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  Reply # 1843146 10-Aug-2017 06:32
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dickytim:

 

tdgeek:

 

Geektastic:

 

Given the number of very cheap cars required to keep NZers mobile (apparently) it will be very interesting to see just how electric vehicles will penetrate the market.

 

 

I guess the average car is a 60l tank? Thats circa $120. I think EV's have a 15kW battery pack. 15 x .23 is less than $4. Or at a free charger station. Range is less though

 

 

 

120 vs 4   120 vs 4  120 vs 0 and so on. 

 

Show me the money. TM Deal Or No Deal

 

 

Until the EV users need to pay their fair share for the road network they use, then the equation changes somewhat. I also don't think all of the electricity charges are present here, and a 15kw battery may not use 15kw to charge.

 

There is obviously a saving, or is there and if we say 120 x 52 = 6,240 vs 4 x 52= 208 then an EV needs to cost $6000 a year less than an ICE to make financial sense. Lets say a car has a 5 year life span then we have need the EV to only cost 30,000 more than the equivalent ICE. The math is now starting to fall apart.

 

 

Yes, RUC does need to come into it. I'm unsure how much per litre that is. But, your 5 year lifespan is low. Should you sell after 5 years, the EV will sell for more than the ICE as its a more expensive car. And the maintenance will be lower, less moving parts, less explosions in the engine. Like an ICE, buying a near new but not new EV would add a lot of value due to how new cars drop in value.

 

But yes, you will want to more than recover the extra cost, but I feel that is there plus maintenance costs


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  Reply # 1843204 10-Aug-2017 08:37
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tdgeek:

 

dickytim:

 

Until the EV users need to pay their fair share for the road network they use, then the equation changes somewhat. I also don't think all of the electricity charges are present here, and a 15kw battery may not use 15kw to charge.

 

There is obviously a saving, or is there and if we say 120 x 52 = 6,240 vs 4 x 52= 208 then an EV needs to cost $6000 a year less than an ICE to make financial sense. Lets say a car has a 5 year life span then we have need the EV to only cost 30,000 more than the equivalent ICE. The math is now starting to fall apart.

 

 

Yes, RUC does need to come into it. I'm unsure how much per litre that is. But, your 5 year lifespan is low. Should you sell after 5 years, the EV will sell for more than the ICE as its a more expensive car. And the maintenance will be lower, less moving parts, less explosions in the engine. Like an ICE, buying a near new but not new EV would add a lot of value due to how new cars drop in value.

 

But yes, you will want to more than recover the extra cost, but I feel that is there plus maintenance costs

 

 

Don't forget the batteries; they need to be thought of as a consumable. With a lifetime of perhaps 10 years and a cost of $10K, that's another $1K per year for an EV. (Yes, I'm sure there are examples that have lasted longer, and predictions that they'll last longer and be cheaper, but that's all yet to be proven). I wonder how this will affect the sales of 10-y-o EVs? I can't see anyone being keen to buy a second-hand car for say $5K when they will need to immediately spend another $10K on it. Maybe the car wrecking industry will recover batteries from crashed EVs for re-use? Maybe battery leasing will become a thing?

 

I wonder about the lower maintenance too. 

 

Autos.com's list is:

 

1. Brake Work

 

2. Oil Changes

 

3. Coolant System

 

4. Tires 

 

5. Ignition System 

 

6. Electrical System

 

7. Fuel System 

 

8. Transmission

 

9. Exhaust System

 

10. Air Conditioning System

 

I reckon that 1, 4, 6, 10 will still apply just as much to EVs. And there will no doubt be new types of EV repairs needed; computer failures and sensor replacements will affect EVs more, just because they have more computers and sensors.

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1843211 10-Aug-2017 08:46
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frankv:

 

tdgeek:

 

dickytim:

 

Until the EV users need to pay their fair share for the road network they use, then the equation changes somewhat. I also don't think all of the electricity charges are present here, and a 15kw battery may not use 15kw to charge.

 

There is obviously a saving, or is there and if we say 120 x 52 = 6,240 vs 4 x 52= 208 then an EV needs to cost $6000 a year less than an ICE to make financial sense. Lets say a car has a 5 year life span then we have need the EV to only cost 30,000 more than the equivalent ICE. The math is now starting to fall apart.

