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gzt

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  Reply # 1765341 17-Apr-2017 16:11
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tdgeek:

gzt:
tdgeek:


gzt: Part of a policy group announcement Friday:

NZHerald (AP Wire) But a U.S. military official, who requested anonymity to discuss planning, said the U.S. doesn't intend to use military force against North Korea in response to either a nuclear test or a missile launch. The official said plans could change in the unlikely event a North Korean missile targets South Korea, Japan or U.S. territory.

The timing of the policy announcement seems designed to reduce tension.


 


That has always been the policy, official or unofficial. The only thing that has changed is the old rant to get oil and food is fading. more pressure goes to PRNK. I can see PRNK acting bad, but silently hoping China brokers a deal. I'd hope that the US cuts off all trade with PRNK, and advises that while it will reduce the so called acts of aggression touted by KJU, the US will shoot any missiles that leave their waters or borders, and that it has no official intention to strike pre-emptively. Cards on the table.



Pres B.Clinton had a deal with NK for an exchange in exchange for halting nuclear development. It was working as designed, until Republican Party disruption effectively scuppered that outcome. After that, NK decided progress in nuclear and military development was the only way forward to guarantee security.

Imo USA should have officially ended the Korean war anywhere between 50 and 20 years ago. NK would not have pursued a nuclear path and it would be more like Vietnam or China today.

There is still time to restart that process. The current course of USA benefits absolutely no one.


Ive read a few articles on PRNK. Its a dictatorship, where if you dissent, you die. I see the rhetoric against the west as to scaremonger the people, that isn't going to change. They do a bad thing, we add sanctions, they say they want anymore, aid is given in terms of food and oil. Nothing changes. They do something, we send a ship in, they say its an act of war. Bottom line is you cannot negotiate a peaceful coexistence with them. Or in actuality, with the sole dictator. To remain in control, he needs absolute control. 


The issue, would he attack? No. He cant attack as he will get attacked back, lose his position and/or lose face. For him to say that the US will pre emotively strike is him maintaining control over the people. The US won't strike, there is no need and no gain. If the tiger wont be nice, keep him in his cage, maybe one day the people will revolt, but with his iron hand, hard to see that. I favour increased sanctions. However that affects the people. Perhaps sanction everything possible, except food aid? Maybe SK allows free immigration to NK nationals? 


Now, what happens if NK launches a missile and that gets shot down? That fine as he broke the rules so we shoot them down. If they got to Japanese airspace, thats technically an act of war, but lets be real and just shoot it down. But PRNK wills that we attacked their country. Thats the issue that means there is no means to negotiate on anything. 


It could easily be, here is aid, be good, don't mess with us we wont mess with you, end of story. But he loses control as there is nothing to force the people to comply. 


I believe SK already allows NK citizens. The USA does not diplomatically recognise the DPRK. There was an agreement for a ceasefire at the end of the Korean War and that is all. It is time the USA recognised NK, and made a diplomatic effort to provide the security guarantees the north seeks against invasion since the ceasefire of 1950 something.

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  Reply # 1765395 17-Apr-2017 19:02
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I think that while there's justified condemnation of KJU and the DPRK for pulling out of the NPT in particular, some of the hysteria is probably "fake news".
Israel, India, Pakistan are nuclear armed and never signed the NPT - still haven't.
Korea (peninsula) is the site of a past early cold-war era proxy war, with all three (USA/PRC/USSR) involved, never "won", it's still just an armistice.

 

It seems to me that when North or South have attempted discussion on unification, the debate is hijacked by the big three, PRC doesn't want a US-centric united Korea on it's border (neither does Russia probably). The US loves having a generally very pro-US Korea in the region, doesn't want that watered down. Russia doesn't like US hegemony - and wants to sell gas to Korea via a pipeline which currently would go through DPRK - who could do with the money, and given the anti-nuclear and anti-coal sentiment, could probably do with some Russian gas.

 

Meanwhile, DPRK is trying to make reliable solid-fuel intermediate range missiles, including submarine launched, as a "deterrent" to an expected attack - and that expected attack from the USA.  They have their nuclear program, pulled out of the NPT in 2003.  US president was... GWB.

 

The problem with Korea is for the main part perpetuated by the USA.

 

Trump - for all the BS argued here about him "doing nothing" - is a curse on planet earth.  Also for the idiots arguing that the "brilliant US generals" will have the best plan.  Curse their military plans, curse Trump's threats.  The solution - if there ever will be one - is in diplomacy - something that the present POTUS has no comprehension about.  He gives not the tiniest f$#$ about the people of Korea - North or South.

