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634 posts

Ultimate Geek


  # 1779402 11-May-2017 04:49
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tdgeek:

 

Being out of work would need to be considered normal, given that automation and software will manage many many things. But people need an income, as cashflow is the oil of an economy. Say a company today has 100 employees, tomorrow it may have 3, but it still needs to contribute to that same wage pool. There needs to be a restructure of the distribution of wealth. Maybe the 95% unemployment will mean we work 4 weeks a year instead of having 4 weeks a year on holiday. Fewer skills may be needed by workers. Some may opt for a business they can still run. There still would need to be a desire to make money, get rich, allow driven people to create products and ideas for everyone.

 

There could also be the widening of haves and havenots (workers/business people and non workers) creating a two level society.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is the trillion dollar question brilliant minds and economists, the IMF and central banks are trying to figure out. Finding a new way to still have an economy, or more specifically cashflow so that all are still encouraged to participate for the so called greater good (rather than greater greed), but only after they discover trying to fix the current system with the same ideas that broke it in the first place (realising letting go of capitalism would hurt their own control over money) repeated doesn't work.

 

Except they wont need to figure out how to do this with something like Bitcoin taking over. Until they change the law to ban it because it's not profitable for them in the transition from old thinking and capitalism in to new thinking with limited resources for consumption.

 

I think we'll eventually shift to a resource based economy, not an infinitely expanding one based on consumption of resources (that aren't infinitely replaceable).

 

I think the key thing would be de-monitising housing, food, transport, and basic requirement for people to work 5-10 hours a week for this in order to have these things. The basics in life should be worked for, with no money in return to "choose" what to spend it on. It's a given, you need food, housing, transport. health care etc... so doing a few hours in one of those fields should be mandatory for no pay. We don't need 40 hour work weeks, you can provide these with minimal amount of real work for real renewable resources and largely automated.

 

However, it depends who you vote for. Some political parties don't want a government, they want assets sold off and all privatised or monitised so that someone can still "own" and control those under it and ultimately power over another human beings materialism store (so you can have more and them less). This scares the geebee's out of capitalists the mere thought of it. So they slap a word like socialism or communism on it and give it stigma like it would be a bad thing. Even though in reality a balance of the two is needed, something that's currently on a broken scale and why the big gap between rich and poor.

 

I see it as a cycle the current economy though, as with everything that repeats, we might start a new economy one day soon because we have to after another depression or trading glitch. Just as money transfers from one to another, backwards and forwards from commodities and paper assets etc... those not learning about these cycles get poorer, those that do, get all the wealth that transfers when those markets swing around... some sell and loose, others buy and win.

 

But out current system, especially public schooling (private is on the other side of the divide) , is designed to produce good workers for companies. Most of which sell crap that no one really needs but are told this is how success is measured in life. While private schools and rich kids get an education from the other side of the fence that 99% won't learn.

 

In a new economy, humans can go back to discovering whatever might come along... the same way they did electricity and other great useful things nature provides but no one has the time or money under capitalism to stop and experiment and discover something as ground breaking as that in the past. I don't believe the best cure for cancer will come from a lab that's funded, It'll come from someone with an interest in biology mucking around in the spare time- as with most great inventions of the past.


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Ultimate Geek


  # 1779403 11-May-2017 04:59
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But sticking with the OP's more direct things mentioned... it'll happen. The mentality of less ownership and more efficiency is a given. Trumps struggling with his capitalist mind over this. That's why they want to drill drill drill, forget climate talks and clean energy.  You can't get greedy with that.

 

Automation, yep, in 20 years the world will change hugely in this. Employment, yep, it'll change hugely in this too because of it. The economy will certainly be different, there's no choice because of technology.

 

You won't own your car, you won't own, well, much apart from a home and whatever you trade for goods you create rather than what a company patents and takes most of the wealth from if you were it's employee that came up with it.

 

Just think... your work week not being the same each day. A life of possibilities if you didn't have to worry about housing, food, transport, health (as much). Free to be creative and mind your own life, not hire it out for someone else's benefit beyond the necessities of life if you choose not to. I think a drop in that kind of stress would only even add way more to life spans, and ultimately better health in its self. Less knees and hips being replaced for a lot of repetitive work for minimal wages for some.

 

It'll be a self fulfilling prophecy and some sense, as soon as the ball gets big enough it can't be stopped.

 

It's a good thing, the future and all the points in the original post. I don't think someone will have the "right" answer for this one. It will happen, and we'll figure out how to 'measure' and manipulate it in the process as with all things that involve change.


 
 
 
 


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  # 1779413 11-May-2017 08:32
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If people's basic physical needs are taken care of cheaply (or even completely without obligation), it seems to me that this would create huge opportunities for "entrepreneurship". When there's little/no downside (in terms of starvation, health, etc for you or your family) to "risking everything" on a new venture, then I expect lots of people would be prepared to take that risk.

 

 


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  # 1779641 11-May-2017 13:47
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A lot of industries have already changed. Look at cabinet making for one example. 15 years ago you had tradesmen on tools cutting timber. These days it's all done by CNC machining. Sign-writing. Car manufacturing is another. Sure, you still need a few warm bodies to assemble some bits, but most is done by machine.

 

 

 

Strangely, Iraq almost had a "universal income".

 

Most people had a "govt position", which basically meant doing next to nothing except show up, but it worked. Factories were owned by the govt, everything was to an extent.