 

 

Yes, RUC does need to come into it. I'm unsure how much per litre that is. But, your 5 year lifespan is low. Should you sell after 5 years, the EV will sell for more than the ICE as its a more expensive car. And the maintenance will be lower, less moving parts, less explosions in the engine. Like an ICE, buying a near new but not new EV would add a lot of value due to how new cars drop in value.

 

But yes, you will want to more than recover the extra cost, but I feel that is there plus maintenance costs

 

 

Don't forget the batteries; they need to be thought of as a consumable. With a lifetime of perhaps 10 years and a cost of $10K, that's another $1K per year for an EV. (Yes, I'm sure there are examples that have lasted longer, and predictions that they'll last longer and be cheaper, but that's all yet to be proven). I wonder how this will affect the sales of 10-y-o EVs? I can't see anyone being keen to buy a second-hand car for say $5K when they will need to immediately spend another $10K on it. Maybe the car wrecking industry will recover batteries from crashed EVs for re-use? Maybe battery leasing will become a thing?

 

I wonder about the lower maintenance too. 

 

Autos.com's list is:

 

1. Brake Work

 

2. Oil Changes

 

3. Coolant System

 

4. Tires 

 

5. Ignition System 

 

6. Electrical System

 

7. Fuel System 

 

8. Transmission

 

9. Exhaust System

 

10. Air Conditioning System

 

I reckon that 1, 4, 6, 10 will still apply just as much to EVs. And there will no doubt be new types of EV repairs needed; computer failures and sensor replacements will affect EVs more, just because they have more computers and sensors.

 

 

 

 

Don't the batteries still retain a sound % after 10 years? Like 80?

 

Any repairs that are same as ICE and EV dont matter, thats a constant.

 

$10k for batteries, yes a good point. $20 per week. But its 10 years, you get interest, if you reverse compounded the $10k, thats probably more like $14-$15 a week. Plus they will get better and cheaper, so allow $10 per week I reckon


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  Reply # 1843217 10-Aug-2017 08:55
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Brakes should last longer as regenerative braking takes some wear off them. Electric motors last for ever. Armatures and magnets have no wear and tear and there's no brushes or commutators to wear. 

 

Add to the list above the engine oil lubrication system: filters, oil and pumps no longer needed. Same for the fuel system: no more filters and pumps.


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  Reply # 1843223 10-Aug-2017 09:03
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kryptonjohn:

 

Brakes should last longer as regenerative braking takes some wear off them. Electric motors last for ever. Armatures and magnets have no wear and tear and there's no brushes or commutators to wear. 

 

Add to the list above the engine oil lubrication system: filters, oil and pumps no longer needed. Same for the fuel system: no more filters and pumps.

 

 

You could possibly justify battery replacement as a major ICE repair? meaning that its no negative, leaving the fuel savings as the big net gain


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  Reply # 1843282 10-Aug-2017 09:29
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kryptonjohn:

 

Brakes should last longer as regenerative braking takes some wear off them. Electric motors last for ever. Armatures and magnets have no wear and tear and there's no brushes or commutators to wear. 

 

 

Yes, but regenerative braking is more complex than simple brake discs. So more things to break and wear out and need adjusting.

 

Electric motors don't last forever; they do have bearings. I've replaced several starter motors and alternators (which is mechanically the same thing) for example.

 

 

Add to the list above the engine oil lubrication system: filters, oil and pumps no longer needed. Same for the fuel system: no more filters and pumps.

 

 

 They are on that list. ???


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  Reply # 1843290 10-Aug-2017 09:34
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tdgeek:

 

kryptonjohn:

 

Brakes should last longer as regenerative braking takes some wear off them. Electric motors last for ever. Armatures and magnets have no wear and tear and there's no brushes or commutators to wear. 

 

Add to the list above the engine oil lubrication system: filters, oil and pumps no longer needed. Same for the fuel system: no more filters and pumps.

 

 

You could possibly justify battery replacement as a major ICE repair? meaning that its no negative, leaving the fuel savings as the big net gain

 

 

Probably. I'm not sure how long the batteries last - have heard Nissan Leaf batteries not that long, but Tesla batteries love you long time! If a $10,000 battery lasts 15 years then it would be pretty good value.