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1766470 18-Apr-2017 06:52
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Fred99:

 

I think that while there's justified condemnation of KJU and the DPRK for pulling out of the NPT in particular, some of the hysteria is probably "fake news".
Israel, India, Pakistan are nuclear armed and never signed the NPT - still haven't.
Korea (peninsula) is the site of a past early cold-war era proxy war, with all three (USA/PRC/USSR) involved, never "won", it's still just an armistice.

 

It seems to me that when North or South have attempted discussion on unification, the debate is hijacked by the big three, PRC doesn't want a US-centric united Korea on it's border (neither does Russia probably). The US loves having a generally very pro-US Korea in the region, doesn't want that watered down. Russia doesn't like US hegemony - and wants to sell gas to Korea via a pipeline which currently would go through DPRK - who could do with the money, and given the anti-nuclear and anti-coal sentiment, could probably do with some Russian gas.

 

Meanwhile, DPRK is trying to make reliable solid-fuel intermediate range missiles, including submarine launched, as a "deterrent" to an expected attack - and that expected attack from the USA.  They have their nuclear program, pulled out of the NPT in 2003.  US president was... GWB.

 

The problem with Korea is for the main part perpetuated by the USA.

 

Trump - for all the BS argued here about him "doing nothing" - is a curse on planet earth.  Also for the idiots arguing that the "brilliant US generals" will have the best plan.  Curse their military plans, curse Trump's threats.  The solution - if there ever will be one - is in diplomacy - something that the present POTUS has no comprehension about.  He gives not the tiniest f$#$ about the people of Korea - North or South.

 

 

 

 

Diplomacy, PRNK????

 

The NK issue isn't a Trump issue, it was an issue long before him and will be long after him. He wont make a difference, good or bad. If he wasnt POTUS, the exact same scenario would not be the highlight it seems to be. 


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  Reply # 1766473 18-Apr-2017 07:34
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I don't agree.

 

Trump is very much making it a Trump issue.   The US is deliberately attempting to wind up KJU to provoke a reaction which will influence elections, overstating the threat from DPRK and need for the US to step up military presence.

 

 


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  Reply # 1766480 18-Apr-2017 07:53
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Fred99:

 

I don't agree.

 

Trump is very much making it a Trump issue.   The US is deliberately attempting to wind up KJU to provoke a reaction which will influence elections, overstating the threat from DPRK and need for the US to step up military presence.

 

 

 

 

Yet another planned nuclear test and yet another missile test is not provoking? All they do is provoke, to them get reduced sanctions and food and oil. While the west supports the US stance, and what is a very small response, so does China who is enforcing its own sanctions publiclly. As for overstating, PRNK can reach the US, so while they wont do anything except use that as a provocation, but the decades old response form PRNK is the US will attack at any time, which is rubbish. Its not ok for one to defend in a mild way, yet its ok for the other to maintain power and control by telling their citizens and the world that the US is all set to attack. They are just playing the US, SK, Japan, and the rest of the world off. Thats ok, there is no war threat from the west, so who cares? The west doesn't, so instead of being pro active to force a war, they go to the negotiating table and get reneged on, and ensure there is a local military presence just in case. Thats pretty mild. And it should leave the BAY PRNK madness to being another news item, been there done that so many times. But the Trump effect kicks in to make it new news, but its not  


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  Reply # 1766504 18-Apr-2017 08:36
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China recognise that KJU is a particular problem/threat - because he's clearly unbalanced and threatening, and they don't like his nuclear ambitions one little bit.  But they do not want the US THAAD system fully operational, and if there was to be regime change / toppling KJU in DPRK, they certainly do not want a US-centric occupation or unified Korea with foreign military presence on their border with DPRK.

 

China no doubt recognise that Trump is a dangerous idiot, a liar, unpredictable, and a blabber-mouth.  Trump may claim that he has "cooperation" from PRC on the KJU issue, but he's mistaking good manners and diplomacy for "friendship".

 

Hypothetical / risk analysis, it's a situation where there's (hopefully very) low probability of "war", but a high probability that if there was war, it would be cataclysmic with long-term consequences for the region.


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  Reply # 1766512 18-Apr-2017 08:54
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Fred99:

 

China recognise that KJU is a particular problem/threat - because he's clearly unbalanced and threatening, and they don't like his nuclear ambitions one little bit.  But they do not want the US THAAD system fully operational, and if there was to be regime change / toppling KJU in DPRK, they certainly do not want a US-centric occupation or unified Korea with foreign military presence on their border with DPRK.

