IN or OUT? All on in the UK for the next 10 weeks.

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Reply # 1559806 26-May-2016 09:17

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My prediction is they will leave and be better off for it.

Short term pain, long term gain.

The EU is undemocratic and structure is fundamentally flawed.

The fact that Bremain supporters are campaigning on a bunch of negative things instead of positive reasons for staying says it all.

Fred99

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Reply # 1559815 26-May-2016 09:34

My prediction is that they'll stay - because that's what the polls are saying quite strongly now.

As for determining in hindsight whether on balance, they'd have been better or worse off deciding either way, then that's something which will be argued about endlessly in future - yet practically impossible to prove as we won't have access to information from the other fork in divergent parallel universes.

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Reply # 1559842 26-May-2016 09:56

Fred99:

My prediction is that they'll stay - because that's what the polls are saying quite strongly now.

As for determining in hindsight whether on balance, they'd have been better or worse off deciding either way, then that's something which will be argued about endlessly in future - yet practically impossible to prove as we won't have access to information from the other fork in divergent parallel universes.

I would say " that's what the polls are saying quite strongly now." 6 points between with 13% undecided is not strong, it falls into the too close to call camp.

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Fred99

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Reply # 1559864 26-May-2016 10:30

MikeB4:

Fred99:

My prediction is that they'll stay - because that's what the polls are saying quite strongly now.

As for determining in hindsight whether on balance, they'd have been better or worse off deciding either way, then that's something which will be argued about endlessly in future - yet practically impossible to prove as we won't have access to information from the other fork in divergent parallel universes.

I would say " that's what the polls are saying quite strongly now." 6 points between with 13% undecided is not strong, it falls into the too close to call camp.

True. I should have said my "guess".

"Purdah" rules now apply, but that can't/won't muzzle brexit campaigners. "Something" could also happen, some serious incident which impacts on public opinion, and I guess that the possibilities there are that any such "something" will probably favour brexit.

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Reply # 1559908 26-May-2016 10:40

MikeB4: @Geektastic after many weeks of campaigning in the UK what is your gut feeling as to what way the vote will go. Many of my family in the UK are very unsure but believe the stay vote will prevail. Your feelings?

My feeling is the 'remains' will win. They seem to have the momentum that the 'leaves' don't have at the moment.

If the 'leaves' lose maybe they should do what the EU does if it loses a referendum - insist that they keep having referendums until they get the answer they want.

It's possible of course that the EU could fall apart in the not too distant future even if the UK votes to stay. There are several countries where right or even ultra right wing parties are gaining in popularity. If any of those actually got into power it could be the beginning of the end.

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Reply # 1559917 26-May-2016 10:45

Fred99:

MikeB4:

Fred99:

My prediction is that they'll stay - because that's what the polls are saying quite strongly now.

As for determining in hindsight whether on balance, they'd have been better or worse off deciding either way, then that's something which will be argued about endlessly in future - yet practically impossible to prove as we won't have access to information from the other fork in divergent parallel universes.

I would say " that's what the polls are saying quite strongly now." 6 points between with 13% undecided is not strong, it falls into the too close to call camp.

True. I should have said my "guess".

"Purdah" rules now apply, but that can't/won't muzzle brexit campaigners. "Something" could also happen, some serious incident which impacts on public opinion, and I guess that the possibilities there are that any such "something" will probably favour brexit.

It's an interesting time that's for sure.

I wonder how referendum on such matters like TPPA in NZ would go and if it should be decided thus? but that is a topic for another thread.

Mike
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MikeB4

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Reply # 1559919 26-May-2016 10:48

SJB:

MikeB4: @Geektastic after many weeks of campaigning in the UK what is your gut feeling as to what way the vote will go. Many of my family in the UK are very unsure but believe the stay vote will prevail. Your feelings?

My feeling is the 'remains' will win. They seem to have the momentum that the 'leaves' don't have at the moment.

