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Glurp
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  Reply # 1586173 5-Jul-2016 09:58
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surfisup1000:

 

 

 

Having lived in Scandinavia I must disagree with respect to your comments on their prison system.   They have very homogeneous societies (although this is now changing) with strong family structures and high societal pressure to conform. 

 

Quite unlike New Zealand.  I'm pretty sure the Scandinavian rehabilitation / prison system would fail in NZ. 

 

 We simply do not have the same support structures once inmates are released. And, you can't build these with money.   These are things like family values, belonging to a group where people expect you to change, etc. ...  The underclass in NZ is of sufficient size where there is no pressure to change from anyone in your daily contact list. 

 

 

 

That is a good point but even if it is true I still don't believe we can solve anything in a meaningful way by building more prisons. As a society we have to decide either to make the necessary investment to prevent people from turning to crime in the first place, or we have to accept living in gated communities. 

 

 





I reject your reality and substitute my own. - Adam Savage
 


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  Reply # 1586204 5-Jul-2016 11:05
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Rikkitic:

 

As a society we have to decide either to make the necessary investment to prevent people from turning to crime in the first place, or we have to accept living in gated communities. 

 

 

I recently listened to the programme leader for the 'Dunedin Study' talking to Katherine Ryan - he divided early criminal offenders into two camps.

 

Firstly there is young people risk taking. These people will come right - unless you allow them to mix with the behavioural syndrome criminals in prison (i.e. career criminal school).  So restorative justice (often lamented as a wet bus ticket) is a potential solution to give normal people a timely reality check.

 

Then there are people who exhibit a syndrome of persistent antisocial/violent behaviour from an early age.  At age 3 they are already identifiable and their behaviour consistently gets worse as they get older.  About 5 - 10% of males.  Very rare in females.  We all went to school with some guys like this.  The researcher estimated they as a group commit about 90% of crime.  He didn't discuss cause or solution.  Restorative justice/rehab won't work on these people because they don't care.  They aren't motivated by community acceptance.

 

As they commit the lion's share of crime, there is significant harm to be prevented gained helping them.  But if the cause of this behavioural syndrome is unknown then prevention is not possible.  In the interim the rest of the community has to be protected from people like this.





Mike

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  Reply # 1586227 5-Jul-2016 11:29
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I agree there are at least some people beyond the help of current knowledge. I agree they need to be identified and incarcerated for the protection of everyone else. I don't see much point in punishing them beyond that if they do not respond, since the purpose of punishment is supposed to be rehabilitation. So keep them locked up for the sake of the rest of us, but try to give them opportunities for productive lives to the extent possible. In the meantime don't sweep up all of those who can be redeemed into the same net. I agree fully with your comments there.

 

 





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  Reply # 1586284 5-Jul-2016 11:41
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MikeAqua:

 

Then there are people who exhibit a syndrome of persistent antisocial/violent behaviour from an early age.  At age 3 they are already identifiable and their behaviour consistently gets worse as they get older.  About 5 - 10% of males. 

 

So, if we're going to protect society from this (and therefore eliminate 90% of crime) we need to jail 5-10% of the male population. For round numbers, let's say that's 2.5% of the population. Let's also exclude under-18s (even though we can predict that they're going to be bad), say 1/3, so we need to permanently jail 1.6% of the population, i.e. about 75,000 people. For comparison, the current prison population is about 11,000, as per the TV news last night. (Wikipedia says we had an incarceration rate of 202/100K as of 2013, which only adds up to 8888 prisoners, but I think rates are increasing.) So we're talking about building and running 7 times as many prisons as now. At 7 times the cost, of course. At $90,000/prisoner/year, that's $6.6B/year.

 

Treasury estimated the total cost of crime at $9.1B in 2004, so it's perhaps $20B this year? (fraud alone was $9.4B in 2014). Jailing the habitually bad for their entire lives will save 90% -- i.e. $18B dollars. A 3:1 ROI.

