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484 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1845352 11-Aug-2017 19:52
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shk292:

 

frednz:

 

It seems to me that NZ's total emissions will drop only if Government policy gets right in behind the efforts of individuals to do this! For example, when are we going to ban the import of petrol vehicles?

 

 

For many reasons which have been reiterated many times in this and other posts, the exclusion of ICE vehicles from NZ is not practical now (or for quite a few years) without imposing severe constraints on NZers' lifestyle.  I would suggest such a ban would be good for a party that is tired of being in government

 

 

But don't you think a target date could be set by the Government for the exclusion of ICE vehicles as has been done by some other countries? This article discusses the merits of this idea.


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  Reply # 1845357 11-Aug-2017 20:02
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frednz:

 

But don't you think a target date could be set by the Government for the exclusion of ICE vehicles as has been done by some other countries? This article discusses the merits of this idea.

 

 

No, I think that's meaningless.  Trying to predict in advance when all the technical, cultural and financial implications will be adequately addressed is futile.  Much easier in a densely populated country in a densely populated region like Europe or Singapore.  Plus, we're a relatively poor country when it comes to overseas currency to spend on vehicles (as you'll know if you've ever visited western Europe and seen the cars driven there).


 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1845362 11-Aug-2017 20:13
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If EVs are as good as they're cracked up to be then targets won't be required as people will want to move to then without compulsion. I don't think that's too far off...

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  Reply # 1845366 11-Aug-2017 20:18
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Actually it won't? be necessary to regulate import of ICE cars. This is one case where the market will work: it is predicted that by 2025 manufacturers will stop making ICE cars because electrics are far cheaper, simpler, and hence potentially more profitable.
http://www.afr.com/business/energy/oil/petrol-cars-will-vanish-in-8-years-says-us-report-from-stanford-economist-20170514-gw4r0u

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  Reply # 1845368 11-Aug-2017 20:23
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Yes switching from coal to gas is an improvement, but it's still one of the dirtiest forms of electricity production. From 7:00pm to 7:30pm this evening, gas was only 12% of NZ's total electricity generation, but it accounted for 55% of emissions (CO2e).

We discussed EVs quite heavily last semester in my environmental economics paper. We had to analyse a hypothetical proposal that all new vehicles sold after 2025 must be electric vehicles. I'm most likely voting Green this election, but after doing my research, I wouldn't support a ban on fossil fuel vehicles.

The great thing about NZ is, our electricity production is fairly clean, so a shift to EV will actually reduce emissions. Whereas in places like Sydney, they're promoting the use of EVs, but burning loads of coal to fuel them...

Edit: another thing to consider with EVs is the rebound effect. Suddenly your car is cheaper to run, so you end up using it much more than you used to.


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  Reply # 1845373 11-Aug-2017 20:30
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frednz:

 

 

 

But don't you think a target date could be set by the Government for the exclusion of ICE vehicles as has been done by some other countries? This article discusses the merits of this idea.

 

 

I think it is a good idea, the government should announce that NZ will ban the sale of new fossil fuel burners by 2035.

 

Of course this would only be valuable as a signal to manufacturers.  Unless we actually went ahead and created the necessary regulations then it would be all talk.  But announcing the target would have a benefit in that it would provide a clear indication of what the government would like to see.

 

I suspect that by 2040 there will be no sales of new fossil fuel burners, regardless of legislation or lack thereof.  By then electric vehicles will be cheaper and have all the range they need, there will be charging stations everywhere and there will be so many electric cars on the road that the general public will accept them as normal cars.

 

Naturally there will always be a small group that likes the sound of a grunty engine, but many petrol heads will realise that the noisy cars are the slow cars and the quiet electric cars are the fast ones.  Some 'boy racers' will stick with noisy fossil fuel burners, but many others will switch to fast and fun EVs.

 

Much will change over the next couple of decades with new battery tech (maybe the solid state batteries if that tech works out) which will see increased performance, longer lifespans for the batteries (solid state batteries should last the life of the car and more), cheaper prices, longer range, quicker charging, etc.  Already many buyers over the last 10 years have accepted quiet cars with petrol cars that you can barely hear coming, EVs are just another small step quieter.

