White Island eruption

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Smpl Mnmlst
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#2371686 10-Dec-2019 12:30

Zeon:

If the people were briefed and knew the risks before they went and still willing to go then that is a risk they took. No changes necessary for health and safety legislation unless the government wants to use it as an excuse to push something through as they have now used previous tragedies to do.

I hope that the Ovation passengers who went on what may have been an excursion promoted via Royal Caribbean were given adequate warning of the nature of the trip. I wonder if the passengers were required to give no-fault waivers etc to RC and/or the tour operator. Don’t know what flag Ovation sails under and what law applies, but litigation for this sort of thing in the US could be astronomical.

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

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tdgeek

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#2371687 10-Dec-2019 12:34

Zeon:

If the people were briefed and knew the risks before they went and still willing to go then that is a risk they took. No changes necessary for health and safety legislation unless the government wants to use it as an excuse to push something through as they have now used previous tragedies to do.

What did the tourists get told? Its a volcano, odds are low? Thats correct. Did they get briefed on all the alerts? What they meant? While Im not suggesting that Govt hand holds every operator, unstable activity is unstable activity. The operators ignored the alerts. In this scenario, there does need to be a "dont go" line. Or an offshore alert level and an onshore alert level. Todays PC world is full of OSH hand holding, but I think an active, unpredictable volcano such as White Island needs care, its not a kindergarten jungle jim safety procedure. I favour continued tourism there, but the safety level used by the operators, in this case, has been no tours as its already erupted.

tdgeek

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#2371698 10-Dec-2019 12:42

eracode:

Zeon:

If the people were briefed and knew the risks before they went and still willing to go then that is a risk they took. No changes necessary for health and safety legislation unless the government wants to use it as an excuse to push something through as they have now used previous tragedies to do.

I hope that the Ovation passengers who went on what may have been an excursion promoted via Royal Caribbean were given adequate warning of the nature of the trip. I wonder if the passengers were required to give no-fault waivers etc to RC and/or the tour operator. Don’t know what flag Ovation sails under and what law applies, but litigation for this sort of thing in the US could be astronomical.

This quote makes it foreseeable. The issue is water. If its a dry volcano, lava tends to flow, and you get more consistent activity changes, such as St Helens, but magma and water dont mix, that's explosion eruptions.

Monash University professor Ray Cas said the Whakaari/White Island was a "disaster waiting to happen for many years".

"Having visited it twice, I have always felt that it was too dangerous to allow the daily tour groups that visit the uninhabited island volcano by boat and helicopter.

"White Island lies almost 50 kms offshore from Whakatāne, and experiences significant explosive eruptions every 3 to 5 years. It has a very active geothermal system with many steaming gas vents and varying numbers of hot water-filled crater lakes in the floor of an amphitheatre shaped large crater."

He explained that in the lead up to major eruptions like there, there can be elevated levels of steam release, small explosions and increased seimicity, which is what happened on White Island in the last two weeks.

eracode

Smpl Mnmlst
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#2371701 10-Dec-2019 12:49

tdgeek:

This quote makes it foreseeable. The issue is water. If its a dry volcano, lava tends to flow, and you get more consistent activity changes, such as St Helens, but magma and water dont mix, that's explosion eruptions.

Monash University professor Ray Cas said the Whakaari/White Island was a "disaster waiting to happen for many years". "Having visited it twice, I have always felt that it was too dangerous to allow the daily tour groups that visit the uninhabited island volcano by boat and helicopter. "White Island lies almost 50 kms offshore from Whakatāne, and experiences significant explosive eruptions every 3 to 5 years. It has a very active geothermal system with many steaming gas vents and varying numbers of hot water-filled crater lakes in the floor of an amphitheatre shaped large crater." He explained that in the lead up to major eruptions like there, there can be elevated levels of steam release, small explosions and increased seimicity, which is what happened on White Island in the last two weeks.

When did he write/say this - after the event yesterday?

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

Oblivian

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#2371703 10-Dec-2019 12:54

eracode:

Zeon:

If the people were briefed and knew the risks before they went and still willing to go then that is a risk they took. No changes necessary for health and safety legislation unless the government wants to use it as an excuse to push something through as they have now used previous tragedies to do.

I hope that the Ovation passengers who went on what may have been an excursion promoted via Royal Caribbean were given adequate warning of the nature of the trip. I wonder if the passengers were required to give no-fault waivers etc to RC and/or the tour operator. Don’t know what flag Ovation sails under and what law applies, but litigation for this sort of thing in the US could be astronomical.

Caribbean removed the excursion details. But the cached model was still there (and I just re-found again so it's not hard) and put on the timeline feeds media are running at one point. Basically, it talked of the excitement of being able to walk a live volcano with little effort as it's at sea level. And a small flag that it is operated by 3rd party.

