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Topic # 188954 11-Dec-2015 08:55
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So, apparently, some study has predicted the death of the smartphone in the next 5 years.

Allegedly "consumers" believe that within 5 years smartphones will be obsolete and replaced by AI.

So, 5 years to invent an entirely new technology which doesn't exist yet, bring it to market, and completely overwhelm the market with said technology.

Seems unlikely to me....

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  Reply # 1448540 11-Dec-2015 09:00
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I'm still waiting for flying cars and trips to the moon



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  Reply # 1448544 11-Dec-2015 09:07
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johnr: I'm still waiting for flying cars and trips to the moon

What about hoverboards ?!?!?!?  And BTTF promised me self-drying clothes, too!

 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1448549 11-Dec-2015 09:14
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jamesrt:
johnr: I'm still waiting for flying cars and trips to the moon

What about hoverboards ?!?!?!?

We already have those...Kinda'.

It's very unlikely this will happen.  Smartphones will be around for quite a bit longer I'd imagine.





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  Reply # 1448550 11-Dec-2015 09:15
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Desktops were supposed to have been killed off ages ago, laptops were on the way out, tablets are supposed to be a dying market, seems fitting that smartphones should join the list too.




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  Reply # 1448552 11-Dec-2015 09:17
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When I was a wee lad at boarding school, we had a magazine in the library called Look & Learn.

I recall well a proposal in there for a lorry that could easily drive from the UK to the continent because the steering wheel, pedal box and instruments could slide from one side of the cab to the other.

Still have not seen that - and that would be a lot easier to do than hover boards or jet cars!





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  Reply # 1448553 11-Dec-2015 09:17
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This is a thinktank from the same company that didn't see smartphones coming and lost their share of the phone market almost completely.

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  Reply # 1448567 11-Dec-2015 09:28
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DravidDavid:
jamesrt:
johnr: I'm still waiting for flying cars and trips to the moon

What about hoverboards ?!?!?!?

We already have those...Kinda'.

It's very unlikely this will happen.  Smartphones will be around for quite a bit longer I'd imagine.


THEY HAVE WHEELS. WHY ARE THEY CALLED HOVERBOARDS WHEN THEY HAVE WHEELS.

God.

So much rage.

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  Reply # 1448572 11-Dec-2015 09:40
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BlueShift: This is a thinktank from the same company that didn't see smartphones coming and lost their share of the phone market almost completely.


They don't see it coming because it's marketing / psychology as much - or more - than technology driven.
Much easier to predict what should be technically achievable rather than to predict (or influence) what people will actually want enough to pay $$$ for.



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  Reply # 1448576 11-Dec-2015 09:46
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Geektastic: When I was a wee lad at boarding school, we had a magazine in the library called Look & Learn.

I recall well a proposal in there for a lorry that could easily drive from the UK to the continent because the steering wheel, pedal box and instruments could slide from one side of the cab to the other.

Still have not seen that - and that would be a lot easier to do than hover boards or jet cars!


That seems to have popped up occasionally over the years but never come to anything.
Why a car builder has to spend massive sums of money developing a separate Left/Right hand control car I dont really know.
With the electronic control of nearly everything in the car you would think the above would be a reality (and more economical to build). Would be great in the parts of the world where there is close proximity of Left/Right drive - Parts of Asia and Europe especially.




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  Reply # 1448582 11-Dec-2015 09:52
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"A smartphone in the hand, it's really not that practical. For example, not when one is driving a car or cooking. And there are many situations where display screens are not so good. Therefore, one in two think that smartphones will belong to the past within five years" says Ericsson ConsumerLab's Rebecka Cedering Ångström.


I've got to agree that a handheld/hand-controlled device isn't practical when driving or cooking. And that screens aren't good enough in bright sunlight (and too bright in movie theatres). But that doesn't mean the end of smartphones; just that some other human interface is needed (e.g. speech -- already used for car nav apps), and that screens need to be improved.

I think if you asked people (and maybe ConsumerLab did) whether current smartphones would be obsolete in 2021 (nitpick: that's 6 years), pretty much everyone would agree. Anyone at all here still using a 6 year old phone?

This is hardly a prediction of AI taking over... I wonder where the SMH got that idea? And in fact AI is pretty much irrelevant in this context.

My conclusion: Pre-Xmas column-filler & media beatup attempt hacked out by an ignorant and stupid journalist.


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  Reply # 1448596 11-Dec-2015 09:57
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Despite confidence that comes from seeing the past 5, 10, 15 or 20 years, I think we can not fully appreciate how fast something like, for example, ML will change the world in the next 5.

And it will change things in ways we do not expect.

Humans are just not equipped by evolution to do this.

Onward
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  Reply # 1448603 11-Dec-2015 10:10
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What ever replaces them will need to be water proof to at least 100m given the pending sea level rise and overall affects of climate change.




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  Reply # 1448607 11-Dec-2015 10:18
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Geektastic: When I was a wee lad at boarding school, we had a magazine in the library called Look & Learn.

I recall well a proposal in there for a lorry that could easily drive from the UK to the continent because the steering wheel, pedal box and instruments could slide from one side of the cab to the other.

Still have not seen that - and that would be a lot easier to do than hover boards or jet cars!


I remember seeing a car like that, well a prototype, on some discovery channel type show about a decade ago.  It was a hydrogen car with everything sell contained in the base of the car.  You could switch the body of the car.  So a SUV, sedan, van etc all had the same base just a different body dropped on top and you could swap them out.

The steering wheel could move from one side to the car to the other with the pedals being in the steering wheel.

Can't find it online, but I did see something like this.   The steering wheel was probably the least interesting thing about this car :)

SJB

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  Reply # 1448609 11-Dec-2015 10:22
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I predict that within the next 5 years someone in America will develop a semi automatic assault rifle with a phone built in to the butt and a camera on the barrel.

That way they can chat to their mates and stream live on the internet while they kill their Muslim neighbours because they parked their car a metre to close to said gunmans property.

And Trump will be starting his second term.

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  Reply # 1448611 11-Dec-2015 10:23
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wasabi2k:
DravidDavid:
jamesrt:
johnr: I'm still waiting for flying cars and trips to the moon

What about hoverboards ?!?!?!?

We already have those...Kinda'.

It's very unlikely this will happen.  Smartphones will be around for quite a bit longer I'd imagine.


THEY HAVE WHEELS. WHY ARE THEY CALLED HOVERBOARDS WHEN THEY HAVE WHEELS.

God.

So much rage.


I'm not talking about those cheap scooters.  I'm talking about an actual hoverboard, haha.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCLlsMzvPjQ





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