 

The recent rise of EVs has lead to major car manufacturers budgeting billions of dollars to EV development, with all the money that is going to be spent on EVs there is finally the impetus required to make it VERY worthwhile to pour money into developing better batteries - this is the one element that will make all the difference.  With possible new batteries like solid state and metal-air batteries there will be some major developments over the next few decades.


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  Reply # 1845384 11-Aug-2017 21:00
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kryptonjohn: If EVs are as good as they're cracked up to be then targets won't be required as people will want to move to then without compulsion. I don't think that's too far off...

 

Yes, they will be rare, a novelty but soon most people will have more knowledge about them, then more and more, it will self feed. Word of mouth, in the news and so on. 




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  Reply # 1845386 11-Aug-2017 21:06
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MarkH67:

 

frednz:

 

 

 

But don't you think a target date could be set by the Government for the exclusion of ICE vehicles as has been done by some other countries? This article discusses the merits of this idea.

 

 

I think it is a good idea, the government should announce that NZ will ban the sale of new fossil fuel burners by 2035.

 

Of course this would only be valuable as a signal to manufacturers.  Unless we actually went ahead and created the necessary regulations then it would be all talk.  But announcing the target would have a benefit in that it would provide a clear indication of what the government would like to see.

 

I suspect that by 2040 there will be no sales of new fossil fuel burners, regardless of legislation or lack thereof.  By then electric vehicles will be cheaper and have all the range they need, there will be charging stations everywhere and there will be so many electric cars on the road that the general public will accept them as normal cars.

 

Naturally there will always be a small group that likes the sound of a grunty engine, but many petrol heads will realise that the noisy cars are the slow cars and the quiet electric cars are the fast ones.  Some 'boy racers' will stick with noisy fossil fuel burners, but many others will switch to fast and fun EVs.

 

Much will change over the next couple of decades with new battery tech (maybe the solid state batteries if that tech works out) which will see increased performance, longer lifespans for the batteries (solid state batteries should last the life of the car and more), cheaper prices, longer range, quicker charging, etc.  Already many buyers over the last 10 years have accepted quiet cars with petrol cars that you can barely hear coming, EVs are just another small step quieter.

 

The recent rise of EVs has lead to major car manufacturers budgeting billions of dollars to EV development, with all the money that is going to be spent on EVs there is finally the impetus required to make it VERY worthwhile to pour money into developing better batteries - this is the one element that will make all the difference.  With possible new batteries like solid state and metal-air batteries there will be some major developments over the next few decades.

 

 

I think there is a lot of merit in what you say above. Of course, there is always the skeptic's view from none other than Joe Bennett:

 

"But now, so very suddenly, the electric motor is in vogue.

 

Government ministers around the world compete to boast of how soon their national fleet will be wholly and greenly electric. By 2050, says one. Ha, says another, we shall be all humming and virtuous by 2040.

 

Curiously, New Zealand has not joined the chorus.

 

Even though we have to import our petrol and even though we have vents to the steaming heart of the earth from which to generate electricity, along with wind and sun and water in abundance, the latest projection for New Zealand is that by 2040 the proportion of our cars that are electric will have soared to 8 per cent.

 

‚ÄčOf course. the boastful ministers of elsewhere aren't really making predictions. They know that they'll be dead or gaga by the time 2040 comes round, so they'll never be held to account. And besides, no one will remember what they said. They're just tossing a date out to gratify the zeitgeist that is desperate for any form of optimism. For we are drenched in gloom."

 

By the way, I hope the proportion of cars that are electric in NZ by 2040 is higher than 8%!

 

I hope the planet can stand at least another 20 or 30 years of relatively high greenhouse gas emissions? Perhaps we're already too late in moving to EVs? Me thinks that when I buy my little Nissan Leaf it won't make that much difference to global warming, but at least I'll feel I've done my thing for the planet!


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Master Geek
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  Reply # 1845394 11-Aug-2017 21:29
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frednz:

 

 

 

I hope the planet can stand at least another 20 or 30 years of relatively high greenhouse gas emissions? Perhaps we're already too late in moving to EVs? Me thinks that when I buy my little Nissan Leaf it won't make that much difference to global warming, but at least I'll feel I've done my thing for the planet!

