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10613 posts

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  #1541947 26-Apr-2016 08:56
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There might be some dubious methods being used now, despite council being extremely pedantic about design at the consent stage, then multiple inspections during the build.
When I re-clad our place, I "DIY" the window flashing systems which was a very tricky time-consuming job. I worked alongside my builder and cladding contractor, I'd worked out with designer and suppliers how to get the flashing system design implemented and the order in which things had to be done.  I needed to use a router to cut grooves around all frames so a barb on a flashing system could be pressed in place.  Once fitted, that meant that the flashing could move >10mm but still maintain a seal.  This was one of the "leaky homes" issues - they'd bung some RTV in gaps and pray - but god wasn't listening.

 

The subbies doing the work though - I'm working alongside them and talking to them for days on end while I'm doing that work - they're asking me why I'm bothering.  They tell me that they don't cut the grooves and fit the flashing properly because it's too hard to do - instead they cut the barbs off and glue the flashings to the frame.  The challenge to them wasn't to do the job properly but to pass building inspection - and in their words the building inspectors "would never notice" that the flashing was glued in place.  Probably true - but doing it that way it will surely fail.  


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  #1541952 26-Apr-2016 09:10
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Geektastic:

 

 

 

I've never really found an explanation as to why the councils who certified the building work are not liable? Or the government who drew up (I assume) the regulations that applied?

 

 

They can be held liable, but it is not an easy process. Nor a cheap one, even through the Weathertight Homes Resolution Service, which was set up by the Government to to provide low cost & speedy resolution to leaky home claims. In our experience, it is definitely neither low cost or speedy.

 

It is also designed so that claimants can appear before the tribunal without legal representation. But because the Council brings their army of lawyers to proceedings, it would be a very unwise move to do so.

 

 

The lack of qualified Chartered Surveyors to carry out building surveys, who you can sue if they get it wrong, is a worry.

 

 

Yep, that's one of the lessons we learnt too. Most building inspections aren't actually worth the paper they're written on. We explicitly asked for moisture ingress testing be done as part of ours, and it all came back clean.

 

I asked the building surveyor that inspected our house as part of the WHRS process, how home purchasers should get prospective purchases checked. He said that purchasers really need a qualified building surveyor to do the inspection, but you'd be hard pressed finding one that would be prepared to do so. They're also very expensive, and to be totally thorough would need to be invasive as well. I can't see vendors allowing potential purchasers to cut and drill prior to purchase. 


 
 
 
 


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  #1542000 26-Apr-2016 10:09
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A pertinent article in today's Herald.

 

So, potentially, the answer to the question posed by this thread could be National. Time will tell if a) they do it and b) it works.





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  #1542132 26-Apr-2016 12:00
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Depends very much on how you define "works".  If the objective was to restore home affordability to historical averages of 3-5X household income then I don't think any politician would want it to work. Self-interest rules - pollies neither want to commit political suicide by causing a housing market crash, and so many of them own multiple rental properties themselves, it must influence how they see the situation.

 

I'd expect not very much to happen at all - like the LVR and Auckland-specific lending rules.  That actually made it better for the "investor" and harder for the potential first home-owner by taking first home buyers out of the market who can't stump up with the deposit, increasing demand for rentals by those who do have the cash/equity.  I do not accept the claim that "this was unexpected".  It seemed pretty obvious to me - it's not credible to me that the RBNZ - full of statisticians and economists - couldn't see that one coming.

 

So will they do "it"? - no they won't.  Will "it" work - no because they don't want it to work.


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  #1542149 26-Apr-2016 12:30
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Fred99:

 

Depends very much on how you define "works".  If the objective was to restore home affordability to historical averages of 3-5X household income then I don't think any politician would want it to work. Self-interest rules - pollies neither want to commit political suicide by causing a housing market crash, and so many of them own multiple rental properties themselves, it must influence how they see the situation.

 

I'd expect not very much to happen at all - like the LVR and Auckland-specific lending rules.  That actually made it better for the "investor" and harder for the potential first home-owner by taking first home buyers out of the market who can't stump up with the deposit, increasing demand for rentals by those who do have the cash/equity.  I do not accept the claim that "this was unexpected".  It seemed pretty obvious to me - it's not credible to me that the RBNZ - full of statisticians and economists - couldn't see that one coming.

