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  Reply # 2093572 20-Sep-2018 07:28
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40 fellas got it right yesterday




Swype on iOS is detrimental to accurate typing. Apologies in advance.


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  Reply # 2093617 20-Sep-2018 09:20
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nathan:

 

kryptonjohn:

 

quickymart:

 

Here's something I've always wondered.

 

I (like probably a lot of other people reading this) wouldn't mind winning something in Lotto, or even Instant Kiwi. I mean a significant prize - $15 is nice, but I won't be retiring on it :D

 

I've always wondered with the winning ticket, are most of the winners numbers chosen by the punter, or are they random numbers chosen by the machine (Lucky Dip)? I'd be curious to know the breakdown - is it 50% chosen, 50% random, or...?
I know the odds of winning the big prize are quite low, but it's something I've always wondered about and I can't seem to find a breakdown online anywhere.

 

 

I trust statistics and probability enough to be confident that lucky dips would match out perform self selected tickets (assuming the lucky dip has a reasonably good random number generator). Why? Because it will have a decent spread of numbers whereas self selected tickets probably have some redundant selections.

 

In other words, lucky dip percentage of wins would match lucky dip percentage of sales (or better).

 

 

 

 

a number chosen by a computer, has more chance of winning, that a number chosen by a human - because?

 

 

 

 

I think the point being made was that even if not perfect (and far from it) computers can generally select numbers 'more' randomly than humans...

 

Case in point last nights lotto draw, which was one for the books:- 3,5,7,9,11,13 - amazing in itself just because of the sequence, but then topped off with a powerball of 'lucky' 7. Simple human nature resulted in 40 first division winners - who likely may have spent more on the celebratory champagne than they won - although the surprising part for me at least is that of those there were only 2 powerball winners.

 

So machine generated numbers might occasionally hit on that sequence, but more likely human nature (plus the design of the lotto forms) contributed to the selection of those numbers (the sequence, preference for odd numbers etc). Also, computers don't have any preference for any numbers - i.e. 7 and 8 (lucky numbers in different cultures) have meaning for humans, but machines don't care - hence why last nights result surprised in that aspect.

 

So back to the point, machines will choose 'more' random selections than humans, with less chance of correlation due to human superstition (lucky numbers, birthdays etc) - hence on a ticket by ticket basis - if the numbers are selected to win - there's a higher chance of 'win more'.

 

It would certainly be interesting to see some data on it to prove or disprove - wonder if Lotteries would be open to publishing that data.

 

/edit

 

And just realized that the probable reason for the 'low' selection of 'lucky 7' amongst the first division winners is the likelihood that that may well be just a few humans running multiple lines to cover each powerball number. That makes much more sense.

 

 

 

 


 
 
 
 


dt

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  Reply # 2093730 20-Sep-2018 11:44
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There are more self made multi millionaires in the world than there or multi millionaire lotto winners

 

You have a much higher a chance of becoming a multi millionaire by acting on a good idea and working hard or investing your disposable income than you do at winning the lotto

 

Hope none of those winners last night txts their boss they quit before finding out how much they won ;)  

 

 




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  Reply # 2097149 26-Sep-2018 22:46
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Something I meant to ask, are the number picking systems advertised online worth it? My guess would be no, otherwise everyone would do it and Lotto would go out of business eh?
This is one I came across while Googling tonight: https://www.lottery-guy.com/lottery-course/


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  Reply # 2097152 26-Sep-2018 22:54
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They're definitely worth it - but only to the person selling them to you.

 

How can they possibly give better information than already available in this thread ?

 

Main thing to remember with gambling - the house always wins :-)


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  Reply # 2097191 27-Sep-2018 08:21
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grimwulf:

nathan:


kryptonjohn:


quickymart:


Here's something I've always wondered.


I (like probably a lot of other people reading this) wouldn't mind winning something in Lotto, or even Instant Kiwi. I mean a significant prize - $15 is nice, but I won't be retiring on it :D


I've always wondered with the winning ticket, are most of the winners numbers chosen by the punter, or are they random numbers chosen by the machine (Lucky Dip)? I'd be curious to know the breakdown - is it 50% chosen, 50% random, or...?
I know the odds of winning the big prize are quite low, but it's something I've always wondered about and I can't seem to find a breakdown online anywhere.



I trust statistics and probability enough to be confident that lucky dips would match out perform self selected tickets (assuming the lucky dip has a reasonably good random number generator). Why? Because it will have a decent spread of numbers whereas self selected tickets probably have some redundant selections.


In other words, lucky dip percentage of wins would match lucky dip percentage of sales (or better).


 



a number chosen by a computer, has more chance of winning, that a number chosen by a human - because?