 

 

 

 


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  Reply # 1843301 10-Aug-2017 09:44
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frankv:

 

kryptonjohn:

 

Brakes should last longer as regenerative braking takes some wear off them. Electric motors last for ever. Armatures and magnets have no wear and tear and there's no brushes or commutators to wear. 

 

 

Yes, but regenerative braking is more complex than simple brake discs. So more things to break and wear out and need adjusting.

 

Electric motors don't last forever; they do have bearings. I've replaced several starter motors and alternators (which is mechanically the same thing) for example.

 

 

Add to the list above the engine oil lubrication system: filters, oil and pumps no longer needed. Same for the fuel system: no more filters and pumps.

 

 

 They are on that list. ???

 

 

What breaks and wears out in regenerative braking? Honest question, I am not aware of the answer. 

 

Starter motors get mechanically hammered on every start so different kind of wear on an electric drive motor. There are only two bearings in an electric motor but an ICE engine has sleeves and bearings everywhere. There's no comparison. An electric motor basically has one moving part! 

 

The list had oil changes not the whole system. Did have fuel system - my bad. And in a diesel that fuel system is crushingly expensive to repair if something goes wrong with it (high pressure diesel pumps). Fuel injectors wear out and get dirty. Glow plugs burn out. Everything has a labour cost that can be even more than the parts. 

 

 

 

 


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  Reply # 1843339 10-Aug-2017 10:17
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kryptonjohn:

 

 

 

What breaks and wears out in regenerative braking? Honest question, I am not aware of the answer. 

 

Starter motors get mechanically hammered on every start so different kind of wear on an electric drive motor. There are only two bearings in an electric motor but an ICE engine has sleeves and bearings everywhere. There's no comparison. An electric motor basically has one moving part! 

 

 

My understanding (I'm not an expert) is that regenerative braking is done by an electric motor as a generator. I'm guessing that's not the drive motor, since that would complicate things like front/rear brake balance (especially in a 2WD car!). Since regenerative braking is ineffective at slow speeds, they also have to have some kind of mechanical (e.g. disc) brake. Based on this, I'm assuming a generator at each wheel. This will get mechanically hammered somewhat worse than a car's starter motor, since there will be lots of on/off cycles in every trip, and each application will generally involve a lot more energy.

 

I agree that an electric motor is vastly simpler than an ICE, and hence inherently more reliable. However, you said that "Electric motors last for ever". That's clearly untrue. I'm sure they will last a lot longer than an ICE, but not forever. Incidentally, an ICE failure is usually caused by the failure of one of the ancillary systems (oil, water), rather than the engine itself. So the absence of all those ancillary things in an EV will do more for reliability than anything else.

 

 


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  Reply # 1843353 10-Aug-2017 10:29
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I'm pretty sure the regenerative braking is done through the main electric drive motors and that on front drive models the conventional rear brakes are balanced electronically. But front brakes always bear the brunt braking load in all types of cars.

 

I agree electric motors don't really last forever, but I would expect them to last longer than the car so effectively forever. I wouldn't expect to see electric motors rebuilt in the life of the car because the car won't live as long as the motors. 

 

 


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  Reply # 1843438 10-Aug-2017 11:36
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kryptonjohn:

 

I'm pretty sure the regenerative braking is done through the main electric drive motors and that on front drive models the conventional rear brakes are balanced electronically. But front brakes always bear the brunt braking load in all types of cars.

 

I agree electric motors don't really last forever, but I would expect them to last longer than the car so effectively forever. I wouldn't expect to see electric motors rebuilt in the life of the car because the car won't live as long as the motors. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah... I did a bit of Googling and found this which describes the Leaf's braking system, which is more or less as you say.

 

The main motor is used for regen braking, with an "Intelligent Brake Unit" applying appropriate amounts of friction braking depending on pedal pressure. That IBU is a bit more than electronic though, with a hydraulic pump and springs and pistons and pressure sensors and stuff. So I stand by my assertion that regen braking is more complex than standard disc/drum brakes, and consequently more prone to breakdown. The Problems/Issues section on that page lists things which would not apply to standard brakes.

 

Since the main motor is used for regen, its load will reverse (which is usually a bad thing for bearings) when you press the brake pedal. The effects of that reversal of load on 10yo engine mounts and suspension and bearings is probably more assumed than understood. Under the circumstances. I think it's optimistic to think that the motor will invariably outlast the car; more likely, it's engineered to last about the same length of time. Let's hope the engineers were adequately pessimistic.

