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networkn
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  #1579686 24-Jun-2016 17:06
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Didn't Cameron come out and say a few days/weeks ago, that unless the margin was significant he would block it? 

 

I can't really understand how a 3% winning margin could be grounds for what is potentially about to occur? I would have thought something as major as this should require 65% (or say 2/3 in favour) or default to stay.

 

It's a non binding referndum anyways right?


networkn
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  #1579687 24-Jun-2016 17:08
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I can't understand how pro exitors are able to take their "leader" seriously now. He came out a few minutes after polls closed and admitted defeat, then accused the PM of rigging the election, turns out he was wrong. What a fool.

 

 


 
 
 
 


MikeB4
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  #1579688 24-Jun-2016 17:09
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networkn:

 

Didn't Cameron come out and say a few days/weeks ago, that unless the margin was significant he would block it? 

 

I can't really understand how a 3% winning margin could be grounds for what is potentially about to occur? I would have thought something as major as this should require 65% (or say 2/3 in favour) or default to stay.

 

It's a non binding referndum anyways right?

 

 

 

 

He would be monumentally stupid to do that, but its Cameron we are talking about. I don't think it will be his decision, he will be making a Cameronexit from number 10 


networkn
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  #1579690 24-Jun-2016 17:12
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MikeB4:

 

networkn:

 

Didn't Cameron come out and say a few days/weeks ago, that unless the margin was significant he would block it? 

 

I can't really understand how a 3% winning margin could be grounds for what is potentially about to occur? I would have thought something as major as this should require 65% (or say 2/3 in favour) or default to stay.

 

It's a non binding referndum anyways right?

 

 

 

 

He would be monumentally stupid to do that, but its Cameron we are talking about. I don't think it will be his decision, he will be making a Cameronexit from number 10 

 

 

 

 

Why? 3% is what most people would consider "within the margin of error", and it shows about half the country want to stay and half want to go, but the cost is mind boggling to go.

 

 

 

Even if I was pro exit, I'd have serious doubts about whether it was such a good idea, given it's so close.


Fred99
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  #1579692 24-Jun-2016 17:14
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Geektastic:

 

Fred99:

 

Geektastic:

 

MikeB4: I think the Pound will rebound.

 

 

 

Of course it will. It's been a massively desirable currency for a very long time. These wobbles will soon dissipate.

 

 

 

 

Better hope so - because it isn't just the GBP being rattled.  The USD has fallen 5% against the JPY, (that's coming to about a 14% drop for the GBP against the yen).

 

That's also very messy as Japan's central bank has negative interest rates, not much they can do to drop the yen.

 

Now why would Japan care about the UK referendum?  Yet  they clearly do, as the Nikkei index has collapsed by about 8% today.  Japan probably cares, as this vote signals the possibility or probability that the EU will fail.

 

Much less than what's happened today sparked the GFC, and unfortunately the world is in a far worse position to deal with the aftermath if this isn't a "temporary blip".

 

 

 

 

There are things like Japanese car factories (Honda and Nissan for sure - maybe others since I left) in the UK so I guess they's have an interest, as well as financial investments in the FTSE etc.

 

 

 

 

No it's not that.

 

We'll see how the UK copes with the reality that world finance markets have quantified the loss in value to the country as about 20%.


DaveB
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  #1579693 24-Jun-2016 17:15
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Geektastic:

 

SJB:

 

Farage must be one of the happiest people to have ever made themselves redundant.

 

 

 

 

If ever a man deserved a peerage...!

 

 

Put him on the front of the Pound Note with Lizzie!


MikeB4
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  #1579695 24-Jun-2016 17:20
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The Pound needed to come down a bit. The U.K. Exporters will be doing a lot better. So silver lining always exist.

 
 
 
 


Linuxluver
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  #1579696 24-Jun-2016 17:22
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MikeB4:

 

networkn:

 

Didn't Cameron come out and say a few days/weeks ago, that unless the margin was significant he would block it? 

 

I can't really understand how a 3% winning margin could be grounds for what is potentially about to occur? I would have thought something as major as this should require 65% (or say 2/3 in favour) or default to stay.

