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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1451078 15-Dec-2015 19:31
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Geese:
tdgeek: Volumes dropped by a large amount, prices, not as much, but are down. I'd take this as the prices are still very high but are stalled due to being too high to afford. This was the cap. Demand is there but at these prices, nah, can't afford it.


Must be gutting to be a first home buyer struggling away for years to save up a 20% deposit, to nearly get there, and then overnight (October 1) be many tens of thousands short now it has increased to 30% deposit.


The deposit is still 20%, the 30% is only for investment properties. Also some banks still have a 10% deposit option available.

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  Reply # 1451238 15-Dec-2015 23:59
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nathan:
Geektastic:
nathan: that's a very interesting point.  No govt. is going to get re-elected by promising to remove equity from homeowners

its going to be interesting to see how all this ends up.  Its a bit sad that older generation will watch their kids/grand kids grow up over Skype because they had to leave NZ and move to a higher wage economy/cheaper housing


It happens in reverse. Why do you think people move here?!


Because NZ immigration policy allows them

You need immigration there in NZ to keep growth ticking over


That isn't why. That is how.

Skilled migrants move because of a number of things, some of which are

Cheaper housing
Lower taxes
High earning capacity for skills not commonly found here 
Less danger of terrorism

to name but 4. Remember many people have the skills and ability to move anywhere and work anywhere. If you win the passport lottery, you have huge choice - I have the right to live and work in over 30 countries because of mine.

I speak to my family over Skype too - I have not seen two of my brothers in person since 2008! It's not a big deal for me personally: at least one of them I would probably not have seen in person if he lived at the end of the road.

People move out of NZ and other people move in. It was ever thus. Likewise some people move to the other side of the world and make new lives and yes, that means they can't see their family and friends that often. If those things were more important to them, I imagine that they wouldn't go.





 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1451803 16-Dec-2015 18:32
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mattwnz:
nathan: that's a very interesting point.  No govt. is going to get re-elected by promising to remove equity from homeowners

its going to be interesting to see how all this ends up.  Its a bit sad that older generation will watch their kids/grand kids grow up over Skype because they had to leave NZ and move to a higher wage economy/cheaper housing


The government should have never allowed the Bubble to get to the size it is. They were far too slow to react.


I find your faith in government a touching. It's not just about whether they should have done something, you are assuming that there is actually something sensible that they could have done. Once a bubble has a head of steam like the Auckland market seems to have, it's not easy to see how it can be stopped gracefully.

Short of tightening prudential lending rules on banks even further, or hiking interest rates back into double digits, there's not a lot they could have done in the short to medium term. There are longer term approaches to change the supply/demand balance by changing the RMA to facilitate more construction etc, but that will probably take a decade or more to have a big impact.

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Uber Geek
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  Reply # 1452159 17-Dec-2015 10:30
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I find lack of belief that the government could or should do something about it rather touching - as if Adam Smith's "invisible hand" was at work and that what's happened has been solely the result of "free market" / economic liberal policies.  It's far from the truth - government intervenes and micro/macro manages in so many areas and ways, tax policy, immigration policy, regional development (or lack thereof), welfare payment / rent subsidies, how kiwisaver may or may not be used for property deposits, these all impact on house prices.  RB setting the OCR is based on achieving inflation targets, but house price inflation is excluded from the basket.  When it tumbles as I expect it will, then it's very naive to think that past governments didn't allow what has happened to happen, with knowledge of the risks.  The short-term perceived-wealth quick fix shot in the arm boost to the local economy from allowing property price inflation to run rampant has been the politically expedient choice.

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  Reply # 1454044 20-Dec-2015 21:23
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mattwnz:
Linuxluver:
wsnz: After the 87 crash I remember my father and a friend driving around Remuera, Epson etc. looking at all the for sale/mortgagee auctions. Houses once worth a whooping $100K were selling for less than half that. If you were cashed up - but most weren't - then that was a prime time to purchase property. Many doubt we'll see a massive fall in prices, but anything can happen.


We haven't had a crash like '87 as it lead to most people avoiding the scam that is the NZ stock exchange. Pump and ump is the rule of the day for most listings that haven't been around for a while...and the ones that have been around for a while tend to be a handful of local monopolies.  


Are you saying that is the case back in the 80's or now?


There isn't much of interest on the NZ stock exchange. Virtually everything larger than a corner dairy that isn't a former SOE is foreign owned and they list on stock exchanges overseas. 

Seriously....what is there on the NZSX that would allow a local investor to have a diversified portfolio? 

Next to nothing. Kiwi business people have been destroying value like crazy for 40 years. There was a very good article on this around the time the government was selling off 49% of our strategic energy assets. The list of Kiwi companies that have disappeared and are now worth nothing or a fraction of their former value is long...and the losses are in the billions.







____________________________________________________
I'm on a high fibre diet. 

 

High fibre diet


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