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mattwnz
16824 posts

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  #1580804 27-Jun-2016 00:14
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networkn:

 

What I don't get is that other than the immigration issue they really benefit no way unless I am mistaken. They would have been better to identify that as a key thing and approached brussels about some way to limit immigration through the EU. Or is that not possible? I would imagine they would have been able to use exiting the EU as a big stick in negotiations. 

 

I believe that the EU is stronger than the UK and the EU intends to make Britan sorry for it's lack of forethought and vision. 

 

 

 

 

 

The thing about the EU is that it is a huge bureaucracy. So it would be a huge and difficult process to get an exemption for immigration, possibly even impossible. I think it is a true lesson of what happens when you make such a decision political. It is also a lesson of what happens when they lose touch with voters. The PM recommending people vote against Brexit, would have  just make people who are against the PM and the government, vote for it. 


JimmyH
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  #1580805 27-Jun-2016 00:21
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I suspect sanity will prevail, and The EU and the UK will eventually do a sensible relatively amicable deal.

 

It's not in the EU's interest to play too hard-ball with the UK. The UK is a big economy (the fifth largest in the world), and is a hugely important market for many EU countries (eg Ireland) and industries (eg the German Auto makers). There are big and influential constituencies in the EU that would be very averse to a situation where the EU shuts out the UK, and the UK shuts out the EU in return. Coupled with the the fact that the UK financial services industry is an important means of financing investment and trade efficiently. The dislocation from coming down too hard on the UK in a fit of pique would likely be enough to plunge the already fragile EU economies back into recession.

 

No sane EU politician (and at a minimum Germany, Sweden, Holland, Lithuania, Denmark and Finland have relatively sane governments - France and Greece, not so much) can ignore that.

 

In the short term the UK will take an economic hit. In the longer-run they may do better, especially once they are free of the worst aspects of the crazy regulation from Brussels. If they can get out of the ruinous Common Agricultural Policy, and use 10 billion plus pounds a year (net) that they contribute to the EU budget on some good infrastructure spending, then that will be a big plus.


 
 
 
 


networkn
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  #1580806 27-Jun-2016 00:26
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tdgeek:

 

networkn:

 

What I don't get is that other than the immigration issue they really benefit no way unless I am mistaken. They would have been better to identify that as a key thing and approached brussels about some way to limit immigration through the EU. Or is that not possible? I would imagine they would have been able to use exiting the EU as a big stick in negotiations. 

 

I believe that the EU is stronger than the UK and the EU intends to make Britan sorry for it's lack of forethought and vision. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I gather from my visitor today that the crowding in the UK is bad. 65 million in  country a bit smaller than NZ. His real world experience is that everything you do is too many people, and thats aside form the health service and infrastructure not keeping up, and the wanderers going onto benefits. While immigration is but one topic, and there are others, its perhaps a huge topic for them. Less so for the well off who don't have to live in that crowded environment. The more I read, the more I see its UK living in two ways. As the UK, where they have lost some control over their destiny, and as part of one big country, EU, where asking for immigration rules is perhaps a no go, as in many ways they are provinces of the EU. .I agree with GK, it should have remained as a free trade region, and not a Utopia. You cant manage all that and keep everyone happy, or vaguely satisfied. 

 

 

Yeah I can't claim any expertise on the possibility of negotiating border controls within the EU. If it's not possible and it's as bad as it sounds, maybe this was the only way. Seems extreme though, I'd have thought Brussels would rather than implemented some form of exemption plan rather than lose the UK from the EU.


tdgeek
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  #1580808 27-Jun-2016 00:33
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JimmyH:

 

I suspect sanity will prevail, and The EU and the UK will eventually do a sensible relatively amicable deal.

 

It's not in the EU's interest to play too hard-ball with the UK. The UK is a big economy (the fifth largest in the world), and is a hugely important market for many EU countries (eg Ireland) and industries (eg the German Auto makers). There are big and influential constituencies in the EU that would be very averse to a situation where the EU shuts out the UK, and the UK shuts out the EU in return. Coupled with the the fact that the UK financial services industry is an important means of financing investment and trade efficiently. The dislocation from coming down too hard on the UK in a fit of pique would likely be enough to plunge the already fragile EU economies back into recession.

 

No sane EU politician (and at a minimum Germany, Sweden, Holland, Lithuania, Denmark and Finland have relatively sane governments - France and Greece, not so much) can ignore that.

 

In the short term the UK will take an economic hit. In the longer-run they may do better, especially once they are free of the worst aspects of the crazy regulation from Brussels. If they can get out of the ruinous Common Agricultural Policy, and use 10 billion plus pounds a year (net) that they contribute to the EU budget on some good infrastructure spending, then that will be a big plus.