If the 'leaves' lose maybe they should do what the EU does if it loses a referendum - insist that they keep having referendums until they get the answer they want.

It's possible of course that the EU could fall apart in the not too distant future even if the UK votes to stay. There are several countries where right or even ultra right wing parties are gaining in popularity. If any of those actually got into power it could be the beginning of the end.

EU falling apart, something that has crossed my small amount of grey matter a few times. Historically a united Europe has been a pipe dream that some say is a pipe nightmare.

Mike
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Reply # 1559955 26-May-2016 11:24

Fred99:

My prediction is that they'll stay - because that's what the polls are saying quite strongly now.

After last year's surprise election vote, you have to wonder about the polls - especially when they are still quite close. I am however detecting a wavering attitude from some of my family as the "Project Fear" campaign starts to have the desired effect. As my father said last night on Skype

"We should never have joined the EU - the damage has been done. Brexit cannot change the past damage. At best, it can only slow the decay - but with a price perceived by many as too expensive and offering no real short term solution".

"What about longer term gains"?

"Who thinks long term nowadays? People have been conditioned to only think about the now. How do you think the EU have managed to become so dominant? How many people are prepared to think and commit to 10 - 20 year cycles? The desired outcome of this referendum was probably discussed (and planned) years ago".

Yep, I am seeing the face of defeat starting to come through already.

MikeB4

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Reply # 1559958 26-May-2016 11:28

DaveB:

Fred99:

My prediction is that they'll stay - because that's what the polls are saying quite strongly now.

After last year's surprise election vote, you have to wonder about the polls - especially when they are still quite close. I am however detecting a wavering attitude from some of my family as the "Project Fear" campaign starts to have the desired effect. As my father said last night on Skype

"We should never have joined the EU - the damage has been done. Brexit cannot change the past damage. At best, it can only slow the decay - but with a price perceived by many as too expensive and offering no real short term solution".

"What about longer term gains"?

"Who thinks long term nowadays? People have been conditioned to only think about the now. How do you think the EU have managed to become so dominant? How many people are prepared to think and commit to 10 - 20 year cycles? The desired outcome of this referendum was probably discussed (and planned) years ago".

Yep, I am seeing the face of defeat starting to come through already.

Yep, when you have the politicians looking only as far as the next election why would the populous do anything different.

Mike
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ScuL

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Reply # 1559993 26-May-2016 12:20

nathan:

The fact that Bremain supporters are campaigning on a bunch of negative things instead of positive reasons for staying says it all.

* Possibility for British citizens to work and live abroad and obtain property with little or no taxation (go ask the millions of UK Citizens in France and Spain)
* Equal and open market supporting export of British produce (vegetables, fruits, meat, dairy) into the continent
* A foundation for international business to establish corporate presence within the EU whilst maintaining the benefit of doing so in an English speaking country (Ireland being the only alternative)
* Telecommunications laws forcing open networks and fair treatment of users in terms of roaming charges (soon all of the EU will be a single zone with no roaming charges whatsoever)
* Subsidies for developing regions in the UK (Midlands, North of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland & Wales)
* Legislation on primary and secondary industries protecting British fisheries & the North Sea oil platforms
* Modernisation of the banking system and reduction of fees for international payments and other monetary traffic
* Cheap flights by low cost airlines such as Ryanair/Easyjet (these are heavily subsidised by various European regions/cities)
* The EU is one of the strongest economic markets in the world with 500 million inhabitants and is responsible for 24% of the global GDP

There's more here:

http://econ.economicshelp.org/2007/03/benefits-of-european-union.html

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Reply # 1560076 26-May-2016 14:34

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ScuL:
nathan:

The fact that Bremain supporters are campaigning on a bunch of negative things instead of positive reasons for staying says it all.

