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551 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1676918 24-Nov-2016 18:36
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tdgeek:

 

Bit of a worry

 

West Coast warned to prepare for possible massive aftershock

 

Short story is that aftershock frequency has dropped, potentially building up. West Coast has had many small quakes all of a sudden in an aaa they take a keen interest in, I assume Alpine Fault related.

 

 

Judging by the quality of click bait headlines and BS reports that New Shub is providing, I'd take anything they say with a grain of salt.

 

They've been twisting the words of anyone they interview and sensationalising everything.

 

Doesn't hurt to be prepared though.  We live on a fault line after all.





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  Reply # 1676920 24-Nov-2016 18:43
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I am also getting sick of the click bait type announcements that these newspaper companies are pumping out. One recent one today was that 3 council buildings were going to be demolished after the Earthquakes. However when then reading the story, all buildings are empty and just owned by the council, so not used by the council. 2 are going to be demolished anyway to make way for a new movie museum. While the third is an old church that is unused since the 2013 quakes, and has been further damaged.

 

 

 

I almost get the sense they are wanting a big EQ to occur, or spread the word that a big aftershock is coming soon, so they can keep this story alive. If it happens it happens, but even the experts can't tell you much more.


 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1676923 24-Nov-2016 18:56
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Ouch!  It was a small article, ALL about Civil Defence West Coast, and why, I don't see that as clickbait at all. 


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1676939 24-Nov-2016 19:39
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 It's telling that both Geonet and MCDEM both tweeted that they do not issue quake warnings, only forecasts and scenarios.





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  Reply # 1676940 24-Nov-2016 19:46
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mattwnz:

 

I am also getting sick of the click bait type announcements that these newspaper companies are pumping out. One recent one today was that 3 council buildings were going to be demolished after the Earthquakes. However when then reading the story, all buildings are empty and just owned by the council, so not used by the council. 2 are going to be demolished anyway to make way for a new movie museum. While the third is an old church that is unused since the 2013 quakes, and has been further damaged.

 

 

 

I almost get the sense they are wanting a big EQ to occur, or spread the word that a big aftershock is coming soon, so they can keep this story alive. If it happens it happens, but even the experts can't tell you much more.

 

 

 

 

They want the Capital moved to Auckland to prop up the falling (beginning to) house prices.

 

Large numbers of people are actually leaving Auckland..so its time to pick on Wellington.


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  Reply # 1676953 24-Nov-2016 20:03
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geoffwnz: Judging by the quality of click bait headlines and BS reports that New Shub is providing, I'd take anything they say with a grain of salt. 

 

Glad I'm not the only one that calls it that. I'm still not sure what a Shub actually is though.


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  Reply # 1676980 24-Nov-2016 20:16
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Dratsab:

 

geoffwnz: Judging by the quality of click bait headlines and BS reports that New Shub is providing, I'd take anything they say with a grain of salt. 

 

Glad I'm not the only one that calls it that. I'm still not sure what a Shub actually is though.

 

 

Isn't it the thing that has a shower over the bath tub?





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  Reply # 1676981 24-Nov-2016 20:17
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So how is it clickbait??

 

The media hasn't made it up. It was released by West Coast Civil Defence, and while it may be unwise, premature, etc, its hardly clickbait.

 

Had Stuff worded the CD words in a way to attract clicks and residence, then yes. But in todays current environment, its about the topic not about the internet marketing machine for websites


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  Reply # 1677240 25-Nov-2016 09:39
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tdgeek:

 

Ouch!  It was a small article, ALL about Civil Defence West Coast, and why, I don't see that as clickbait at all. 

 

 

It's now being reported that West Coast Civil Defence has retracted immediately its "urgent" warning it issued cautioning of a possible "large aftershock" striking the region.

 

So you get two stories for the price of one: there IS a possibility of a large aftershock and now there ISN'T a possibility of that!

 

Perhaps West Coast Civil Defence have friends in the media because it is an interesting story that raises a lot of issues. For example, how could such a warning ever have been approved in the first place? Is there any scientific credibility in the claim? If not, then why is West Coast Civil Defence taking matters into their own hands without consulting with their superiors and the scientific experts?


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  Reply # 1677245 25-Nov-2016 09:47
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frednz:

 

tdgeek:

 

Ouch!  It was a small article, ALL about Civil Defence West Coast, and why, I don't see that as clickbait at all. 

 

 

It's now being reported that West Coast Civil Defence has retracted immediately its "urgent" warning it issued cautioning of a possible "large aftershock" striking the region.

 

So you get two stories for the price of one: there IS a possibility of a large aftershock and now there ISN'T a possibility of that!

