSA can get through #256 if they really want to but it makes me wonder why we changed the gcsb laws to spy on people who are not doing anything wrong or to enforce people doing something wrong to move towards encripted comms as a method of flagging them ?

Either way, it's getting hard to have any confidence in communicating in private with clients.


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  Reply # 1431261 19-Nov-2015 16:59
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turnin: 

I cant see JK retracting his incorrect statement about the use of encryption in France, 
infact he has actually done what many accused Snowden and Greenwald of,
he's literally told the terrorists how to evade detection.




I missed that. What's the source?





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  Reply # 1431276 19-Nov-2015 17:24
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I don't see that encryption would even be needed, provided they keep their messages deliberately vague and avoid certain words that would raise red flags.

It's in the Successful Terrorism 101 manual.

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  Reply # 1431300 19-Nov-2015 18:31
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Jan Schaumann (@jschauma) on twitter

"Terrorists use encryption to plot killing people with guns. We must ban encryption!"
"What about guns?"
"No point, they don't follow laws."

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  Reply # 1431308 19-Nov-2015 18:43
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DarthKermit: The French police fired 5000 rounds of ammo it's reported. The buildings must look like Swiss cheese now. I'd hate to be on the clean up crew! wink


And arrested 8 and killed 2. Hmm ..........

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  Reply # 1431309 19-Nov-2015 18:44
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Rikkitic:
turnin: 

I cant see JK retracting his incorrect statement about the use of encryption in France, 
infact he has actually done what many accused Snowden and Greenwald of,
he's literally told the terrorists how to evade detection.

 

 

 




I missed that. What's the source?



http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/74054295/distance-spy-network-means-nz-less-vulnerable-to-attack--john-key

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11546206

 

 

 

"I wonder whether the right characterisation isn't that they failed but that the terrorists are becoming more sophisticated and quite a lot of the communications they have are what, in the business, we would call dark.

 

"In other words, we can't actually monitor them."

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  Reply # 1431324 19-Nov-2015 19:01
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So they use Tor. D'oh. Thanks for the links.





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  Reply # 1431529 20-Nov-2015 09:06
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gzt: It is no surprise the numbers are higher in relatively unstable places.

But you are wrong. The answer does not indicate support for Isis at all. In fact there are other surveys that specifically ask Isis support and the numbers are far far lower. Also note the never and rarely columns. Isis are essentially an Iraqi insurgent movement and it is likely they will sacrifice many other areas to protect their core territorial gains.

The purpose of the attack on Paris is to increase hate crime and discrimination pressure against Muslims and increase foreign fighter recruitment. The biggest danger in this regard is the state of France overreacting domestically.

There have been no ethnic or nationally based curfews or deportations and in that regard the state response has been measured so far. So Isis have already been denied victory in that regard, but the French must ensure the reaction of the state remains sensible.


I don't share your apparent optimism when viewing those figures - the results are extremely alarming even for relatively stable places.

The hoped for answer to the question is surely 0% (that suicide bombings can often/sometimes be justified).
Of course if the question was to be about support for ISIS and their activity, support would be lower - there won't be support from shia, but look at the figure for Lebanon, and there's no such division between shia/sunni about the concept itself, so if the cause was different, then...
Yes - there's a correlation between political instability and support, but it's not very consistent - compare Tunisia and Turkey. 
And sure, support for ISIS will probably be low, but that's not really the point, there have been other causes and will be other causes in the future, the concept that such abomination is "often/sometimes justified" is embedded in to a significant minority in all those societies - it's an ongoing issue, wiping out ISIL won't solve the problem.

Of course I agree about the purpose of the attack and the need for great care in a response.  The response - so called "war on terror" since 2001 has been an abject failure when looking at figures for suicide bombing:




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  Reply # 1431534 20-Nov-2015 09:23
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Fred99:
gzt: It is no surprise the numbers are higher in relatively unstable places.

But you are wrong. The answer does not indicate support for Isis at all. In fact there are other surveys that specifically ask Isis support and the numbers are far far lower. Also note the never and rarely columns. Isis are essentially an Iraqi insurgent movement and it is likely they will sacrifice many other areas to protect their core territorial gains.

