Woooaaahh earthquake 2016-11-14

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BDFL - Memuneh
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# 1672965 17-Nov-2016 17:25

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mattwnz:

freitasm:

Couternay Central evacuated... "It was believed concerns about the structural stability of the Courtenay Central car park sparked the evacuation."

That's the same car park that has just reopened after a couple of years of work to make it safe, after it was closed because of the previous earthquakes.

Wasn't the carpark previously damaged in the 2013 quakes? I seem to recall something about that. I think a lot of the land in that area is reclaimed or new shoreline lifted in the 1800's from previous quakes. So I guess it isn't unexpected that it would be damaged in a larger quake like this. But what I do wonder is why they let people return to these buildings after the quake, without indepth checks being done initially?

Exactly what I am talking about. The carpark was closed for two years for structural work and has been opened for only a few months now. And it's not closed again.

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Fred99

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# 1672966 17-Nov-2016 17:25

tdgeek:

That is the formula that they use. Although actually, there are two quakes, so the numbers may change to reflect that. And unlike ChCh, this areas, Seddon and Kaikoura are interacting. The Greendale and Lytellton faults no doubt had some interaction but not at this level.

It will be interesting to see more information on the M7.8, faults involved and what happened with each.

I believe the Darfield quake had strike slip and reverse thrusting, was effectively "more than one quake", and possibly three or 4 quakes in one. Then there were two main faults interacting in Chch, the Greendale eventually set off the Port Hills system - with "the gap" in between. After that, it was quite typical to see a large aftershock on one system trigger aftershocks on the other - at times it almost looked like a game of ping pong.

It's very comforting for Chch anyway, that quake on Monday doesn't seem to have reactivated anything here.

There are more similarities than differences really. The fault systems and tectonics of the upper NE SI are a contorted mess. The Chch quake was a little unexpected but still known as a possibility beforehand. This M7.8 was totally expected.

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# 1672967 17-Nov-2016 17:30

Fred99:

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

30% chance of a 7 to 7.8 in next 30 days. Alert on phone from Stuff, I assume based on revised magnitude. With 2+ active faults in play its anybodys guess

I hate how the media treat these events as clickbait. If you looked at the Geo net website, that 30% probability within 30 days has always existed from day 1.

I'm not sure how well the average person is equipped to read what look like simple charts to us.

People do want to know - "WTF is going to happen?" even though there are no certain answers.

I think that's okay for the media to tell them accurately and responsibly. What shouldn't be reported is doomsaying/prediction by religious nutters, astrologers, moon-phase lunatics etc.

I believe that GNS may have revised probabilities upwards consistent with the revision of the main shock magnitude up to 7.8 although I don't know what original estimates were.

It's actually stated since noon today as 27% probability of a >= 7.0 over the next 30 days. I think they'll revise that daily as events unfold.

We all know what happened when the UK betting agency paid out for a Hillary Clinton win 3 months before the elections.

Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.

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# 1672968 17-Nov-2016 17:31

Fred99:

tdgeek:

That is the formula that they use. Although actually, there are two quakes, so the numbers may change to reflect that. And unlike ChCh, this areas, Seddon and Kaikoura are interacting. The Greendale and Lytellton faults no doubt had some interaction but not at this level.

It will be interesting to see more information on the M7.8, faults involved and what happened with each.

I believe the Darfield quake had strike slip and reverse thrusting, was effectively "more than one quake", and possibly three or 4 quakes in one. Then there were two main faults interacting in Chch, the Greendale eventually set off the Port Hills system - with "the gap" in between. After that, it was quite typical to see a large aftershock on one system trigger aftershocks on the other - at times it almost looked like a game of ping pong.

It's very comforting for Chch anyway, that quake on Monday doesn't seem to have reactivated anything here.

There are more similarities than differences really. The fault systems and tectonics of the upper NE SI are a contorted mess. The Chch quake was a little unexpected but still known as a possibility beforehand. This M7.8 was totally expected.

Till today I didn't know about these. Where can I get succinct info on the Chch quake?

Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.

mattwnz

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# 1672971 17-Nov-2016 17:39

freitasm:

Exactly what I am talking about. The carpark was closed for two years for structural work and has been opened for only a few months now. And it's not closed again.

Although was it strengthened further or just repaired? If it was just repaired, then it will likely reoccur again. The damage may just be superficial, like the stadium which also has some damage and can't currently be used. Much of the damage seemed to be things like buckled steel cover plates joining two independent structural elements, where both structures move independently, and will cause damage at the joint. So even though it maybe fine structurally, cars can't drive over the plates.

Considering how bad the earthquakes felt in Wellington, I am surprised that the buildings held up so well, and we were allowed back into town after a day. But I guess it is partly due to Wellington having done so much EQ strengthening work on it's old buildings.

Fred99

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# 1672972 17-Nov-2016 17:39

joker97:

Till today I didn't know about these. Where can I get succinct info on the Chch quake?

How's this for timing - 8 days before Feb 22 2011

Stuff link

This from GNS

Geonet link

You may find more detail here:

Different Geonet link

[Mod note: edited for link length - broke page]

JayADee

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# 1673004 17-Nov-2016 17:51

Has anybody mentioned the Tamaki opinion on earthquake causation and petition?
NZ Herald link

[Mod note: edited to shorten and activate link]

mattwnz

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# 1673036 17-Nov-2016 18:18

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Is it worth wasting time on it?

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# 1673040 17-Nov-2016 18:23

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mattwnz:

tdgeek:

30% chance of a 7 to 7.8 in next 30 days. Alert on phone from Stuff, I assume based on revised magnitude. With 2+ active faults in play its anybodys guess

I hate how the media treat these events as clickbait. If you looked at the Geo net website, that 30% probability within 30 days has always existed from day 1.

And as days go by, the same aftershocks keep happening, the media will dig a bit lower to find the "news"

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# 1673050 17-Nov-2016 18:27

tdgeek:

And as days go by, the same aftershocks keep happening, the media will dig a bit lower to find the "news"

That's the problem. I almost get the sense they are wanting aftershocks, to get some news happening. Everytime a building is found to have an issue, it becomes a breaking headline, when in reality most are pretty minor and precautionary. The ideal thing that will happen is that we get a few more minor aftershocks and it will all die down, and Wellington will be safe from EQs for at least the next 100 years.

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# 1673051 17-Nov-2016 18:28

mattwnz:

Is it worth wasting time on it?

No, we have Trump thats enough, in fact I'd vote Trump over Mr Rich Pastor any day of the year. I heard at work today him and his wife went on a $60,000 holiday, told his masses he needed rest. He probably needed time to count his tithes

JayADee

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# 1673054 17-Nov-2016 18:34

tdgeek:
mattwnz:

Is it worth wasting time on it?

No, we have Trump thats enough, in fact I'd vote Trump over Mr Rich Pastor any day of the year. I heard at work today him and his wife went on a $60,000 holiday, told his masses he needed rest. He probably needed time to count his tithes

You mean is the petition worth signing? I don't know. But I do like watching the numbers go up!

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# 1673069 17-Nov-2016 18:47

Trump IS the rich pastor

Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.

JayADee

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# 1673073 17-Nov-2016 18:58

joker97: Trump IS the rich pastor

Yeah well as I said in the President thread, I think the popularity of both is linked.

My quote from the other thread. I recommend the article!

''I thought this was a good article explaining his appeal- What So Many People Don’t Get About the U.S. Working Class
Joan C. Williams
Link: https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class ''

Edit and I just flicked to the news again and it seems every few hours another building in Wellington is evacuated.

Rikkitic

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# 1673076 17-Nov-2016 19:02

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

Is it worth wasting time on it?

No, we have Trump thats enough, in fact I'd vote Trump over Mr Rich Pastor any day of the year. I heard at work today him and his wife went on a $60,000 holiday, told his masses he needed rest. He probably needed time to count his tithes

Mr Garrison, who won the election on Southpark, has promised to F everybody in the A. Maybe he could start with Tamaki.

I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney

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