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  Reply # 1670694 14-Nov-2016 13:17
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Fred99:

MikeB4:

Really, let's wait until the dust settles before we grand stand


 


I was waiting for the defender of the status quo to arrive.


Last time I pointed out that the tsunami warning system was an abject failure you defended them vehemently.  What excuses do you offer as spokesperson for them this time?



*sigh* not playing, sorry




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The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

 Mac user, Windows curser, Chrome OS desired.

 

A Tiger in Africa, probably escaped from the Zoo.

 

 


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  Reply # 1670727 14-Nov-2016 13:39
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Preliminary M6.7 a couple of minutes ago just north of Cheviot apparently.  Was a good long slow wobble here in Chch.

 

 

 

Edit: revised down after review to M6.4.


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  Reply # 1670778 14-Nov-2016 14:16
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GNS have done some preliminary statistical modeling for aftershock sequence probability.
Do take care people - be prepared.

 

 

Also:

 

 

Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) from Ward: closest instruments near the epicentre

 

Ward recorded 1.2g Peak Ground Acceleration. Ward is the closest equipment location (25 kilometres from the epicentre), that we have. For reference, the 22 February 2011 M6.2 Christchurch Earthquake was a PGA 2.2g.

 

 

That 2.2g reading in Chch was from a strong motion detector only a km or so from the epicentre.
I think (without checking) that by 25km that would have dropped to 1.2g or less.  

 

Probably stating the obvious here a bit, but as well as being large magnitude, the severity of shaking close to the epicentre of the Culverden (now renamed "the Kaikoura" quake?) was very severe by world standards.


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  Reply # 1670784 14-Nov-2016 14:28
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From what I read on The Spinoff the table of probabilities above applies to future events with an epicentre in North Canterbury, Marlborough, Kaikoura Coast or Cook Strait.

 

So, if there is a 32% probability of a magnitude 7+ in the next 30 days then I wonder what the probability is of it being in Cook Strait. It sounds like there is a very real possibility of Wellington getting a complete thrashing in the next few weeks.


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  Reply # 1670786 14-Nov-2016 14:29
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my Fiancé is heading home for some sleep, but is expected to be back at work around 10pm.

 

As above stay safe people and keep alert, this may not be over by a long shot.




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  Reply # 1670789 14-Nov-2016 14:45
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alasta:

 

From what I read on The Spinoff the table of probabilities above applies to future events with an epicentre in North Canterbury, Marlborough, Kaikoura Coast or Cook Strait.

 

So, if there is a 32% probability of a magnitude 7+ in the next 30 days then I wonder what the probability is of it being in Cook Strait. It sounds like there is a very real possibility of Wellington getting a complete thrashing in the next few weeks.

 

 

 

 

I expect it's probably quite a high enough probability to take immediate action if a strong long duration shake is felt and you're on an exposed coast etc - don't wait for official response, evacuate and wait for official information that it's safe before returning.

 

The GNS faults database doesn't show faults in Cook Strait (why not?).

 

The Wellington Quake Live site maps does.

 

It's quite a large rectangle on the map on the image I posted from GNS above, it covers a wide region.  I expect that aftershock activity would continue to be centred nearer the site of the mainshock - but I'm alarmed by how much activity is well to the North. I am not an expert though - so don't be alarmed by what I say.  It also looks like some of that apparent activity to the North is from the fault that caused the Seddon quakes a couple of years ago becoming "re-energised" and nothing bad will happen in that area.

 

Anything is possible, a quake of M7.5 or so can trigger quakes that were "ready to let rip" hundreds of km away, then there's also stress transfer to local adjacent/interconnected faults, as we found out in Chch.

 

 

 

The aftershocks so far:

 

 

 


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  Reply # 1670829 14-Nov-2016 15:26
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Geektastic:

 

 

 

When I was in the US in July, we had storms in New York. I was roaming on VF and all of a sudden my mobile started making a noise it had never made before (sort of alarmed wailing!) and I had 'Priority Messages' warning of flash floods. 

 

Their system just seems to take over any and all mobiles and force them to show the warnings and make the noises.

 

Do we have that here, and if not, why not?

 

 

No one knows the answer to this?






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  Reply # 1670831 14-Nov-2016 15:29
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Was due in WLG this morning for a workshop - got the cancellation text at 6AM while waiting for my flight.