 

China no doubt recognise that Trump is a dangerous idiot, a liar, unpredictable, and a blabber-mouth.  Trump may claim that he has "cooperation" from PRC on the KJU issue, but he's mistaking good manners and diplomacy for "friendship".

 

Hypothetical / risk analysis, it's a situation where there's (hopefully very) low probability of "war", but a high probability that if there was war, it would be cataclysmic with long-term consequences for the region.

 

 

The THAAD is an issue. That assumes that PRC has issues with the USA attacking China, which is pretty bizarre. If PRNK launches a missile, against the rules and agreements, then anyone has every right to shoot it down. THAAD is a defence mechanism. It would be very different if the US armed multiple missile sites in the region aimed at Pyongyang and advised that to the world. Given PRNK irrational behaviour, China needs to accept that a defense system is right and is that due to the PRNK.

 

Forget diplomacy, unless its ONLY between the west and China regarding PRNK. The latter has run out of points to deserve being part of a diplomatic resolvement. China has a lot of sway with NK, and you can talk to them, and they have shown they can act. But until missile tests stop, the anti missile system should be there 


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  Reply # 1766633 18-Apr-2017 11:11
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THAAD won't protect South Korea from a missile barrage from DPRK. South Koreans realise that - and many don't want it because of the geopolitical and nuclear deterrent balance issues it creates.  It just adds to an arms race.

 

Trump's USA is now rushing to get it operational - before there's a probable change from an interim conservative president to a liberal (based on current polling).

 

The USA are up to dirty tricks - as has become usual for a Republican led regime. Same old same old. Using and aggravating a situation with KJU and DPRK to further their own agenda.

 

 


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  Reply # 1766687 18-Apr-2017 12:49
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Fred99:

 

THAAD won't protect South Korea from a missile barrage from DPRK. South Koreans realise that - and many don't want it because of the geopolitical and nuclear deterrent balance issues it creates.  It just adds to an arms race.

 

Trump's USA is now rushing to get it operational - before there's a probable change from an interim conservative president to a liberal (based on current polling).

 

The USA are up to dirty tricks - as has become usual for a Republican led regime. Same old same old. Using and aggravating a situation with KJU and DPRK to further their own agenda.

 

 

 

 

Do you have any articles to support the first sentence? Re many who don't want them? And don't they work well? If there was a barrage of missiles, I think the defence strategy goes out the window, and in comes the attack strategy.

 

Its not Trumps USA getting it operational, it was announced by Obama, to be installed towards end 2017. Given whats going on by PRNK, no issue to see it pushed ahead.

 

And Democrats for bringing in THAAD. So all of USA is up to dirty tricks. Its not just Repubs or Demo's, or Trump, its national.

 

I would be happy if the US pulled out of every issue. NK, Syria, everywhere, no exceptions. And not lead anything offshore. Their contribution can be troops and machinery, let someone else organise it. Allow USA to focus on itself, and they can do what they like to beef up their defence, given that they will have removed themselves from decision making in global hotspots. Then we are back to the arms race. 


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  Reply # 1766954 18-Apr-2017 19:18
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Click to see full size
"Easter at the Trump White House: The Daily Show"

You'd think Trump couldn't possibly screw up the US National Anthem, at an Easter Egg hunt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49x3HZweRpU


Not so funny, but also worth watching: "The Resistance with Keith Olbermann "

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL0hKMB1-xkc-XWNf9VL-LxVYysdHpjyMF

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  Reply # 1766966 18-Apr-2017 19:43
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Homage to "Game of Thrones" Tyrion Lannister


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  Reply # 1767081 19-Apr-2017 08:50
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tdgeek:

 

Fred99:

 

THAAD won't protect South Korea from a missile barrage from DPRK. South Koreans realise that - and many don't want it because of the geopolitical and nuclear deterrent balance issues it creates.  It just adds to an arms race.

 

Trump's USA is now rushing to get it operational - before there's a probable change from an interim conservative president to a liberal (based on current polling).

 

The USA are up to dirty tricks - as has become usual for a Republican led regime. Same old same old. Using and aggravating a situation with KJU and DPRK to further their own agenda.

 

 

 

 

Do you have any articles to support the first sentence? Re many who don't want them? And don't they work well? If there was a barrage of missiles, I think the defence strategy goes out the window, and in comes the attack strategy.

 

Its not Trumps USA getting it operational, it was announced by Obama, to be installed towards end 2017. Given whats going on by PRNK, no issue to see it pushed ahead.