 

Sounds good to me. Hang on while I go and buy some Serco shares.

 

 

 

 


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  Reply # 1586391 5-Jul-2016 13:01
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frankv:

 

MikeAqua:

 

Then there are people who exhibit a syndrome of persistent antisocial/violent behaviour from an early age.  At age 3 they are already identifiable and their behaviour consistently gets worse as they get older.  About 5 - 10% of males. 

 

So, if we're going to protect society from this (and therefore eliminate 90% of crime) we need to jail 5-10% of the male population. For round numbers, let's say that's 2.5% of the population. Let's also exclude under-18s (even though we can predict that they're going to be bad), say 1/3, so we need to permanently jail 1.6% of the population, i.e. about 75,000 people. For comparison, the current prison population is about 11,000, as per the TV news last night. (Wikipedia says we had an incarceration rate of 202/100K as of 2013, which only adds up to 8888 prisoners, but I think rates are increasing.) So we're talking about building and running 7 times as many prisons as now. At 7 times the cost, of course. At $90,000/prisoner/year, that's $6.6B/year.

 

Treasury estimated the total cost of crime at $9.1B in 2004, so it's perhaps $20B this year? (fraud alone was $9.4B in 2014). Jailing the habitually bad for their entire lives will save 90% -- i.e. $18B dollars. A 3:1 ROI.

 

Sounds good to me. Hang on while I go and buy some Serco shares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think that you guys need to go back and watch the episode again (episode 3?), specifically discussing MAOA gene variations, but that there's a very strong indication association of negative outcomes from early childhood and even possibly or probably fetal development.  The genetic "predisposition" may in fact predispose those individuals to express "desirable" personality traits such as determination, competitiveness etc - and without those "negative" traits - when the early developmental environment is good.  

 

It is a very dangerous game to assume rigid behavioural stereotypes - human beings are not that simple.  Some very dumb mistakes have been made in the past, 47 XYY karyotype a classic example of a dumb but persistent myth.  Conversely - it's a very smart idea to put resources in to make sure that conditions in pregnancy and for infancy/early childhood are ideal, not just to avoid negative outcomes for that (MAOA gene related) but probably a wide range of other negative outcomes from other genes.

 

Perhaps in cases where there are negative outcomes and a genetic link, therapies can be developed.  One thing mentioned on that episode was that genetic predisposition as a defence / to argue for lenient sentences has a flaw - one of the reasons for imprisonment - especially for violent crime - is to keep society safe by locking dangerous people up.  Arguing that you're "genetically predisposed" is suggesting that as you can't help yourself, then perhaps you should be locked up for longer.

 

So again I'll state that I'm a "liberal" WRT imprisonment, but in the case of violent crime, I'd be much more hard-line than most - no "three strikes", but identify and act immediately to intervene when such antisocial behaviour is found. One thing that does correlate is that at least in childhood, the more punitive the punishment (but falling short of "abuse") handed out to individuals with MAOA predisposition, the more antisocial the behaviour became.  Adding things together from that, it wouldn't surprise me to find that's one of the reasons prison outcomes are so shamefully terrible that people are left with the conclusion that the only only answer is to lock them up and throw away the keys.


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  Reply # 1586445 5-Jul-2016 13:48
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Rikkitic:

 

Geektastic:

 

MikeB4:
Geektastic:

 

Rikkitic:

 

 

 

As my posts make clear, I do not believe harsh sentences help with rehabilitation or even prevention. However, I do believe some people are so damaged or deformed that they must be kept locked up to protect everyone else. We have had a few of those in recent years. Maybe this is another one. Our justice system needs the flexibility to recognise and deal with dealing with these kinds of offenders before they go on to destroy other lives. This is not retribution, it is self-defence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What's the point in saddling the rest of society, against whom this waste of carbon and oxygen has continually offended, with a bill for the next 30 or 40 years at $100,000 a year? A .223 round costs only about 50 cents and problem solved.