 

So will they do "it"? - no they won't.  Will "it" work - no because they don't want it to work.

 

 

 

 

You could of course argue from the opposite end and say that houses are not too expensive - the people trying to buy them and failing are not wealthy enough...






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  #1542161 26-Apr-2016 13:05
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littleheaven:

 

A pertinent article in today's Herald.

 

So, potentially, the answer to the question posed by this thread could be National. Time will tell if a) they do it and b) it works.

 

 

Last to the party, with the least. 

 

Not aspirational voting. 





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  #1542298 26-Apr-2016 16:05
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Fred99:

 

Depends very much on how you define "works".  If the objective was to restore home affordability to historical averages of 3-5X household income then I don't think any politician would want it to work. Self-interest rules - pollies neither want to commit political suicide by causing a housing market crash, and so many of them own multiple rental properties themselves, it must influence how they see the situation.

 

I'd expect not very much to happen at all - like the LVR and Auckland-specific lending rules.  That actually made it better for the "investor" and harder for the potential first home-owner by taking first home buyers out of the market who can't stump up with the deposit, increasing demand for rentals by those who do have the cash/equity.  I do not accept the claim that "this was unexpected".  It seemed pretty obvious to me - it's not credible to me that the RBNZ - full of statisticians and economists - couldn't see that one coming.

 

So will they do "it"? - no they won't.  Will "it" work - no because they don't want it to work.

 

 

There is a difference between policy that causes a price crash vs. policy that arrests price growth and allows income to start to catch up.





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  #1542328 26-Apr-2016 16:38
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ajobbins:

 

Fred99:

 

Depends very much on how you define "works".  If the objective was to restore home affordability to historical averages of 3-5X household income then I don't think any politician would want it to work. Self-interest rules - pollies neither want to commit political suicide by causing a housing market crash, and so many of them own multiple rental properties themselves, it must influence how they see the situation.

 

I'd expect not very much to happen at all - like the LVR and Auckland-specific lending rules.  That actually made it better for the "investor" and harder for the potential first home-owner by taking first home buyers out of the market who can't stump up with the deposit, increasing demand for rentals by those who do have the cash/equity.  I do not accept the claim that "this was unexpected".  It seemed pretty obvious to me - it's not credible to me that the RBNZ - full of statisticians and economists - couldn't see that one coming.

 

So will they do "it"? - no they won't.  Will "it" work - no because they don't want it to work.

 

 

There is a difference between policy that causes a price crash vs. policy that arrests price growth and allows income to start to catch up.

 

 

If they arrest price growth - it's going to crash.  There's no background inflation and no wage growth at the moment - so "catch up" isn't going to happen the way it did in the past - unless we have high inflation (and corresponding high interest rates) which will cause a crash anyway.  Even at the unprecedented low rates at the moment, many homeowners would be going backwards or staying static in terms of reducing debt over time, the only thing holding it together is a belief that property prices will continue to outstrip inflation and wage rises, increasing their % equity.

 

I believe Bernard Hickey referred to the situation as being stuck between a rock and more rocks.  The time to act was years ago - when interest rates needed to drop for stimulus after the GFC, some action should have been taken to direct investment away from housing.  


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  #1542473 26-Apr-2016 22:23
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The principle solution remains "Build More Houses".

 

Once you have more houses than people wanting them, the price falls.

 

Personally I would be examining why the NZ building trade is so painfully slow, why building materials cost so much and making it easier for land owners to free up their land for development.

 

Taxes, Stamp Duty etc is just dog whistle politicking that is intended to look like something is being done rather than a policy that will actually result in improvement.






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  #1542480 26-Apr-2016 23:09
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TeaLeaf:

I think its pretty obvious the Government is maintaining this bubble.



Really? I don't think it's at all obvious that this is the case. Why, and how exactly, do you think that the Government is acting to maintain the bubble?

MikeB4:

The long term solution in my unlearned opinion is we need to reverse the 70's and 80's disaster of centralisation of commerce and industry. We created this mess when we decided that every head office and major business needed to be in Auckland.



Except that "we" didn't decide anything. Businesses individually decided that they wanted to be in Auckland. It wasn't any sort of collective decision.


sir1963:

What would help there is a REAL user pays system. So instead of industries averaging prices so that their products costs the same in Auckland as it does in Invercargill it should reflect real costs.

