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  Reply # 1640097 25-Sep-2016 09:39
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http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/84626279/Professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-US-presidential-outcomes-correctly-says-Donald-Trump-will-likely-beat-Hillary-Clinton

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting read.

 

He always predicts the winner, and his system shows its Trump. Actually, its not Trump, its the Republicans. Although he does admit, Trumps outlandish ways may see him lose despite the odds are well in the Republicans favour

 

I guess it comes down to how many Americans who would have voted Republican, will now vote Democrat (Unlikely to be many) or will not vote?

 

if Clinton is seen as same ol, uncharismatic, same question applies. Maybe this anomaly question will occur on both sides and cancel each other out, leaving this guys prediction more valid?

 

Maybe the Americans will see Trump as not having much power, given the US system, and vote Republican, because he cannot single handedly bring in his many stupid ideas. And that he will just be the voice, but controlled by the GOP

 

It may well happen, his predictions are based on many many elections, and its really the American psyche he is looking at.


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  Reply # 1640100 25-Sep-2016 09:49
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Sideface


 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1640127 25-Sep-2016 10:38
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 I do wonder if (hope) that professor turns out to be like the octopus etc claimed to be able to predict world cup victories etc - until by chance they're wrong.

 

Getting 40 years of election predictions right sounds impressive, but there aren't so many 50:50 bets when many of them were foregone conclusions.  The Bush:Gore election wasn't - so in "knowing" that he must have had extra-sensory perception of the minds of the US Supreme Court.

 

Of course he's just trying to make some $$$ selling his book.  He's clearly old-school republican - look at his ludicrous young man hair - on old man head,  and choice of ties.


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  Reply # 1640128 25-Sep-2016 10:42
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There is a very long list of well known Republican figures publicly saying they will vote Clinton.

At the election the Democratic Party is likely to use the shadow of Trump to motivate Democratic voters to the poll. Turnout was high for Obama and it is likely a similar turnout can be achieved purely on an anti-trump basis.

Respect to the professor but his system may need to include a new checkbox for something or other.

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  Reply # 1640130 25-Sep-2016 10:44
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Clinton is an abysmal candidate.





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  Reply # 1640148 25-Sep-2016 11:08
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darylblake: Clinton is an abysmal candidate.

Most American presidential candidates are abysmal. That's how the system works! ; ).

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  Reply # 1640162 25-Sep-2016 11:25
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Fred99:

 

 I do wonder if (hope) that professor turns out to be like the octopus etc claimed to be able to predict world cup victories etc - until by chance they're wrong.

 

Getting 40 years of election predictions right sounds impressive, but there aren't so many 50:50 bets when many of them were foregone conclusions.  <snip>

 

 

"Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, revealed in an interview this week who he thinks will win in November, and why 2016 was the most difficult election to predict yet."





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  Reply # 1640285 25-Sep-2016 17:00
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Sideface:

 

Fred99:

 

 I do wonder if (hope) that professor turns out to be like the octopus etc claimed to be able to predict world cup victories etc - until by chance they're wrong.

 

Getting 40 years of election predictions right sounds impressive, but there aren't so many 50:50 bets when many of them were foregone conclusions.  <snip>

 

 

"Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, revealed in an interview this week who he thinks will win in November, and why 2016 was the most difficult election to predict yet."

 

 

 

 

Does that mean the lauded professor is taking a punt that if he's right, his reputation for greatness will soar, while giving himself an out if he's wrong?

 

Professor or not - he seems like a silly old man with a bad hairdo making a guess and trying to "influence" things to me.


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  Reply # 1640287 25-Sep-2016 17:04
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Trump has issued a warning that "Clinton is going to rig the presidential debate by using facts", saying "it's a disgrace".

 

He also warned that unless CNN, which is hosting the debate, promises to forbid the use of facts, he might pull out of Monday’s contest. "I'm only going to debate if I’m treated fairly, and facts don’t treat me fairly."

 

Source


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  Reply # 1640291 25-Sep-2016 17:32
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So he plans to debate using lies eh ... How unTrump!

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  Reply # 1640310 25-Sep-2016 18:31
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Fred99:

 

 I do wonder if (hope) that professor turns out to be like the octopus etc claimed to be able to predict world cup victories etc - until by chance they're wrong.  <snip>

 

 

It must be true. frown

 

The Professor was featured on tonight's Channel 1 News





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  Reply # 1640337 25-Sep-2016 20:02
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Fred99:

 

Trump has issued a warning that "Clinton is going to rig the presidential debate by using facts",

 

 

 

 

 

rig ... by using facts

 

 

 

 

 

facts

 

 

 

 

 

 

...I have no words.





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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


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  Reply # 1640344 25-Sep-2016 20:22
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Fred99:

 

Sideface:

 

Fred99:

 

 I do wonder if (hope) that professor turns out to be like the octopus etc claimed to be able to predict world cup victories etc - until by chance they're wrong.

 

Getting 40 years of election predictions right sounds impressive, but there aren't so many 50:50 bets when many of them were foregone conclusions.  <snip>

 

 

"Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, revealed in an interview this week who he thinks will win in November, and why 2016 was the most difficult election to predict yet."

 

 

 

 

Does that mean the lauded professor is taking a punt that if he's right, his reputation for greatness will soar, while giving himself an out if he's wrong?

 

Professor or not - he seems like a silly old man with a bad hairdo making a guess and trying to "influence" things to me.

 

 

???

 

His metrics work. Given Trump is an idiot, outside the norm, he's admitted thats a change. Its not about the voters, its about the American psyche, and he seems to have nailed that 


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  Reply # 1640346 25-Sep-2016 20:26
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Fred99:

 

Trump has issued a warning that "Clinton is going to rig the presidential debate by using facts", saying "it's a disgrace".

 

He also warned that unless CNN, which is hosting the debate, promises to forbid the use of facts, he might pull out of Monday’s contest. "I'm only going to debate if I’m treated fairly, and facts don’t treat me fairly."

 

Source

 

 

 

 

I agree.I hate facts. Facts are the disdain of society. The truth should really be outlawed. I prefer swept back hairdos and fake tan. Wow. We are the most intelligent lifeforms that has emerged from Planet Earth???  ;-)


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