 

 

 

 

I agree. They need each other, despite the EU posturing a please get out soon. Perhaps negotiations post leave, will allow a solid amount of trade and cooperation, but rid the UK of having to comply with various rules. They may also be happy to comply with some rules if they promote ease for UK and EU citizens and don't impact the UK. Drivers licences as one small example. OTOH that may allow other EU members to say "we want that too now" Who knows. Perhaps the EU may become more conservative and be mainly a free trade and convenience region rather than 28 countries being run by two Govts, their own and Brussels.


alexx
700 posts

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  #1580809 27-Jun-2016 00:39
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Not good to see this happening.

'No more Polish vermin': Police investigating after laminated cards reading 'leave the EU go home scum' are posted through front doors

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3659842/No-Polish-vermin-Police-investigating-laminated-cards-reading-leave-EU-home-scum-posted-doors.html

 


Perhaps a good time to refer to freitasm’s earlier reminder before commenting further.





#include <standard.disclaimer>


tdgeek
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  #1580810 27-Jun-2016 00:43
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networkn:

 

tdgeek:

 

networkn:

 

What I don't get is that other than the immigration issue they really benefit no way unless I am mistaken. They would have been better to identify that as a key thing and approached brussels about some way to limit immigration through the EU. Or is that not possible? I would imagine they would have been able to use exiting the EU as a big stick in negotiations. 

 

I believe that the EU is stronger than the UK and the EU intends to make Britan sorry for it's lack of forethought and vision. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I gather from my visitor today that the crowding in the UK is bad. 65 million in  country a bit smaller than NZ. His real world experience is that everything you do is too many people, and thats aside form the health service and infrastructure not keeping up, and the wanderers going onto benefits. While immigration is but one topic, and there are others, its perhaps a huge topic for them. Less so for the well off who don't have to live in that crowded environment. The more I read, the more I see its UK living in two ways. As the UK, where they have lost some control over their destiny, and as part of one big country, EU, where asking for immigration rules is perhaps a no go, as in many ways they are provinces of the EU. .I agree with GK, it should have remained as a free trade region, and not a Utopia. You cant manage all that and keep everyone happy, or vaguely satisfied. 

 

 

Yeah I can't claim any expertise on the possibility of negotiating border controls within the EU. If it's not possible and it's as bad as it sounds, maybe this was the only way. Seems extreme though, I'd have thought Brussels would rather than implemented some form of exemption plan rather than lose the UK from the EU.

 

 

Yep. Ive read  a few pro and con articles, but I gather the EU is run as one union, everything is common, so maybe hard to add conveniences to one country and expect others to follow the anyone can come in, work, and get benefits. Its clear that having this Union keeps virtually everything is common and run as one country, but it isn't one country. Each country has its own economic challenges, culture, and issues. You cant have vacuum cleaners unless they comply with a certain power rating, visitor said that today. Umm, well, that's a tad OTT IMO. Saw that on pro site tonight, it reminded me. At a UK airport you cant hop into the UK Passport queue, as its against the rules to favour any one country, so everyone in the same lines. Maybe thats why its gone too far, its in reality like another joint Govt running your own country. 


DaveB
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  #1580811 27-Jun-2016 00:52
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I am absolutely glued to Sky News UK at the moment. 7 Labour shadow cabinet ministers resigned in the past couple of hours after Corbyn scaked Hillary Ben at midnight their time!
Nicola Sturgeon announcing that she believes that Scotland can veto the referendum for some legal reason or other and rumours that there are no clearly defined exit strategies in place by either side.

 
 
 
 


mattwnz
16824 posts

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  #1580812 27-Jun-2016 01:08
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DaveB: I am absolutely glued to Sky News UK at the moment. 7 Labour shadow cabinet ministers resigned in the past couple of hours after Corbyn scaked Hillary Ben at midnight their time!
Nicola Sturgeon announcing that she believes that Scotland can veto the referendum for some legal reason or other and rumours that there are no clearly defined exit strategies in place by either side.

 

 

 

I makes you wonder if there maybe some form of civil unrest occurring. Perhaps we will see the youth rioting about it, as many they seem to feel that the outer generations have screwed them on this. 


DaveB
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  #1580814 27-Jun-2016 01:19
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The civil unrest has been occurring for quite some time. This is about complete failure of new age politicians. I'm waiting for the americans to get involved now because that WILL be the next step.

DaveB
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  #1580815 27-Jun-2016 01:22
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Oh by the way. Did you notice that you can get on that latest protest and cast your vote of protest without any formality. From here? Big fail

roobarb
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  #1580820 27-Jun-2016 03:22
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What a shambles, not in the sense: "Timmy, your room is a shambles, please tidy it" but "The first day of the Battle of the Somme was a shambles" as in the original sense of a bloody butchers' market.

