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  Reply # 1667086 10-Nov-2016 07:35
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Fred99:

 

There's been a bit of a recovery from the initial steep slump triggered when it looked like Trump had a chance, then worsening as it started to look inevitable.  That's kind of expected - sell on the rumour stuff.

 

Trump's speech was less inflammatory than it could have been, so that's been a bit calming.

 

The problem isn't now though - it's what happens over coming months,  Trump's made all kinds of headline claims about what he's going to do, some of them would spell disaster, some the figures just don't add up. Lord knows.  Small things can trigger major events.  The Chinese will_not_be_happy.

 

My guess longer term, the "establishment" in the US will win, controlling Trump and forcing winding back on his outrageous promises.  The biggest losers will be the Trump voters who elected him based on his lies.  The rich and the establishment will continue to prosper.

 

 

I agree. he is a doer, and he will want to be seen doing stuff from Jan 20. His wall, the rhetoric seems like a Berlin wall, but it will be docile. More border staff, maybe a small tower every mile with detectors to detect incomings. Sorted. His policy on illegals, he will say they are all going home, but we will allow those with no legal/criminal issues to stay, the]ose with American born kids to stay. Diluted but sorted. Tax cuts? Hmm, costly. I see action, I also see a high level of dilution.And a change to another Republican president in 4 years time


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  Reply # 1667739 11-Nov-2016 05:55
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Chinese economy might be more effected as Trump has signaled cutting off imports from there.


 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1667741 11-Nov-2016 06:10
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Cthom:

Chinese economy might be more effected as Trump has signaled cutting off imports from there.



How does that affect stuff designed in California, made in China?




Swype on iOS is detrimental to accurate typing. Apologies in advance.


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  Reply # 1667752 11-Nov-2016 07:15
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joker97:
Cthom:

 

Chinese economy might be more effected as Trump has signaled cutting off imports from there.

 



How does that affect stuff designed in California, made in China?

 

 

 

Trump is such a fool that he headlined a 45% tariff on Chinese made goods without considering even simple basic complications like that.

 

The likely answer is that nothing may happen, like so many pledges that Trump won't be able to deliver on.  

 

 


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  Reply # 1667763 11-Nov-2016 07:26
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joker97:
Cthom:

 

Chinese economy might be more effected as Trump has signaled cutting off imports from there.

 



How does that affect stuff designed in California, made in China?

 

He wants US companies back, to manufacturer in the US. Apple is one that now has some plants or plant in the US I believe, MacBooks. Part of that. COSTLY for the buyers to be paying US wages instead of Asian or South American wages


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  Reply # 1667766 11-Nov-2016 07:33
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Fred99:

 

joker97:
Cthom:

 

Chinese economy might be more effected as Trump has signaled cutting off imports from there.

 



How does that affect stuff designed in California, made in China?

 

 

 

Trump is such a fool that he headlined a 45% tariff on Chinese made goods without considering even simple basic complications like that.

 

The likely answer is that nothing may happen, like so many pledges that Trump won't be able to deliver on.  

 

 

 

 

He has to do something, its expected now. How much can he dilute his promises before its seen as a failure? The wall, sending Clinton to jail, illegals, Moslems, infrastructure, tax cuts.

 

His outrageous behaviour and his over the top promises turned his campaign into a frenzy for his supporters. If he was milder, milder promises, he's just a candidate and loses as he has no experience, but his campaign gathered the nations citizens, who haven't thought about the consequences, they got caught up the movement. Now he has a raft of things to take action on, its far too much, both in cost and instability. But he has to move on them I feel, otherwise, then he will be the target of riots, by his own.

 

Corner backed into  


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  Reply # 1667775 11-Nov-2016 07:53
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tdgeek:

 

joker97:
Cthom:

 

Chinese economy might be more effected as Trump has signaled cutting off imports from there.

 



How does that affect stuff designed in California, made in China?

 

He wants US companies back, to manufacturer in the US. Apple is one that now has some plants or plant in the US I believe, MacBooks. Part of that. COSTLY for the buyers to be paying US wages instead of Asian or South American wages

 

 

 

 

We've talked about the threat to jobs from automation and AI in other threads

 

Here's what's happening in China: http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36376966

 

Foxconn staff reduced from 110,000 to 50,000 - 60,000 jobs lost to machines.
Sure - high tech industry can move back to the US when human labour cost as % of total production cost drops - it actually doesn't matter then where stuff is made - what matters is who owns the machines.  Trump's plan belongs back in the 1930s perhaps - same era his racial/social policy also belongs.

 

Or Trump could "force" Apple to bring iPhone production to the US now, and we'll see how the market would respond to the concept of a $3k iPhone vs a $1k Samsung thing.


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  Reply # 1667784 11-Nov-2016 08:13
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Fred99:

 

tdgeek:

 

joker97:
Cthom:

 

Chinese economy might be more effected as Trump has signaled cutting off imports from there.

 



How does that affect stuff designed in California, made in China?