 

Then George W sent Paul Bremer out to oversee ("privatise") the country after the war in 2003.

 

He disbanded the army (that had been warned to "abandon their positions, return to their homes, and await further instructions" by the invading US army), "de-ba'ath'd" the civil service, including teachers who, mostly, were only in the Ba'ath party because if they weren't, they didn't have a job).

 

Nobody could afford anything, so the factories shut down. He tried leasing them to westerners (it was an international war crime for an occupying country to sell them), but who wants a factory when nobody has the money to buy things?

 

Funnily enough, the only industry the US protected during all this was the oil industry.

 

And what became of all the upset soldiers, factory workers, and head Ba'athists? They got angry with the US for wrecking their cushy lives and families, and became insurgents. 

 

There's obviously a bit more to it, like the fact various small groups fought each other now that nobody had pride in being "Iraqi" any more, and that escalated some things into ISIS.

 

 

 

 

 

So what I'm basically saying is.. What happens if only some countries have a "universal wage", but also something that another, more powerful country wants?

 

There's always going to be greedy people that want it all.


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  # 1779690 11-May-2017 14:59
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IMO some of the views expressed here are rose tinted by living in comfortable ol' NZ.

 

I don't see automation ever benefiting someone living in a s**t hole in say Mexico City or Somalia.

 

The basic problem is that we actually need a helluva lot less humans.

 

 


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  # 1779746 11-May-2017 16:39
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SJB:

 

The basic problem is that we actually need a helluva lot less humans.

 

 

Realistically, we don't *need* many (most?) of the people working *now*. Entertainers (sportspeople, actors, musicians, artists in general), are obvious examples. And all the support people (doctors, physios, ticket sellers, security, managers, agents, roadies) involved in those industries. Probably also the tourism industry... cruise lines, travel agents, tour guides, a fair number of hotels/motels, large chunks of the airline industry, most rental cars. Pleasure boats, baches at the beach, planes and gliders, motor homes... all unnecessary things that people spend money on.

 

Why are those completely unproductive (in terms of food production and manufacturing) entertainers amongst the highest paid in the world? Why do people pay $50K or whatever it is to climb Mt Everest? It's completely unproductive.

 

So I don't think it's anything to with "need". It's more to do with "want". People will pay for what they want. So, providing what someone wants but can't get from a machine (because you'll be able to get anything made by a machine cheaply and readily) will be where the money is. And where the jobs are.

 

Another income stream (and we see plenty of this today) will be in finding a way to prevent people getting what they want, and then making them pay for you to provide it. I'm primarily thinking of IP law here, but cornering the market in avocados or whatever would also work.

 

And it doesn't matter much where people get their money from... whether they work for it, or win it by Lotto, or get given a chunk of cash free every week (by the Govt or their doting parents), in the end it's just a way of comparing economic value.

 

 


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  # 1779777 11-May-2017 17:18
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Some supposedly serious and knowledgeable people have suggested  that robots are the next stage of human evolution. I doubt they will care about weekends at the beach so when Skynet takes over, work and income won't matter much anyway.

 

 





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  # 1779849 11-May-2017 19:55
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Rikkitic:

 

Some supposedly serious and knowledgeable people have suggested  that robots are the next stage of human evolution. I doubt they will care about weekends at the beach so when Skynet takes over, work and income won't matter much anyway.

 

 

 

 

Which brings us back to square one. When automation does a lot of the work, we can relax, enjoy leisure. But we need an income. So we can enjoy the fruits of a few thousand years labour and discoveries. Human evolution? Yes, why not. The evolution is that we have created things that do things for us. But the gap from no work = no pay needs to be plugged. Moved from another sector of what is the same economy. 


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  # 1779884 11-May-2017 21:32
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You need a lot of leisure activities to fill 12 hours a day, 7 days a week for 80 maybe 90 years.

 

I think a large proportion of humanity would get very bored very quickly especially as we seem to be breeding humans now with extremely short attention spans.

 

 

 

 


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  # 1779886 11-May-2017 21:42
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^^^ The Matrix is gonna need a lot of human batteries to power it. wink


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  # 1779962 12-May-2017 07:01
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SJB:

 

You need a lot of leisure activities to fill 12 hours a day, 7 days a week for 80 maybe 90 years.

 

 

I think the trick will be to make leisure activities into work... again, professional sports is an example. They work very hard at something that is in reality a leisure activity.

 

Perhaps it should be a requirement that *everyone* gets at least one entry in the Guinness Book of World Records?

 

 




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  # 1779963 12-May-2017 07:05
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SJB:

 

You need a lot of leisure activities to fill 12 hours a day, 7 days a week for 80 maybe 90 years.

 

I think a large proportion of humanity would get very bored very quickly especially as we seem to be breeding humans now with extremely short attention spans.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sport

 

Fitness

 

Family

 

Social activities

 

Home maintenance

 

Home improvements

 

Friends

 

Travel or sightseeing

 

Relaxation as there is now no time pressure

 

 

 

Many things that work interrupts.


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  # 1779979 12-May-2017 08:11
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  # 1780415 12-May-2017 21:51
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It's the shareholders who will benefit the most


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  # 1781873 14-May-2017 11:47
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Here's a reality check for those that think pilotless aircraft are just around the corner.

 

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11855756 





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