 



Civilised nations don't condone state murder.There is always a better way.

 

 

 

Euthanising rabid mammals is not murder.

 

Do please share your better way of keeping this clearly insane person from our streets at modest cost, however.....

 

 

Another idiotic comment not worthy of a serious response. A human being, however damaged, is not a rabid dog. There should be no more talk about euthanising people. That is a direction this discussion does not need to go in.

 

 

 

 

I'll disagree with that. 

 

Some people are not worth keeping around. They will never be anything but a burden and a threat to society at large.

 

I suppose we could adopt the Dutch concept - lock them up forever and allow them to end their own lives under medical supervision.






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  Reply # 1586465 5-Jul-2016 14:34
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frankv:

 

MikeAqua:

 

Then there are people who exhibit a syndrome of persistent antisocial/violent behaviour from an early age.  At age 3 they are already identifiable and their behaviour consistently gets worse as they get older.  About 5 - 10% of males. 

 

So, if we're going to protect society from this (and therefore eliminate 90% of crime) we need to jail 5-10% of the male population. 

 

 

We only need to jail the consistently violent people (i.e dangerous) and they are a subset.  The rest are nuisance value that will cause material loss, increase insurance premiums but aren't dangerous.

 

And to protect society eliminate crime we need to treat these people (currently not-possible).





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  Reply # 1586477 5-Jul-2016 15:08
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A gene alone isn't a cause/mechanism.

 

A gene plus environment, plus a whole bunch of within organism processes and interactions among all the above is cause.

 

Pick any one of a dozen neurological disorders and you will find an association with a particular MAOA variant.

 

What is most interesting about the MAOA aggression hypothesis is that it's a mitochondrial (i.e. maternal) gene that is hypothesised to have an effect in males.  Complicated.

 

Fred99:

 

I think that you guys need to go back and watch the episode again (episode 3?), specifically discussing MAOA gene variations, but that there's a very strong indication association of negative outcomes from early childhood and even possibly or probably fetal development. 





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  Reply # 1586507 5-Jul-2016 16:03
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MikeAqua:

 

 

 

What is most interesting about the MAOA aggression hypothesis is that it's a mitochondrial (i.e. maternal) gene that is hypothesised to have an effect in males.  Complicated.

 

 

 

 

The MAOA gene is located on the X chromosome - not in the mitochondrial genome.

 

That location on the X chromosome has implications for heritability / expression in males vs females.


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  Reply # 1586665 5-Jul-2016 20:01
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Here's another one:

 

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11669115

 

Nothing too much about his background in the NZ Herald article, but...

 

Here's some of his "form" detailed:

 

https://www.caselaw.nsw.gov.au/decision/5594dac0e4b0f1d031dea3b3

 

"As a 12 year old, he attacked a teacher with a knife", and it's downhill from then.

 

Note the conditions imposed (in 2015) for extended supervision order (5 years).

 

This is how one of his victims fared:

 

 

The victim’s injuries were multiple and included scalp lacerations (with brain exposed through them), a left occipital parietal comminuted skull facture, fractured left zycoma and a left extradural haematoma. In the words of Amohanga, “We … cracked his head like a watermelon”. The victim suffered a traumatic brain injury in the extremely severe category.

 

He underwent a craniotomy and later a cranioplasty. He spent time in a Brain Injury Rehabilitation Unit and required assistance to stand and mobilise and supervision when swallowing. He has lost his ability to communicate in English. He has been left seriously and permanently impaired, both physically and mentally. A report of Dr McCarthy, a rehabilitation specialist, records that the impairment is of social and intellectual functions and the victim will require supported living and assistance with basic care and community tasks for the rest of his life and will remain unfit for work either in the open market or supported. His condition has been exacerbated by an organic psychotic depression and he has suffered post-traumatic epilepsy, albeit this is managed well with medication. His wife and children left him in October 2002 and the clear inference is that this was the result of his injury.