Most cases like this, Boats are a middle-man for booking with a sales blurb.

empacher48

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#2371714 10-Dec-2019 13:01

tdgeek:

What did the tourists get told? Its a volcano, odds are low? Thats correct. Did they get briefed on all the alerts? What they meant? While Im not suggesting that Govt hand holds every operator, unstable activity is unstable activity. The operators ignored the alerts. In this scenario, there does need to be a "dont go" line. Or an offshore alert level and an onshore alert level. Todays PC world is full of OSH hand holding, but I think an active, unpredictable volcano such as White Island needs care, its not a kindergarten jungle jim safety procedure. I favour continued tourism there, but the safety level used by the operators, in this case, has been no tours as its already erupted.

I’ve never been skiing on Ruapehu, but was the same information provided to all skiers between mid June and early July when Ruapehu was an alert level 2? Both White Island and Ruapehu have been at a level one for many years and a number of times every year they bounce up to level 2, then back again.

So if they choose not to allow people onto White Island, by that theory Ruapehu contains the same risk, therefore should also have the same restrictions.

In that case, who pays for all the infrastructure on Rupaheu should it be forced to close during a ski season, just because it happens to be at level 2?

It all comes down to lowest acceptable risk. No one knows when a volcano will erupt, in fact GNS do state a volcano can go from a level 0 to level 5 immediately with no warning. Do we just say that no one is allowed within 50km of any known volcano in NZ? Or is the risk that Auckland can go from 0 to 5 in less than a few days smaller than the cost to move the city?

tdgeek

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#2371715 10-Dec-2019 13:05

eracode:

tdgeek:

This quote makes it foreseeable. The issue is water. If its a dry volcano, lava tends to flow, and you get more consistent activity changes, such as St Helens, but magma and water dont mix, that's explosion eruptions.

Monash University professor Ray Cas said the Whakaari/White Island was a "disaster waiting to happen for many years". "Having visited it twice, I have always felt that it was too dangerous to allow the daily tour groups that visit the uninhabited island volcano by boat and helicopter. "White Island lies almost 50 kms offshore from Whakatāne, and experiences significant explosive eruptions every 3 to 5 years. It has a very active geothermal system with many steaming gas vents and varying numbers of hot water-filled crater lakes in the floor of an amphitheatre shaped large crater." He explained that in the lead up to major eruptions like there, there can be elevated levels of steam release, small explosions and increased seimicity, which is what happened on White Island in the last two weeks.

When did he write/say this - after the event yesterday?

Yes, afterwards, I can't find it, I thought it was off here, but likely to from a link from another link so hard to locate

https://twitter.com/SallyHPotter

tdgeek

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#2371717 10-Dec-2019 13:07

Not my link but this is the person, scroll down slightly, Raymond Cas

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/dec/09/new-zealand-volcano-tourists-injured-and-missing-after-eruption-on-white-island-live

tdgeek

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#2371722 10-Dec-2019 13:13

empacher48:

tdgeek:

What did the tourists get told? Its a volcano, odds are low? Thats correct. Did they get briefed on all the alerts? What they meant? While Im not suggesting that Govt hand holds every operator, unstable activity is unstable activity. The operators ignored the alerts. In this scenario, there does need to be a "dont go" line. Or an offshore alert level and an onshore alert level. Todays PC world is full of OSH hand holding, but I think an active, unpredictable volcano such as White Island needs care, its not a kindergarten jungle jim safety procedure. I favour continued tourism there, but the safety level used by the operators, in this case, has been no tours as its already erupted.

I’ve never been skiing on Ruapehu, but was the same information provided to all skiers between mid June and early July when Ruapehu was an alert level 2? Both White Island and Ruapehu have been at a level one for many years and a number of times every year they bounce up to level 2, then back again.

So if they choose not to allow people onto White Island, by that theory Ruapehu contains the same risk, therefore should also have the same restrictions.

In that case, who pays for all the infrastructure on Rupaheu should it be forced to close during a ski season, just because it happens to be at level 2?

It all comes down to lowest acceptable risk. No one knows when a volcano will erupt, in fact GNS do state a volcano can go from a level 0 to level 5 immediately with no warning. Do we just say that no one is allowed within 50km of any known volcano in NZ? Or is the risk that Auckland can go from 0 to 5 in less than a few days smaller than the cost to move the city?

My reference to skiing was skiing. Risk of injury. White Island erupts every few years, last was 2016. The alerts given are quite clear. Is Rupaehu the same as White Island? The activity in the weeks preceding this event are a warning. It may subside or it may not, when the alert subsides, tourists can visit. Its not like it goes off every century. Unstable. Does Ruapehu erupt every few years? Its more stable, but the level of alert should be used. While Island is fully active 24/7

GV27

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#2371725 10-Dec-2019 13:20

tdgeek:

My reference to skiing was skiing. Risk of injury. White Island erupts every few years, last was 2016. The alerts given are quite clear. Is Rupaehu the same as White Island? The activity in the weeks preceding this event are a warning. It may subside or it may not, when the alert subsides, tourists can visit. Its not like it goes off every century. Unstable. Does Ruapehu erupt every few years? Its more stable, but the level of alert should be used. While Island is fully active 24/7

Sort of. Ruapehu is going through a phase with heating and cooling cycles of the crater lake. Geonet are very clear that volcanic activity is more likely to occur at a high or low max temperature during these cycles, but that eruptions have and will happen without warning and at any time. Ruapehu/Tongariro/Ngaruhoe are actually in a rather unusual calm period, given their histories. It's quite unusual to have all of them at a low ebb for such a long time.