So Power for example should cost more in Auckland than it would cost down south.



Power pricing already works that way at the wholesale level. Nodal pricing reflects the cost of generation and transmission of power to different grid points.

sir1963:

Foreign investment should ONLY be allowed if it creates NEW jobs. Buying an existing business is NOT investment, limit foreign owner ship to 49%, and if they want to have 33% then they need to expand the existing business by 50% (so they own 1/3). Land can only be leased for 25 years by foreign people/companies, they can not own it.

NZ companies can NOT buy land in China, so why let them buy up the farm here ?



1.  What would that achieve?

 


2.  Why do you consider it would have any impact on the problem (soaring Auckland residential prices) being discussed here?

SJB:

Firstly stamp duty (say 10-15% of the purchase price) that the purchaser pays. A nice little earner for the government and first time home buyers could be exempt.

Secondly restricting loans to 2-3 times income. Again first time home buyers exempt.



1.  The evidence from overseas is that stamp duty won't do anything to halt price rises. But will make it difficult for people who need to sell up and move - say because their employer relocates or they lose their job.

 


2.  Restricting loans to a proportion of income by government fiat won't work. At best they could compel NZ banks, and then you would just see people going round the banks and borrowing through lawyers etc, like they did when Muldoon tried silly lending rules. Plus, even if you made it work, you would just advantage foreign buyers - as they could jus borrowing from their offshore bank, and not caught by your arbitrary rule.


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  #1542486 27-Apr-2016 00:45

Geektastic:

 

The principle solution remains "Build More Houses".

 

Once you have more houses than people wanting them, the price falls.

 

Personally I would be examining why the NZ building trade is so painfully slow, why building materials cost so much and making it easier for land owners to free up their land for development.

 

Taxes, Stamp Duty etc is just dog whistle politicking that is intended to look like something is being done rather than a policy that will actually result in improvement.

 

 

 

 

I agree.

 

The building industry is costly, inefficient and monopolistic. I guess the third point implies the first two.

 

Does the Government have any plans to address that?

 

Probably not.

 

In fact they have really supported that situation in the Christchurch rebuild.

 

Freeing up land in Auckland would definitely be useful. The Auckland Council usually gets the blame for this. The Government were also going to supply land.

 

How is that working out?

 

There are things that can be changed and those that can't.

 

Things that can't be changed are that people need houses. That applies to people who have lived in Auckland and new immigrants.

 

But, the Government has been seriously resistant to examining and dealing with foreign speculation.

 

That is something they can affect and they should have done something about a long time ago.

 

Things like this are complex and non-linear.

 

A few sensible changes could make a large effect on the outcome.


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  #1542618 27-Apr-2016 10:22
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What would be nice is to have some investment opportunities available in NZ that compete with housing for security and growth. 





Mike

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  #1542629 27-Apr-2016 10:46
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MikeAqua:

 

What would be nice is to have some investment opportunities available in NZ that compete with housing for security and growth. 

 

 

I agree. Giving retirement saving the same tax free status it has in the USA and Europe would be a start.






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  #1542632 27-Apr-2016 10:54
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Given there is no easy fix, i'm fascinated in the end-game scenarios. 

 

Is NZ heading towards a fractured society? Where the population self segregates based on wealth and school choices for children. The intelligent and rich will generally prosper, and we'll end up a 2 class society -- rich and poor. 

 

There may be great unrest between the havesand have nots.  The govt will naturally try to protect the status quo but it could get quite ugly.  Maybe in two or three generations time when the consequences of what is happening today will have structurally altered society. 

 

 

 

Dystopian future, cool.


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  #1542651 27-Apr-2016 11:10
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surfisup1000:

 

Given there is no easy fix, i'm fascinated in the end-game scenarios. 

 

Is NZ heading towards a fractured society? Where the population self segregates based on wealth and school choices for children. The intelligent and rich will generally prosper, and we'll end up a 2 class society -- rich and poor. 

 

There may be great unrest between the havesand have nots.  The govt will naturally try to protect the status quo but it could get quite ugly.  Maybe in two or three generations time when the consequences of what is happening today will have structurally altered society. 

 

 

 

Dystopian future, cool.

 

 

 

 

In what way would this be different from just about any other country on earth?






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