 

It's a non binding referndum anyways right?

 

 

 

 

He would be monumentally stupid to do that, but its Cameron we are talking about. I don't think it will be his decision, he will be making a Cameronexit from number 10 

 

 

Calling an election now would make sense anyway. He campaigned to Remain...and (so far) 51.5% have voted to Leave. He either ignores the result - not a big enough margin - or he implements it.......wtf, he OPPOSED it.......or he calls an election because he lacks popular support for his own policy to remain (probably the best way out). 

 

Then.....UKIP and Tories split the right vote....Labour wins. Labour never wanted a Brexit. The Tories would also campaign against a Brexit.....so no party likely to form a government would support Brexit. Scotland stays (for now) and Northern Ireland don't start agitating to join Ireland. 

 

 





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eracode
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  #1579699 24-Jun-2016 17:27
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networkn:

 

Didn't Cameron come out and say a few days/weeks ago, that unless the margin was significant he would block it? 

 

I can't really understand how a 3% winning margin could be grounds for what is potentially about to occur? I would have thought something as major as this should require 65% (or say 2/3 in favour) or default to stay.

 

It's a non binding referndum anyways right?

 

 

He did say that and it is non-binding - but it would be 'monumentally stupid' as mikeB4 says. This is all incredibly fascinating but would be even more interesting if Cameron tried that.





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Linuxluver
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  #1579701 24-Jun-2016 17:28
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networkn:

 

 

 

Why? 3% is what most people would consider "within the margin of error", and it shows about half the country want to stay and half want to go, but the cost is mind boggling to go.

 

Even if I was pro exit, I'd have serious doubts about whether it was such a good idea, given it's so close.

 

 

I'll agree. 

 

But then we have to ask why the referendum was a 50,1% referendum. Maybe the answer is that's because it's indicative and non-binding. If it was legally binding they might have set the threshold closer to something like consensus (60%+). That would have made sense. 

 

But there is nothing new about conservatives just not thinking things through. This (and the invasion of Iraq, and...and ...and ...) is a good example. 

 

 





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Fred99
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  #1579702 24-Jun-2016 17:30
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MikeB4: The Pound needed to come down a bit. The U.K. Exporters will be doing a lot better. So silver lining always exist.

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure that the UK was under warning that they'd lose AAA credit rating if they leave the EU.

 

I doubt the UK "exporters" would do better - they're really not an export based trading economy the way NZ is.


JWR

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  #1579703 24-Jun-2016 17:30

networkn:

 

MikeB4:

 

networkn:

 

Didn't Cameron come out and say a few days/weeks ago, that unless the margin was significant he would block it? 

 

I can't really understand how a 3% winning margin could be grounds for what is potentially about to occur? I would have thought something as major as this should require 65% (or say 2/3 in favour) or default to stay.

 

It's a non binding referndum anyways right?

 

 

 

 

He would be monumentally stupid to do that, but its Cameron we are talking about. I don't think it will be his decision, he will be making a Cameronexit from number 10 

 

 

 

 

Why? 3% is what most people would consider "within the margin of error", and it shows about half the country want to stay and half want to go, but the cost is mind boggling to go.

 

 

 

Even if I was pro exit, I'd have serious doubts about whether it was such a good idea, given it's so close.

 

 

 

 

There is no margin of error in an election since you can count the votes exactly.


SJB

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  #1579705 24-Jun-2016 17:32
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Any idea that the result will be ignored by Cameron is just wishful thinking. They're out.

 

Anyway the result just corrects a minor mistake that was made 40 odd years ago.

 

 


Fred99
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  #1579707 24-Jun-2016 17:34
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SJB:

 

Any idea that the result will be ignored by Cameron is just wishful thinking. They're out.

 

Anyway the result just corrects a minor mistake that was made 40 odd years ago.

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's right - when Britain was making the Austin Allegro and a zip over a sink was listed as a feature in their real estate ads.


SJB

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  #1579708 24-Jun-2016 17:36
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What have you got against the Austin Allegro?


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