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275 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1841596 9-Aug-2017 08:38
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My experience with Bonus Bonds makes me suspicious that the probability of winning is not just by pure chance.

 

Initially, I  put a couple of thousand in and I seem to win something every other month (prizes between $20-$80). I then kept putting more in and kept getting prizes.

 

Fore many years I had about $8000 with BB and added no further amounts. What I noticed was that I got very few prizes when I was not adding extra funds.

 

Now I win $20 about every six months. Is it rigged to reward new investors so that they add more funds? It would not surprise me.

 

My track record of winnings set against my investment record seems very improbable. Perhaps they have an algorithm that rewards new and continuing investors?

 

Has the Commerce Commission ever investigated them? Perhaps they should.

 

It would be very interesting to see the prize and investment history of a large subset of BB investors to see whether there is any statistical pattern. I suspect there might be.


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  Reply # 1841603 9-Aug-2017 08:55
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My father was a great believer in Bonus Bonds and had quite a lot invested in them (always hoping for that elusive 'big' win). It's some time ago now, but I did analysis on his draws over the years and, in total, they pretty much equated to a little less than he would have earned in interest with a typical on call savings account.


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1841616 9-Aug-2017 09:21
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KiwiTim:

 

My experience with Bonus Bonds makes me suspicious that the probability of winning is not just by pure chance.

 

Initially, I  put a couple of thousand in and I seem to win something every other month (prizes between $20-$80). I then kept putting more in and kept getting prizes.

 

Fore many years I had about $8000 with BB and added no further amounts. What I noticed was that I got very few prizes when I was not adding extra funds.

 

Now I win $20 about every six months. Is it rigged to reward new investors so that they add more funds? It would not surprise me.

 

 

 

 

Same happened to me. Only get around 1 or 2 $20 win every year now. Used to get at least $20 most months for the first 18 months.

 

This is all within the last 4 years. ($20,000 of them!)

 

Maybe I should withdraw it and then put it back to see what happens?


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  Reply # 1841630 9-Aug-2017 09:54
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Glurp
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  Reply # 1841646 9-Aug-2017 10:15
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msukiwi:

 

KiwiTim:

 

My experience with Bonus Bonds makes me suspicious that the probability of winning is not just by pure chance.

 

Initially, I  put a couple of thousand in and I seem to win something every other month (prizes between $20-$80). I then kept putting more in and kept getting prizes.

 

Fore many years I had about $8000 with BB and added no further amounts. What I noticed was that I got very few prizes when I was not adding extra funds.

 

Now I win $20 about every six months. Is it rigged to reward new investors so that they add more funds? It would not surprise me.

 

 

 

 

Same happened to me. Only get around 1 or 2 $20 win every year now. Used to get at least $20 most months for the first 18 months.

 

This is all within the last 4 years. ($20,000 of them!)

 

Maybe I should withdraw it and then put it back to see what happens?

 

 

Yes. This is exactly what I was wondering. It is also my experience. Hence my question. Is this legit or is it being fiddled in some way?

 

 





I reject your reality and substitute my own. - Adam Savage
 


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  Reply # 1841798 9-Aug-2017 12:32
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msukiwi:

 

KiwiTim:

 

My experience with Bonus Bonds makes me suspicious that the probability of winning is not just by pure chance.

 

Initially, I  put a couple of thousand in and I seem to win something every other month (prizes between $20-$80). I then kept putting more in and kept getting prizes.

 

Fore many years I had about $8000 with BB and added no further amounts. What I noticed was that I got very few prizes when I was not adding extra funds.

 

Now I win $20 about every six months. Is it rigged to reward new investors so that they add more funds? It would not surprise me.

 

 

 

 

Same happened to me. Only get around 1 or 2 $20 win every year now. Used to get at least $20 most months for the first 18 months.

 

This is all within the last 4 years. ($20,000 of them!)

 

Maybe I should withdraw it and then put it back to see what happens?

 

 

Our you could withdraw the $20k and invest it in a term deposit at 3.5% which would give you $470 for one year after tax (maybe a bit better than 1 or 2 $20 wins a year).


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  Reply # 1841802 9-Aug-2017 12:36
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dafman:

 

 

 

Our you could withdraw the $20k and invest it in a term deposit at 3.5% which would give you $470 for one year after tax (maybe a bit better than 1 or 2 $20 wins a year).

 

 

Term deposit rules make it not readily available unlike Bonus Bonds.

 

(Have it for "Medical Expenses" if required, having a stroke 4 years ago I learnt the importance of "ready" money!)

 

 


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  Reply # 1841938 9-Aug-2017 16:12
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Rikkitic:

 

 

 

Yes. This is exactly what I was wondering. It is also my experience. Hence my question. Is this legit or is it being fiddled in some way?

 

 

 

 

do you honestly think that a major product from a major bank, would have a product that gives out prizes that can be fiddled with? somthing thats not legitimate?

 

they would have been found out years ago and dealt with by the commerce commission.




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  Reply # 1841945 9-Aug-2017 16:17
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Stranger things have happened. I was just asking.

 

 





I reject your reality and substitute my own. - Adam Savage
 


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  Reply # 1843002 9-Aug-2017 19:13
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Jase2985:

 

 

 

do you honestly think that a major product from a major bank, would have a product that gives out prizes that can be fiddled with? somthing thats not legitimate?

 

they would have been found out years ago and dealt with by the commerce commission.

 

 

FWIW I believe it's more than just a product from a bank, because the bonus bonds scheme was originally a government initiative as part of the NZ Post Office, which got spun off into PostBank by the same piece of legislation that split Telecom off from the NZPO, then a few years later PostBank was acquired by ANZ. I can't hand on heart swear it but I'd be surprised if there isn't some extra protection in place because of that.





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Master Geek
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  Reply # 1843008 9-Aug-2017 19:40
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You can generally withdraw a term deposit early, though the timing and break fees vary:

 

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/81343/if-you-need-end-term-deposit-its-term-you-might-be-sizeable-break-fee-or-not-it-depends

 

As to Bonus Bonds, you better off putting the money into a term deposit and using some of the interest to buy lotto tickets. Capital is guaranteed, and your odds of winning a big prize is better than bonus bonds is currently. Still not a great investment, your best option of course is just to keep the interest.


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  Reply # 1843014 9-Aug-2017 19:46
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Term Deposits require a 31 day break delay (Notice).

 

Bonus Bonds do not.


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  Reply # 1843098 9-Aug-2017 22:01
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msukiwi:

 

Term Deposits require a 31 day break delay (Notice).

 

Bonus Bonds do not.

 

 

No. You can typically break term deposits early if required, but may lose some of your interest in doing so.

 

You should talk to your bank. Even the reduced interest in the unlikely event of terminating a term deposit early may be more than what you have historically received from bonus bonds.


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1843127 9-Aug-2017 23:13
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dafman:

msukiwi:


Term Deposits require a 31 day break delay (Notice).


Bonus Bonds do not.



No. You can typically break term deposits early if required, but may lose some of your interest in doing so.


You should talk to your bank. Even the reduced interest in the unlikely event of terminating a term deposit early may be more than what you have historically received from bonus bonds.



All the big four banks require 31 days notice since late 2014. This is to comply with Australian regulations.

The non-Australian owned banks may have different policies.


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  Reply # 1843144 10-Aug-2017 05:58
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My daughters savings account has 2.25% interest so long as the money isn't touched, can be drawn against immediately, but you loose the bonus interest when drawn.


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