 

 

 


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  Reply # 1586694 5-Jul-2016 20:38
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Fred99:

Here's another one:


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11669115


Nothing too much about his background in the NZ Herald article, but...


Here's some of his "form" detailed:


https://www.caselaw.nsw.gov.au/decision/5594dac0e4b0f1d031dea3b3


"As a 12 year old, he attacked a teacher with a knife", and it's downhill from then.


Note the conditions imposed (in 2015) for extended supervision order (5 years).


This is how one of his victims fared:



The victim’s injuries were multiple and included scalp lacerations (with brain exposed through them), a left occipital parietal comminuted skull facture, fractured left zycoma and a left extradural haematoma. In the words of Amohanga, “We … cracked his head like a watermelon”. The victim suffered a traumatic brain injury in the extremely severe category.


He underwent a craniotomy and later a cranioplasty. He spent time in a Brain Injury Rehabilitation Unit and required assistance to stand and mobilise and supervision when swallowing. He has lost his ability to communicate in English. He has been left seriously and permanently impaired, both physically and mentally. A report of Dr McCarthy, a rehabilitation specialist, records that the impairment is of social and intellectual functions and the victim will require supported living and assistance with basic care and community tasks for the rest of his life and will remain unfit for work either in the open market or supported. His condition has been exacerbated by an organic psychotic depression and he has suffered post-traumatic epilepsy, albeit this is managed well with medication. His wife and children left him in October 2002 and the clear inference is that this was the result of his injury.



 



Shame his parents didn't apply for Australian citizenship for him when he was a child. He may have been born and spent the first 4 years of his life here, but he was definitely raised mostly in Australia, the next 39 years of his life was in Australia. Is his behaviour an Australian created problem?

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  Reply # 1586803 5-Jul-2016 21:32
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Regarding some of the 'genetic' stuff earlier. I know very little about it but I do know what was presented earlier was simplified to the point of being wrong.

 

 

The thing that bothers me about this stuff is it becomes a kind of modern folk wisdom but generally useless though and it takes a long time for education to catch up with it.

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  Reply # 1586819 5-Jul-2016 21:55
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Kiwifruta:  
Shame his parents didn't apply for Australian citizenship for him when he was a child. He may have been born and spent the first 4 years of his life here, but he was definitely raised mostly in Australia, the next 39 years of his life was in Australia. Is his behaviour an Australian created problem?


 

SMH... By what? His "parents"? If you've got sh*t for parents, you're going to have a sh*t upbringing no matter where you live.

 

You keep blaming someone else though, if it makes you feel your little slice of the world is perfect.


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  Reply # 1586846 5-Jul-2016 23:31
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blakamin:

Kiwifruta:  
Shame his parents didn't apply for Australian citizenship for him when he was a child. He may have been born and spent the first 4 years of his life here, but he was definitely raised mostly in Australia, the next 39 years of his life was in Australia. Is his behaviour an Australian created problem?



SMH... By what? His "parents"? If you've got sh*t for parents, you're going to have a sh*t upbringing no matter where you live.


You keep blaming someone else though, if it makes you feel your little slice of the world is perfect.



Agreed about parents and upbringing. But isn't that an assumption that it was his parents' poor parenting that caused his behavioural issues? Crumbs, I know kids with great parents, but the kids have still gone off the rails and hang out with the wrong crowd.

I never said I feel my little slice of the world is perfect. Stop the assumptions. I have lived in Australia too, it's a great place.

Who did I blame? My last line was a question. I wonder about some of these NZers being sent back to NZ, how many of their behavioural issues are NZ created and how many Australia created? I question why people with Australian created behavioural issues are sent back to NZ. I'm not implying that his behavioural issues are Australian caused, but I am asking if they are Australian caused. 39 years vs 4 years as a pre-schooler, to me it's the white elephant in the room. The question needs to be asked.



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  Reply # 1586850 5-Jul-2016 23:41
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There is an irony in a country founded as a penal colony sending back felons it doesn't want!






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