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gzt

gzt
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  #1579567 24-Jun-2016 14:25
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Mr Key must have been sorely tempted to reactivate his forex trading account recentlly ; ).

Fred99
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  #1579573 24-Jun-2016 14:35
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darylblake:

 

Big spikes in the currency. NZ Dollar up. Markets are predicting an exit.

 

But looking at the pre-lim its so close. 50.1 to 49.9. Nothing in it so far. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The result isn't going to be that close.  It's already climbed to 51.2 : 48.8 since you posted that and more England results are coming in, and the swing to Brexit is steadily increasing.

 

The Pound is being hammered.  


 
 
 
 


MikeB4
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  #1579574 24-Jun-2016 14:37
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I think the Pound will rebound.

MikeB4
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  #1579576 24-Jun-2016 14:43
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This vote could trigger a bigger problem for the Pound. That is, a Government melt down. Cameron will go and a general election is not inconceivable

Fred99
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  #1579577 24-Jun-2016 14:44
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MikeB4: I think the Pound will rebound.

 

 

 

I know from spending a few years as a commodity trader which involved trading currency futures,  that whatever I thought, I'd be wrong 50% of the time.

 

As I type, the Pound has slipped almost 8% against the USD so far today.  That is historic.


jmh

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  #1579578 24-Jun-2016 14:45
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I'm trading the pound on a dummy account and getting hammered.  Thank goodness it's not real money.  Two forex sites crashed - back up now though.  Lot of heat in the market.  I think the pound will go up eventually but whether that's before my account blows up remains to be seen.


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  #1579579 24-Jun-2016 14:48
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Fred99:

MikeB4: I think the Pound will rebound.


 


I know from spending a few years as a commodity trader which involved trading currency futures,  that whatever I thought, I'd be wrong 50% of the time.


As I type, the Pound has slipped almost 8% against the USD so far today.  That is historic.



Yep that is significant for the most stable currency on the planet

 
 
 
 


MikeB4
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  #1579580 24-Jun-2016 14:48
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It is fascinating watching this significant historical event unfold.

MikeB4
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  #1579584 24-Jun-2016 14:55
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A question I have is will a Brexit (and that is looking likely ) precipitate a move by other EU members to vote to leave?
And will the EU do the Brexit with professional dignity or be nitwit and have a tantrum and try to change the outcome. I don't think Brussels will do this well

SJB

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  #1579586 24-Jun-2016 15:01
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MikeB4: A question I have is will a Brexit (and that is looking likely ) precipitate a move by other EU members to vote to leave?
And will the EU do the Brexit with professional dignity or be nitwit and have a tantrum and try to change the outcome. I don't think Brussels will do this well

 

As I've posted before I'm a brexiter but IMO the best result would be a complete overhaul of the EU and the direction it is heading in with Britain playing a full part. And the single currency either needs scrapping or a functional redesign.

 

There is nothing wrong with the concept of a European wide trading bloc (which is what I thought I was voting for all those years ago). There is a lot wrong with the current setup.


Geektastic

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  #1579588 24-Jun-2016 15:03
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I think that a lot of the opinion poll error comes from the fact that this is the first time in a generation or two that the one question that 99% of British people want a say on is actually being asked, unlike a General or Local election.

 

 

 

Thus more people than usual are voting and may not give the PM the answer he wants....






SJB

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  #1579589 24-Jun-2016 15:04
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I never though a referendum half a world away could be this exciting.


Fred99
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  #1579591 24-Jun-2016 15:04
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It might well be an overreaction, I don't pretend to know.  From a global perspective though, say the pound falls 7.5% and the FTSE futures indicate UK shares are going to be down 7.5% on opening.  Those two (7.5% fall in currency plus 7.5% fall in share prices denominated in that currency) get added together - ie if you owned shares in a UK Company, the market is saying at the moment that those shares are worth 15% less than they were yesterday.  That is a very large change indeed - about a USD 500 billion hit.  It's not limited to the UK though, the US market futures have also dropped back well into grim territory, DJIA index currently primed to open with a > 500 point collapse.  Will that happen?  I don't know.

 

 

 

GBP actually down 8.7% vs the USD as I type this.


Geektastic

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  #1579593 24-Jun-2016 15:05
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SJB:

 

I never though a referendum half a world away could be this exciting.

 

 

 

 

Truly. I was up until 0130hrs reading commentary and then awake in the dark at 0630 again!






jmh

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  #1579594 24-Jun-2016 15:05
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MikeB4: A question I have is will a Brexit (and that is looking likely ) precipitate a move by other EU members to vote to leave?
And will the EU do the Brexit with professional dignity or be nitwit and have a tantrum and try to change the outcome. I don't think Brussels will do this well

 

I personally think that other countries will manoeuvre to leave - whether they do will depend on how Brussels reacts.  I think the general feeling is that EU bureaucrats have overstepped the mark with austerity hitting ordinary people, e.g. Greece.  Most are fine with a trading role, not a governance role.


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