 

He wants US companies back, to manufacturer in the US. Apple is one that now has some plants or plant in the US I believe, MacBooks. Part of that. COSTLY for the buyers to be paying US wages instead of Asian or South American wages

 

 

 

 

We've talked about the threat to jobs from automation and AI in other threads

 

Here's what's happening in China: http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36376966

 

Foxconn staff reduced from 110,000 to 50,000 - 60,000 jobs lost to machines.
Sure - high tech industry can move back to the US when human labour cost as % of total production cost drops - it actually doesn't matter then where stuff is made - what matters is who owns the machines.  Trump's plan belongs back in the 1930s perhaps - same era his racial/social policy also belongs.

 

Or Trump could "force" Apple to bring iPhone production to the US now, and we'll see how the market would respond to the concept of a $3k iPhone vs a $1k Samsung thing.

 

 

Great points. I guess that applies to all goods, the level of automation. Whether it be an iPhone or a outdoor table and chair set. Another way to look at it, is a toaster, an outdoor set, a cordless drill, anything. These may all cost only 20% more than an imported one. The quality may be same, or a bit less. It becomes hard for the average Joe to pay 20% more for many many items, big and small. Thats basically like a tax increase to a consumer. Might it be more than wages? Steel? US steel is more costly than Chinese steel, and I assume than equal quality Chinese steel. So the wages being US wages would apply to other cost components of US made goods as well, as in materials. If imports dropped a lot due to tariff, then they have to buy US made. That may well be a very high impact to the wage check every week. 


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  Reply # 1667785 11-Nov-2016 08:19
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http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/us-election-2016/86348991/trump-campaign-removes-muslim-ban-link-from-website

 

Oh dear. Well, they do say change is normal these days. Here are two promises removed from his website. And other like past issues.

 

 

 

Will that policy drink be full strength sir?  No, add some water. More water. More water. 


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  Reply # 1667786 11-Nov-2016 08:21
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tdgeek:

 

 

 

Corner backed into  

 

 

 

 

Trump has removed from his campaign website:

 

Reference to banning muslims from entering the US.  Immigration policy links removed.
Reference to pulling out of the Paris Climate agreement has been pulled.
His list of SCOTUS candidates has been removed.

 

He's met with Obama, and made the comment that Obama is "a very good man".

 

Russian officials have claimed that they were in contact with the Trump team throughout the campaign.

 

Many Trump supporters are going to be feeling very butt-hurt as the Trump establishment steps in to dismantle much of what they voted for.

 

 


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  Reply # 1667788 11-Nov-2016 08:28
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Fred99:

 

tdgeek:

 

 

 

Corner backed into  

 

 

 

 

Trump has removed from his campaign website:

 

Reference to banning muslims from entering the US.  Immigration policy links removed.
Reference to pulling out of the Paris Climate agreement has been pulled.
His list of SCOTUS candidates has been removed.

 

He's met with Obama, and made the comment that Obama is "a very good man".

 

Russian officials have claimed that they were in contact with the Trump team throughout the campaign.

 

Many Trump supporters are going to be feeling very butt-hurt as the Trump establishment steps in to dismantle much of what they voted for.

 

 

 

 

Yes, I just posted the removal stuff. On the other thread, what it means for NZ and US. I wasn't aware of the Russian comment. 

 

Its been 48 hours. Will a week go by and we end up with a policy range not hugely far off the Democrats?? Stupid thing to say, or is it?

 

These riots, I can see them happening again, by Trump supporters. He got in via his out there mantra, coming home to roost it seems.  


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  Reply # 1667796 11-Nov-2016 08:39
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Trump is a marketing expert and a good show man, he knows very well how to play a crowd. His victory is testament to that. He is also a businessman he knows what to do to make money.




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A Tiger in Africa, probably escaped from the Zoo.

 

 


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  Reply # 1667798 11-Nov-2016 08:45
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Fred99:

 

We've talked about the threat to jobs from automation and AI in other threads

 

 

It really is about time we talked about the *promise* of automation. The average person ought to be gaining the benefit of all this progress & technology; instead, the benefit goes to the 1%. Share the income more equitably so that the average wage goes up by 20%, then give everyone 3-day weekends.

 

 


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  Reply # 1667822 11-Nov-2016 09:35
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MikeB4: Trump is a marketing expert and a good show man, he knows very well how to play a crowd. His victory is testament to that. He is also a businessman he knows what to do to make money.

 

 

 

Yes - but how is he going to manage to play his tune to a different crowd but not alienate the core support dragged-in by playing the race card etc?

 

"The wall" is still on his site.

 

Some of his anti-establishment talk "draining the swamp" etc is non-specific enough to be meaningless.

 

Repealing "Obamacare" is starting to look unlikely, there have apparently been record daily signups since the election.  The reality that "repeal" would mean cancelling already issued health cover for >10 million people seems to be something that they're waking up to.  Reform - to try to nail premium increases - seems to be on the GOP agenda.  Whoops - Obama was already working on that.  As Trump says - he's a very good man.


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  Reply # 1667906 11-Nov-2016 11:05
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Mike
Retired IT Manager. 
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

 Mac user, Windows curser, Chrome OS desired.

 

A Tiger in Africa, probably escaped from the Zoo.

 

 


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