* Possibility for British citizens to work and live abroad and obtain property with little or no taxation (go ask the millions of UK Citizens in France and Spain)
* Equal and open market supporting export of British produce (vegetables, fruits, meat, dairy) into the continent
* A foundation for international business to establish corporate presence within the EU whilst maintaining the benefit of doing so in an English speaking country (Ireland being the only alternative)
* Telecommunications laws forcing open networks and fair treatment of users in terms of roaming charges (soon all of the EU will be a single zone with no roaming charges whatsoever)
* Subsidies for developing regions in the UK (Midlands, North of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland & Wales)
* Legislation on primary and secondary industries protecting British fisheries & the North Sea oil platforms
* Modernisation of the banking system and reduction of fees for international payments and other monetary traffic
* Cheap flights by low cost airlines such as Ryanair/Easyjet (these are heavily subsidised by various European regions/cities)
* The EU is one of the strongest economic markets in the world with 500 million inhabitants and is responsible for 24% of the global GDP

There's more here:

http://econ.economicshelp.org/2007/03/benefits-of-european-union.html

What prevents the UK from signing a free trade agreement with the EU? The USA is trying to do it with the TTIP.

Geektastic

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Reply # 1560331 26-May-2016 22:54

nathan:

My prediction is they will leave and be better off for it.

Short term pain, long term gain.

The EU is undemocratic and structure is fundamentally flawed.

The fact that Bremain supporters are campaigning on a bunch of negative things instead of positive reasons for staying says it all.

I'd love you to be correct but overcoming the inertia for no change will be hard - and the government is using taxpayer's funds to ensure that it stays that way.

Geektastic

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Reply # 1560345 26-May-2016 23:01

MikeB4: @Geektastic after many weeks of campaigning in the UK what is your gut feeling as to what way the vote will go. Many of my family in the UK are very unsure but believe the stay vote will prevail. Your feelings?

I'll be honest and say I think it will be close, but they will stay in.

In many ways the worst possible result is the fact that it will be close whichever way it goes, as it means that a huge percentage of the population will be unhappy, which is not a recipe for tranquility.

I think Cameron's so-called "renegotiation" was as much use as a chocolate fireguard and he got nothing substantive that can't be got out of later if the Commissariat in Brussels decide to forget they ever said it. I just think that most people will go with the status quo, quelled into submission by the Project Fear because all they really care about is what time the pubs are open, whether you can get cheap fags in France and whether their 2 weeks in Benidorm with Madge & Mel Harvey will still be nice and cheap.

Cynical? Yup.

SJB

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Reply # 1560455 27-May-2016 09:26

Geektastic:

I think Cameron's so-called "renegotiation" was as much use as a chocolate fireguard and he got nothing substantive that can't be got out of later if the Commissariat in Brussels decide to forget they ever said it.

I thought the topic of what Cameron got or rather didn't get at the 'renegotiation' had quietly been swept under the carpet, swamped by the financial fear propaganda.

DaveB

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Reply # 1560491 27-May-2016 09:45

Geektastic:

MikeB4: @Geektastic after many weeks of campaigning in the UK what is your gut feeling as to what way the vote will go. Many of my family in the UK are very unsure but believe the stay vote will prevail. Your feelings?

I'll be honest and say I think it will be close, but they will stay in.

In many ways the worst possible result is the fact that it will be close whichever way it goes, as it means that a huge percentage of the population will be unhappy, which is not a recipe for tranquility.

I think Cameron's so-called "renegotiation" was as much use as a chocolate fireguard and he got nothing substantive that can't be got out of later if the Commissariat in Brussels decide to forget they ever said it. I just think that most people will go with the status quo, quelled into submission by the Project Fear because all they really care about is what time the pubs are open, whether you can get cheap fags in France and whether their 2 weeks in Benidorm with Madge & Mel Harvey will still be nice and cheap.

Cynical? Yup.

One possible danger with a vote to stay in, will likely be further racial disharmony. The immigration issue has already become a racial/cultural/religious issue in Britain and I fear it will become worse and more prevalent for many years if they stay in the EU.

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