 

What a complete bunch of tossers across the entire board;

 

Nigel Farage, an offensive bigot, who has been like that all his life and apparently proud of it, and quite happy to pay the price of the economy to satisfy his ego.

 

Boris Johnson, who specialises in being the clown and whose preference is for photo opportunities involving drinking a pint. You always could and always would be able to drink as many pints as you like and drive as many miles as you like. A man with an empty head but an opinion on everything, he was undecided whether to leave or remain until Emma Thompson pointed out that it sometimes rains in England, that tipped the balance, evidently weather is controlled by Brussels in his imaginary toy-town.

 

David Cameron, who with a solution to an internal party struggle was quite happy to throw the country under a bus.

 

Michael Gove, who distrusts advice from any organisation which has an acronym, presumably including UKIP who were quite prepared for a recession in order to be bigots. Perhaps he only sought advice from The Monster Raving Loony Party, purely on the basis that they don't have a set of initials. It turns out that all those organisations with acronyms were right on the money. Rather than being rational and reasoned, turned out you were full of it.

 

Jeremy Corbyn, who was too precious to join a unified Remain campaign based on the fact he would have to share a platform with people from another party who happened to agree with him. Petty party politics and misplaced pride over the country's future, great priorities there.

 

The old, whose dementia made them imagine of a time that never was, and wanted to return to never-neverland. You may well die before the country recovers, enjoy what is left of your savings.

 

The protest voters, who didn't realise there wasn't a box on the ballot form marked "Protest Only - Please ignore, it's just so I can say I voted when I go down the pub".

 

Decimation of the currency, two trillion off the stock market, who would have known? Only everybody except Michael Gove who just put his fingers in his ears while singing la-la-la.

 

The losers: the young, who did imagine a modern integrated world and could be both proud of being British and European. Scotland and London who both overwhelmingly wanted to stay with Europe. Perhaps Scotland could become truly independent and remain with the EU, and London should become separate city state.\

 

The leave campaign was based on ignorance, xenaphobia and lies. The 350 million a week to the NHS will never happen, the EU cost was just over half that, instead of any more money to the NHS, it will be austerity all the way. If you want the common market you will need to accept free movement of labour, except that you won't have a seat at the table to make any rules.

 

The remain campaign was based on fear. Perhaps it was justified.


eracode
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  #1580822 27-Jun-2016 04:11
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@roobarb: The losers: the young, who did imagine a modern integrated world and could be both proud of being British and European.

 

... but of whom only about 1/3 could be bothered to go out and vote in the referendum. And then they feel hard done by.





Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.


tdgeek
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  #1580836 27-Jun-2016 07:11
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roobarb: Decimation of the currency, two trillion off the stock market, who would have known? Only everybody except Michael Gove who just put his fingers in his ears while singing la-la-la.   The losers: the young, who did imagine a modern integrated world and could be both proud of being British and European. Scotland and London who both overwhelmingly wanted to stay with Europe. Perhaps Scotland could become truly independent and remain with the EU, and London should become separate city state..

 

That seems very much on the table according to this mornings news. Could Scotland remove itself from the UK in time? I assume the EU would be accommodating should there by a timeframe issue? The Scotland leave UK vote failed 45/55 and staying in the EU was a reason to remain with the UK.


Fred99
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  #1580837 27-Jun-2016 07:17
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DaveB: 
Nicola Sturgeon announcing that she believes that Scotland can veto the referendum for some legal reason or other and rumours that there are no clearly defined exit strategies in place by either side.

 

Apparently consent is needed from the Scottish (and N Ireland and Welsh) parliaments to enable legislation for the UK to leave the EU.  The Scottish parliament has been given a very clear mandate to remain in the EU, thus to block "brexit".

 

There's another issue too if that didn't happen.  If Scotland holds another referendum to leave the UK (highly likely and the result that they'll decide to leave the UK is almost certain now), then Scotland will remain in the EU.

 

If that happens, then with free-travel between EU nations and Scotland, the remains of the UK will have to erect a border control wall between England and Scotland.

 

But we need to focus on the important issues.  NZ jumped the gun with our flag referendum.  When Scotland leaves the UK - NZ will have to change it's flag anyway.

 

 


tdgeek
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  #1580839 27-Jun-2016 07:21
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Fred99:

 

DaveB: 
Nicola Sturgeon announcing that she believes that Scotland can veto the referendum for some legal reason or other and rumours that there are no clearly defined exit strategies in place by either side.

 

Apparently consent is needed from the Scottish (and N Ireland and Welsh) parliaments to enable legislation for the UK to leave the EU.  The Scottish parliament has been given a very clear mandate to remain in the EU, thus to block "brexit".

 

 

Might that be an easy out?  Put the change through Parliament, it fails, UK stays in the EU. Sound like a great and likely option to me. 


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