 

Perhaps West Coast Civil Defence have friends in the media because it is an interesting story that raises a lot of issues. For example, how could such a warning ever have been approved in the first place? Is there any scientific credibility in the claim? If not, then why is West Coast Civil Defence taking matters into their own hands without consulting with their superiors and the scientific experts?

 

 

When I read it, it didnt come across as an urgent warning. As to credibility, it seemed fine, in that there has been a sudden drop in aftershocks (which tends to indicate a building up of stress as its "stuck") and that there has been a sudden increase in EQ activity in the Arthurs Pass region that is monitored closely. All of which seems perfectly reasonable. But its not clickbait, and the back track is someone got upset. Off course it should have been run past Geonet and the heads of CD, and could have been worded better. But it all seems a bandwagon issue to me, everyone jumping on what was originally a few concerns. Nothing to do with the media




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  Reply # 1677256 25-Nov-2016 10:05
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CD have removed the warning. It appears that someone at CD was reading too much into the significance of a cluster of aftershocks closer to the main divide.
I've read some comments that the M7.8 and subsequent sequence haven't transferred stress to the Alpine Fault, also an off the cuff comment that although that fault is loaded up at about its average return period, if the point where it's locked was ready to let go, then it's had two large M7.8 events at each end and shaking from the Chch quake in the middle over the past decade which might have been expected to trigger it. But it hasn't been triggered - so perhaps it isn't as ready to let rip as some have been thinking. Hope that's not famous last words.
There is evidence that past Alpine Fault events were accompanied by near simultaneous events large enough to cause tsunami in Cook Strait. That could be a scenario if the fault ruptures North.

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  Reply # 1677412 25-Nov-2016 13:36
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Had a look at Queensgate this morning, the car park is open on 3 levels but only as far along as the 1st up-ramp.

 

Were not many shoppers there, JB Hifi unusually quiet.

 

Pretty bad news about Event Cinemas and the carpark under it as the Hutt City Council are saying it should be demolished. That section of the mall is only roughly 10 years old also.


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  Reply # 1677413 25-Nov-2016 13:37
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DjShadow:

 

Pretty bad news about Event Cinemas and the carpark under it as the Hutt City Council are saying it should be demolished. That section of the mall is only roughly 10 years old also.

 

 

That's disgraceful in my opinion. No building built in the last 10 years should be broken so badly on a earthquakee this size. I wonder if there are legal ramifications.

 

 


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  Reply # 1677426 25-Nov-2016 13:48
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Pumpedd:

 

mattwnz:

 

I am also getting sick of the click bait type announcements that these newspaper companies are pumping out. One recent one today was that 3 council buildings were going to be demolished after the Earthquakes. However when then reading the story, all buildings are empty and just owned by the council, so not used by the council. 2 are going to be demolished anyway to make way for a new movie museum. While the third is an old church that is unused since the 2013 quakes, and has been further damaged.

 

 

 

I almost get the sense they are wanting a big EQ to occur, or spread the word that a big aftershock is coming soon, so they can keep this story alive. If it happens it happens, but even the experts can't tell you much more.

 

 

 

 

They want the Capital moved to Auckland to prop up the falling (beginning to) house prices.

 

Large numbers of people are actually leaving Auckland..so its time to pick on Wellington.

 

 

 

 

You do always have to read between the lines with the media in NZ, and they do have a huge influence on the public. For some, a large amount of their income stream appears to be from property adverts and agents, although you would hope that wouldn't influence stories.

 

The seems to be quite a move in them looking at moving the capital away from Wellington, due to the EQ risks. But to do that would be in the multi billions of dollars, as they wouldn't do it cheaply. I think the only time it should be looked at, is after a big quake, if the buildings are so damaged that they can't be repaired. But they are probably the safest  buildings in NZ, as they had huge amounts of money base isolating them. I hadn't heard there has been any damage to them either. But even Auckland could have a big earthquake. Even Rotoruas main museum building looks to have been badly damaged in this last quake according to the media, and you wouldn't think that being as far as it was, it would have been affected.


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  Reply # 1677429 25-Nov-2016 13:57
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DjShadow:

 

Pretty bad news about Event Cinemas and the carpark under it as the Hutt City Council are saying it should be demolished. That section of the mall is only roughly 10 years old also.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am quite familiar with that building, and am surprised to hear that. It is an odd design, as you have two levels of car parks, and then the cinema above it, so had a lot of weight at the top of the structure. So it relies on big steel bracing frames below the cinema to provide the lateral support. Apparently that mall is made up of over 10 buildings. Some of the mall is actually a lot older than 10 years, as some of the existing structure was reused when it was redeveloped, although I think the older parts are on the other side of the mall from the cinema.

 

 

 

It does seem that due to the forces of this quake buildings between 3-15 stories have been affected the worst. Shorter and taller buildings seem to have performed quite well.


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