 


I think the point being made was that even if not perfect (and far from it) computers can generally select numbers 'more' randomly than humans...


Case in point last nights lotto draw, which was one for the books:- 3,5,7,9,11,13 - amazing in itself just because of the sequence, but then topped off with a powerball of 'lucky' 7. Simple human nature resulted in 40 first division winners - who likely may have spent more on the celebratory champagne than they won - although the surprising part for me at least is that of those there were only 2 powerball winners.


So machine generated numbers might occasionally hit on that sequence, but more likely human nature (plus the design of the lotto forms) contributed to the selection of those numbers (the sequence, preference for odd numbers etc). Also, computers don't have any preference for any numbers - i.e. 7 and 8 (lucky numbers in different cultures) have meaning for humans, but machines don't care - hence why last nights result surprised in that aspect.


So back to the point, machines will choose 'more' random selections than humans, with less chance of correlation due to human superstition (lucky numbers, birthdays etc) - hence on a ticket by ticket basis - if the numbers are selected to win - there's a higher chance of 'win more'.


It would certainly be interesting to see some data on it to prove or disprove - wonder if Lotteries would be open to publishing that data.


/edit


And just realized that the probable reason for the 'low' selection of 'lucky 7' amongst the first division winners is the likelihood that that may well be just a few humans running multiple lines to cover each powerball number. That makes much more sense.


 


 



It amused me reading the local story that one of the winners had 4 winning tickets so they had purchased 4 tickets with the same numbers. Not a great strategy as you are basically sharing any winnings with yourself, though in this example at least they increase their prize share slightly.

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  Reply # 2097195 27-Sep-2018 08:35
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quickymart:

 

Something I meant to ask, are the number picking systems advertised online worth it? My guess would be no, otherwise everyone would do it and Lotto would go out of business eh?
This is one I came across while Googling tonight: https://www.lottery-guy.com/lottery-course/

 

 

:)

 

lol, how could they be.  Please don't over think this. Your guess is right.  If you have to even ask the question, you're doing it wrong.


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  Reply # 2097316 27-Sep-2018 11:07
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This sort of thing is why, in another thread, I referred to the ‘particular weirdness’ of this thread.

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  Reply # 2108363 15-Oct-2018 17:33
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yup stats and wikipedia all you want, auckland woman won lotto twice in 5 months.

 

what I'm saying is, you can't science luck.





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  Reply # 2113678 25-Oct-2018 10:44
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I wonder if the time of the ticket purchase comes into play at all? i.e its it better if you buy the ticket a few days before the draw vs 5 minutes before ticket sale closes?


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  Reply # 2113687 25-Oct-2018 10:54
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depends on your luck





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  Reply # 2113692 25-Oct-2018 10:57
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Batman:

 

yup stats and wikipedia all you want, auckland woman won lotto twice in 5 months.

 

what I'm saying is, you can't science luck.

 

 

Yes you can: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

 

If you want to have any rational basis for winning at gambling you need to understand probability.

 

 


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  Reply # 2113699 25-Oct-2018 11:00
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Zepanda66:

 

I wonder if the time of the ticket purchase comes into play at all? i.e its it better if you buy the ticket a few days before the draw vs 5 minutes before ticket sale closes?

 

 

 

 

is this a serious question or are you trolling?


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  Reply # 2113701 25-Oct-2018 11:02
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elpenguino:

 

Batman:

 

yup stats and wikipedia all you want, auckland woman won lotto twice in 5 months.

 

what I'm saying is, you can't science luck.

 

 

Yes you can: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

 

If you want to have any rational basis for winning at gambling you need to understand probability.

 

 

 

 

Probability theory and practice are the same in theory, but not in practice. Otherwise nobody would purchase insurance. I presume you do travel overseas, and that you over time, purchase at least 3 types of insurance?





Swype on iOS is detrimental to accurate typing. Apologies in advance.


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  Reply # 2113723 25-Oct-2018 11:30
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Batman:

 

elpenguino:

 

Batman:

 

yup stats and wikipedia all you want, auckland woman won lotto twice in 5 months.

 

what I'm saying is, you can't science luck.

 

 

Yes you can: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

 

If you want to have any rational basis for winning at gambling you need to understand probability.

 

 

 

 

Probability theory and practice are the same in theory, but not in practice. 

 

 

Please give example(s).

 

 

Otherwise nobody would purchase insurance. I presume you do travel overseas, and that you over time, purchase at least 3 types of insurance?

 

 

I didn't use to bother with things like insurance so much when I was younger but now I have kids to look after I do. It's an emotional thing, as many things to do with humans are.

 

 


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