 

And Democrats for bringing in THAAD. So all of USA is up to dirty tricks. Its not just Repubs or Demo's, or Trump, its national.

 

I would be happy if the US pulled out of every issue. NK, Syria, everywhere, no exceptions. And not lead anything offshore. Their contribution can be troops and machinery, let someone else organise it. Allow USA to focus on itself, and they can do what they like to beef up their defence, given that they will have removed themselves from decision making in global hotspots. Then we are back to the arms race. 

 

 

It's a numbers game.  A THAAD battery has 48 interceptors (at what price? $20 million US each), DPRK has an unknown number of (presumably cheap DIY) missiles from modified Soviet era SCUDs,  through to more modern solid-fuel rockets. Total number could be thousands. They are also claimed to have chemical (we know they have some VX) as well as biological weapons (weaponized anthrax).

 

If THAAD works as planned, then it's supposed to be able to determine which missiles have nuclear warheads (vs dummies), but at this stage it's not known if DPRK have a miniaturised warhead.  It is known that they can't have many of any type, as they're limited by their own plutonium production.  They threaten "thermonuclear war" - but it's highly unlikely they've got a thermonuclear weapon, so for that part, if they launched a nuclear (fission) strike, the thermonuclear war would be one way traffic directed at them.

 

So, in the unlikely (at this time) event that DPRK actually has a miniaturized warhead and a delivery system, THAAD would be of some use to prevent nuclear attack, but meanwhile a fleet of cheap missiles rains down on South Korea, loaded with chemical, biological, or conventional warheads.  All hypothetical as for all posturing and threats, both sides want to avert it.  As each side increases their military strike and countermeasures, tension escalates.  The only time it seems tensions de-escalate is when they talk together. The path to a peaceful solution is a no-brainer - and Trump clearly has no brain.

 

 


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  Reply # 1767089 19-Apr-2017 09:07
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Fred99:

 

 

 

It's a numbers game.  A THAAD battery has 48 interceptors (at what price? $20 million US each), DPRK has an unknown number of (presumably cheap DIY) missiles from modified Soviet era SCUDs,  through to more modern solid-fuel rockets. Total number could be thousands. They are also claimed to have chemical (we know they have some VX) as well as biological weapons (weaponized anthrax).

 

If THAAD works as planned, then it's supposed to be able to determine which missiles have nuclear warheads (vs dummies), but at this stage it's not known if DPRK have a miniaturised warhead.  It is known that they can't have many of any type, as they're limited by their own plutonium production.  They threaten "thermonuclear war" - but it's highly unlikely they've got a thermonuclear weapon, so for that part, if they launched a nuclear (fission) strike, the thermonuclear war would be one way traffic directed at them.

 

So, in the unlikely (at this time) event that DPRK actually has a miniaturized warhead and a delivery system, THAAD would be of some use to prevent nuclear attack, but meanwhile a fleet of cheap missiles rains down on South Korea, loaded with chemical, biological, or conventional warheads.  All hypothetical as for all posturing and threats, both sides want to avert it.  As each side increases their military strike and countermeasures, tension escalates.  The only time it seems tensions de-escalate is when they talk together. The path to a peaceful solution is a no-brainer - and Trump clearly has no brain.

 

 

 

 

Its not a Trump issue, its a decades old issue. So far he has done nothing amiss as regards Syria, Afghanistan, or PRNK. Not one thing actually. For PRNK what they say and do is BAU. The West or US Talking with them will never happen, the closest it can get is China talking to them


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  Reply # 1767092 19-Apr-2017 09:13
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There is some speculation that Trump may not actually even be aware of who is in charge in North Korea.

 

Trump also made two references in the interview to “this gentleman” in North Korea, who he said had “outplayed” both Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. The late North Korean ruler Kim Jong Il died in 2011. His son, Kim Jong Un, is the country’s current ruler.

 

“But, you know, they’ve been talking with this gentleman for a long time,” Trump said. “You read Clinton’s book, he said, ‘Oh, we made such a great peace deal,’ and it was a joke. You look at different things over the years with President Obama. Everybody has been outplayed, they’ve all been outplayed by this gentleman. And we’ll see what happens. But I just don’t telegraph my moves.”


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  Reply # 1767100 19-Apr-2017 09:20
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Trump’s ‘armada’ heading to North Korea was really off Australian coast

"The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier that the Trump administration had said was steaming toward North Korea was actually conducting exercises off the coast of Australia, a U.S. defense official acknowledged Tuesday"

 

More lies, or more ignorance?  undecided





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