 

 


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  Reply # 1843459 10-Aug-2017 11:48
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Question: Is it a requirement of brake design that there is an acceptable fall-back if the electronic smarts fail? In other words, you can still stop the car hydraulically if you press hard enough on the brake pedal.

 

 





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  Reply # 1843472 10-Aug-2017 12:03
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Rikkitic:

 

Question: Is it a requirement of brake design that there is an acceptable fall-back if the electronic smarts fail? In other words, you can still stop the car hydraulically if you press hard enough on the brake pedal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best plan...pray tongue-out





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Retired IT Manager. 
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

 

 

Take My Advice, Pull Down Your Pants And Slide On The Ice!

 

 




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  Reply # 1843473 10-Aug-2017 12:06
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MikeB4:

 

By the time the ICE age is brought to an end alternative technology will have matured and folks will look back with amusement at the obsession with such a dirty and frankly horrible system. A positive way to look at it, the more EV's that hit the road and the less petrol is used the longer petrol will be available for collector cars.  

 

 

ICE vehicles may be environmentally "dirty", but I wouldn't say that it's a "horrible" system! It's developed over many decades to be an incredibly efficient means of transport for everybody.

 

Sure, electric vehicles are the way forward and most of us probably look forward to purchasing one.

 

But just how much pressure should be put on existing petrol vehicle owners to jump into buying an EV now?

 

Our political parties certainly aren't doing this and none of them have policies to give EV purchasers rebates, as has been done in several overseas countries. And none of the political parties are willing to set a date on when the importation of new petrol vehicles into New Zealand must stop (as has been done by a few other countries).

 

For many years to come, it seems that with Government approval the number of petrol vehicles sold in this country will outnumber the sales of EVs.

 

So, just a suggestion, don't put too much pressure on existing petrol vehicle owners to immediately jump into buying expensive and short range EVs, particularly second-hand imported ones. Here's a posting about this made recently on a Geekzone EV forum:

 

As a new car only buyer (or someone who wouldn't consider anything older than one year old if I would ever buy second hand), I would only purchase from a dealer who gives, at a minimum, a cast iron manufacturer's warranty and has enough obvious track record and demonstrable signs of solvency that I have a reasonable assurance that, were the car to go wrong, I can either hit up the manufacturer or sue the dealer. I don't buy a brand new or near new car and expect to ever have to pay to get my car fixed before I get rid of my car around the 5 to 6 year mark. Most people who buy similar cars that also happen to reside on planet Earth have similar expectations.

 

The kind of dealerships that you are talking about, where someone essentially takes a chance on a deal, knowing that it has zero respect for people's rights and the law, are typically only gambled with by buyers buying much lower cost cars. We earn well above what average families earn combined on any one of our incomes and even we would consider a 25 to 30k purchase (which is what we would typically pay for each car) to be a lot of money. Sorry but I am not willing to gamble with places that aren't backed by the manufacturer and aren't willing to even put on their website their warranty terms, when they are selling cars up to around the 25K mark or more.

 

On the topic of the Zoe, Renault invites me to express an interest. Renault is a niche enough brand -- how much will they support my EV? I am talking about availability of parts and whether all their dealers can support my EV. And when we managed to get two absolutely fantastic cars (Mazda 2 and Subaru Impreza) brand new for less than 60K, EVs just aren't there yet in terms of objective value. And people are obviously talking about cars at a price that most average people can afford here.

 

EVs will soon be excellent across the board in terms of the whole lifecycle of ownership experience -- until we get there, it'd be nice for people to be more sober over some of the issues of (especially) buying the imported ones.


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  Reply # 1843687 10-Aug-2017 17:29
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dickytim:

 

Edit: Forgot that EV will eventually need to pay RUC. $62 per 1000km this further changes the proposition

 

 

Yes, it is very likely that EVs will eventually need to pay RUC, but the $62/thou is bit of an assumption.  We have no idea of what the government will decide as the time comes to review this.  They could decide to keep it free for a few more years to encourage uptake of EVs.  They could decide to bring in a new category and have EV users pay $25/thou.  We really don't know what they are going to decide in 3 years.


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