The purpose of the attack on Paris is to increase hate crime and discrimination pressure against Muslims and increase foreign fighter recruitment. The biggest danger in this regard is the state of France overreacting domestically.

There have been no ethnic or nationally based curfews or deportations and in that regard the state response has been measured so far. So Isis have already been denied victory in that regard, but the French must ensure the reaction of the state remains sensible.


I don't share your apparent optimism when viewing those figures.

The hoped for answer to the question is surely 0% (that suicide bombings can often/sometimes be justified).
Of course if the question was to be about support for ISIS and their activity, support would be lower - there won't be support from shia, but look at the figure for Lebanon, and there's no such division between shia/sunni about the concept itself, so if the cause was different, then...
Yes - there's a correlation between political instability and support, but it's not very consistent - compare Tunisia and Turkey. 
And sure, support for ISIS will probably be low, but that's not really the point, there have been other causes and will be other causes in the future, the concept that such abomination is "often/sometimes justified" is embedded in to a significant minority in all those societies - it's an ongoing issue, wiping out ISIL won't solve the problem.

Of course I agree about the purpose of the attack and the need for great care in a response.  The response - so called "war on terror" since 2001 has been an abject failure when looking at figures for suicide bombing:





So from the graph we can see worldwide there are fewer people killed by terrorists than are murdered in just the USA each year.

However what we have is effectively a death-cult.
They believe there will be "the last holy war" fought around Dabiq in Syria.
They have decided the best way to make this come true is to start the war by forcing the west to attack.

Unfortunately like all prophesies they are vague and can be interpreted to mean multiple things, and on hindsight you can always find an event which "proves" the prophesy is right.

So we could end up with 10,000 fights around there over the next 10,000 years, with each one claiming to be the "final battle" that will ride the world of the Evil west.

They are in effect, a death cult, and there is bugger all you can do about them.

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  Reply # 1431554 20-Nov-2015 09:42
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It is hard to know how to feel about this. I am glad the Paris cell has been disposed of and I certainly don't mourn the terrorist deaths, but I also don't see a good way out, other than the idealistic long-term plan I already suggested, and I doubt there will be sufficient support and patience for that. The only way I see to stop this kind of terrorism is to stop breeding terrorists, and that means major changes to society over multiple generations. 

In the meantime, laws will undoubtedly be passed throughout the world curtailing effective encryption, the surveillance society will become ubiquitous, and personal privacy will be something old people vaguely recall as a fond memory. Welcome to the world of Big Brother. If you thought it was bad before, you haven't seen anything yet. Security screening on NZ domestic flights is just the beginning. You can blow away all the terrorists you like, but as far as our way of life goes, they have already scored a major victory. I find that a very depressing thought.







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  Reply # 1431620 20-Nov-2015 10:58
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DarthKermit: I don't see that encryption would even be needed, provided they keep their messages deliberately vague and avoid certain words that would raise red flags.

It's in the Successful Terrorism 101 manual.


Let us not forget that encryption does not require a computer - something we often do forget in the modern world where the word encryption immediately conjures up 128 bit keys and so on.

If you and I agree on a cypher key - an obscure book or books, for example - then it is easy to encrypt messages so that each word becomes a series of numbers (page, line or vice versa). It matters not then whether the actual text of the message wrapper (e.g. email) is encrypted or not.

I suppose theoretically such a code can be broken by a huge computer checking the references against every known book (and every imprint and edition of every book in every language....!) but the chances of that happening are remoter than finding a McDonalds wrapper on Mars I would think.

Other simple methods include creating an online mail account and both parties having the password. Messages are then written in draft but never actually sent...

Or you could just use a pen and paper and send it as mail...or use small ads in the paper...etc etc etc





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  Reply # 1431656 20-Nov-2015 12:27
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The graph has really only two major contributors. The massive spike of 3000 for September 11 then the rest are the terrible toll on Iraq.

In the context of the previous discussion on attacks on civilians, the graph does not differentiate civilian and military. Some number of those deaths will be insurgent attacks on Iraq military rather than civilian for this graph.

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