Even in the last few weeks there have been shallow quakes to the west of Ruapehu at a historic satellite vent. Not an indication of a pending eruption, but certainly in a different place to the usual activity.

empacher48

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#2371727 10-Dec-2019 13:23

tdgeek:

My reference to skiing was skiing. Risk of injury. White Island erupts every few years, last was 2016. The alerts given are quite clear. Is Rupaehu the same as White Island? The activity in the weeks preceding this event are a warning. It may subside or it may not, when the alert subsides, tourists can visit. Its not like it goes off every century. Unstable. Does Ruapehu erupt every few years? Its more stable, but the level of alert should be used. While Island is fully active 24/7

According to GNS, both carry the same risk of doing the same thing. It’s why GNS have had both at level 1 for the last 9 years I’ve been monitoring. It’s also why on occasion the signs they see, they increase to level 2. The last eruption minor eruption from Ruapehu happened when it was classed as level 1 and was still 75% the size of the current White Island event.

Ruapehu is still classed as active, hence it is level 1 an GNS state that eruption events on Ruapehu could happen anytime without warning. Even in June/July when it was level 2 (lake temp increased by 35 degrees over 24 hours and gas volumes increased, so level increased to 2). But did the operators decide to shut down the ski fields?

Tongariro erupted a few years ago on level 0.

All our volcanoes have an inherit risk of erupting tomorrow. Ruapehu and White Island have the most signs of unrest constantly.

duckDecoy

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#2371730 10-Dec-2019 13:27

Geektastic: I still see a fair bit of what might be termed a lack of attention to detail amongst some providers.

Any chance you can enlighten us on what to avoid ? Those of us not in the tourist industry probably won't know what to be looking out for.

tdgeek

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#2371733 10-Dec-2019 13:31

empacher48:

tdgeek:

My reference to skiing was skiing. Risk of injury. White Island erupts every few years, last was 2016. The alerts given are quite clear. Is Rupaehu the same as White Island? The activity in the weeks preceding this event are a warning. It may subside or it may not, when the alert subsides, tourists can visit. Its not like it goes off every century. Unstable. Does Ruapehu erupt every few years? Its more stable, but the level of alert should be used. While Island is fully active 24/7

According to GNS, both carry the same risk of doing the same thing. It’s why GNS have had both at level 1 for the last 9 years I’ve been monitoring. It’s also why on occasion the signs they see, they increase to level 2. The last eruption minor eruption from Ruapehu happened when it was classed as level 1 and was still 75% the size of the current White Island event.

Ruapehu is still classed as active, hence it is level 1 an GNS state that eruption events on Ruapehu could happen anytime without warning. Even in June/July when it was level 2 (lake temp increased by 35 degrees over 24 hours and gas volumes increased, so level increased to 2). But did the operators decide to shut down the ski fields?

Tongariro erupted a few years ago on level 0.

All our volcanoes have an inherit risk of erupting tomorrow. Ruapehu and White Island have the most signs of unrest constantly.

Ok, cancel alerts, waste of time, there is no need.

empacher48

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#2371736 10-Dec-2019 13:39

tdgeek:

Ok, cancel alerts, waste of time, there is no need.

That is a bit extreme, don’t you think? We are dealing with Mother Nature, to whom is rather unpredictable, no matter what we think.

The alert levels do provide a need, but still have a level of uncertainty. The people who monitor the codes are aware of this and do not use the code exclusively when weighing up the risk to operate. If it were, the ski fields on Ruapehu would’ve closed down years ago.

Fred99

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#2371779 10-Dec-2019 13:52

Both White Island and Ruapehu have phreatic eruptions, superheated pressurised steam driven. So while the heat source is still magma (at say a thousand degrees) at depth, lower temperatures above 100 at higher level in non-molten rock create high pressures if confined by the rock and mud etc and it's impossible to predict when it'll let rip - like a pressure cooker full of mud, but you've got no idea what the pressure actually is, and no real idea of how strong the lid is. So they can let rip at any time with very little - or no warning.

One of the regular monitoring methods is sampling crater lake temps and chemical composition and measuring gasses.

The geonet site has alert bulletins - you can look back at years of past alerts. If they closed Ruapehu every time the crater lake warmed or there was a slight uptick in seismic activity etc, that would be the end of skiing in the NI.

More concern is the big volcanoes (ie Taupo) or monogenetic field in Auckland. It's nice to believe that there'd be warning, but as neither have ever been observed, there's only theory and observation of similar (but not the same) events elsewhere to go on. Tarawera was a biggie, there was some warning (quakes) but no instrumental or chemical monitoring back then.

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