 

Still on to go to CHCH tomorrow - unless something major happens.

 

WLG on Friday - will see if our offices are open by then.


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  Reply # 1670833 14-Nov-2016 15:32
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Geektastic:

 

 

 

No one knows the answer to this?

 

 

Far as I know, we don't. Christ knows why not.

 

I believe that Japan has a similar system too, as they get a s***load of big quakes.

 

I did hear that during a recent technology upgrade of the Mt Victoria tunnel in Wellington, they can broadcast warning messages onto any radio frequency your car radio is tuned into while you're in the tunnel. That's a clever idea.


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  Reply # 1670840 14-Nov-2016 15:45
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Geektastic:

 

Geektastic:

 

 

 

 

 

When I was in the US in July, we had storms in New York. I was roaming on VF and all of a sudden my mobile started making a noise it had never made before (sort of alarmed wailing!) and I had 'Priority Messages' warning of flash floods. 

 

Their system just seems to take over any and all mobiles and force them to show the warnings and make the noises.

 

Do we have that here, and if not, why not?

 

 

 

 

No one knows the answer to this?

 

 

 

 

Japan also have the same system. The Civil Defence system here is governed by councils. There is also a Government one that is nation wide that will spring in when multiple councils are hit to coordinate efforts when required.

 

Auckland for example used a service called cloudm to send out emergency broadcasts to phones using push notifications this was replaced earlier this year with the Red Cross app as other councils went on to this as it was provided free of charge.

 

The other problem with the Priority Messages is that it is short and as such could lead to more confusion. Where as with an app you can deliver more information to people. The only problem is that it uses cell service so if the internet goes so does any notification but chances are in that case so will Priority Messages.





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  Reply # 1670841 14-Nov-2016 15:45
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DarthKermit:

 

Geektastic:

 

 

 

No one knows the answer to this?

 

 

Far as I know, we don't. Christ knows why not.

 

I believe that Japan has a similar system too, as they get a s***load of big quakes.

 

I did hear that during a recent technology upgrade of the Mt Victoria tunnel in Wellington, they can broadcast warning messages onto any radio frequency your car radio is tuned into while you're in the tunnel. That's a clever idea.

 

 

 

 

There's an apparent fundamental problem which needs to be sorted before say an SMS warning system was put in place.

 

Who makes the decision to send a message out, and how do they decide?

 

My posts are rather critical, but I was sitting here waiting for more than two hours before my local tsunami alarm system was activated.  It was too late - the (fortunately small) waves were already here.

 

A SMS or any other technical/communication system doesn't solve that problem.

 

SMS is probably a good way to do it though.  So is a $10 battery radio - but the radio stations didn't know WTF was going on or what "the official response" was either.


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  Reply # 1670843 14-Nov-2016 15:52
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geocom:

 

Geektastic:

 

Geektastic:

 

 

 

 

 

When I was in the US in July, we had storms in New York. I was roaming on VF and all of a sudden my mobile started making a noise it had never made before (sort of alarmed wailing!) and I had 'Priority Messages' warning of flash floods. 

 

Their system just seems to take over any and all mobiles and force them to show the warnings and make the noises.

 

Do we have that here, and if not, why not?

 

 

 

 

No one knows the answer to this?

 

 

 

 

Japan also have the same system. The Civil Defence system here is governed by councils. There is also a Government one that is nation wide that will spring in when multiple councils are hit to coordinate efforts when required.

 

Auckland for example used a service called cloudm to send out emergency broadcasts to phones using push notifications this was replaced earlier this year with the Red Cross app as other councils went on to this as it was provided free of charge.

 

The other problem with the Priority Messages is that it is short and as such could lead to more confusion. Where as with an app you can deliver more information to people. The only problem is that it uses cell service so if the internet goes so does any notification but chances are in that case so will Priority Messages.

 

 

 

 

Seems to me that a warning system for the nation ought not to be governed by councils. That sounds like what the Americans would call a Federal matter to me.






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  Reply # 1670845 14-Nov-2016 15:56
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Geektastic: 

 

Seems to me that a warning system for the nation ought not to be governed by councils. That sounds like what the Americans would call a Federal matter to me.

 

 

 

 

Tell that to Florida 





Geoff E

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