 

 

You changing to an EV wont do much, me changing to an EV wont do much, but everyone (including you & I) changing to EVs definitely will do a lot even though there are plenty of other things that also need to be done.  It is worth noting that both China and India are pushing for a large uptake in EVs, with their populations there is a lot to be gained.


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  Reply # 1845452 12-Aug-2017 00:35
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 Im all in favour of more EVs. But I don't want to see NZ ban the importing of ICE cars. Reason - if you restrict the availability of something, it goes up in value. This is already happening due to the standards around what models of ICE cars you are currently allowed to import. Also NZ banning or not banning ICE cars is not going to change the production plans of any large car company.

 

There will always remain a few people driving ICE cars. Long after everyone else has gone electric. Just look at horses as an example. It has been over 100 years since the motorcar was invented. But people still own horses, ride horses and race horses. Yet virtually no one uses horses just as a primary means of transport. It will be the same with ICE cars.

 

 






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  Reply # 1845465 12-Aug-2017 07:51
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Aredwood:

 

 Im all in favour of more EVs. But I don't want to see NZ ban the importing of ICE cars. Reason - if you restrict the availability of something, it goes up in value. This is already happening due to the standards around what models of ICE cars you are currently allowed to import. Also NZ banning or not banning ICE cars is not going to change the production plans of any large car company.

 

There will always remain a few people driving ICE cars. Long after everyone else has gone electric. Just look at horses as an example. It has been over 100 years since the motorcar was invented. But people still own horses, ride horses and race horses. Yet virtually no one uses horses just as a primary means of transport. It will be the same with ICE cars.

 

 

 

 

Agree. The demand for EV depends on the market forces. Purchase price, charging costs, range fetish, etc. And while a small few will buy for green reasons, people are people, they will buy when its worth their while financially. Putting a date in the sand is pure guesswork. That will sort itself out as ICE demand slows, unit prices increase due to lower production runs. People and car manufacturers will deal with it


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  Reply # 1845545 12-Aug-2017 12:55
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Aredwood:

 

 Im all in favour of more EVs. But I don't want to see NZ ban the importing of ICE cars. Reason - if you restrict the availability of something, it goes up in value. This is already happening due to the standards around what models of ICE cars you are currently allowed to import. Also NZ banning or not banning ICE cars is not going to change the production plans of any large car company.

 

There will always remain a few people driving ICE cars. Long after everyone else has gone electric. Just look at horses as an example. It has been over 100 years since the motorcar was invented. But people still own horses, ride horses and race horses. Yet virtually no one uses horses just as a primary means of transport. It will be the same with ICE cars.

 

 

 

 

I would even go one further. As ICE cars become uncommon and unusual, they will acquire great value as quaint rarities, collectors' items, antiques and status symbols. With few of them on the road, the pollution they produce will no longer matter. Petrol to fuel them will be a specialty product, and at $125 per litre, Only the rich and dedicated hobbiests will drive them. They will mainly be seen at race meets on weekends, where people will pay to experience the nostalgia and novelty of burning rubber, roaring V8s, and the general silliness of such vehicles. People will pay good money to have their pictures taken sitting in a 95 Mitsubishi, or being transported to their weddings in a 2003 Hyundai. And when they break down, as machines with hundreds of moving parts inevitably do, a horse towing service will be available to pull them to the nearest transporter for transfer to the country's one remaining ICE garage in Manukau.

 

 





I reject your reality and substitute my own. - Adam Savage
 


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1845560 12-Aug-2017 13:49
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Climate change is rubbish, anyone with a half a brain can see that by looking up real stats on climate but

 

i am sure the PTB will make huge amounts off money out of it and in fact already are.

 

 

 

 





Now on 2talk Network and it's better.



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  Reply # 1845561 12-Aug-2017 13:52
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NWRT

 

 





I reject your reality and substitute my own. - Adam Savage
 


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  Reply # 1845585 12-Aug-2017 16:17
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I have removed a post and banned someone. You folks behave. You can say whatever you think but not personal attack. And if you get warned via PM don't get snarky. I don't like snarky. I'm the only one here who can be snarky.





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