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4782 posts

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  #2520566 10-Jul-2020 09:30
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Fred99:

 

It's quite a unique situation - having a surplus of 24/7 green electricity.

 

 

Yeah, but in reality "we" don't have a surplus, Invercargill/Southland does,  and it will cost us significant $$$ to get it anywhere useful...


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  #2520571 10-Jul-2020 09:38
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wellygary:

 

Fred99:

 

It's quite a unique situation - having a surplus of 24/7 green electricity.

 

 

Yeah, but in reality "we" don't have a surplus, Invercargill/Southland does,  and it will cost us significant $$$ to get it anywhere useful...

 

 

My point was to find a use locally.  When they start talking of "billions" to build a new HVDC line etc, then "billions" might be better spent in Southland on "something" that can benefit from cheap clean power.  An aluminium smelter might be good...


 
 
 
 


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  #2520574 10-Jul-2020 09:42
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mattwnz:

 

Yeap. That is why I wonder why green people are so for this move. They have even claimed it will lead to cheaper powers for NZers. But I am not so sure, because the generation capacity will still be there, but a large customer will have disappeared, but the generation maintenance costs  may not decrease much.

 

 

If you are purely focused on NZ emissions it is a big win. I suspect many are. This for example, means the mothballing or de-commission of NZ remaining (and quite inefficient) coal capable units at Huntley is likely.

 

It is also likely to be a factor in encouraging the movement of process heat & transport from fossil fuels.

 

The fact that the production will almost certifiably more to somewhere with a cheap & dirty power grid, cheap labor, and relaxed workplace safety and environmental standards doesn't seem to figure for some reason.

 

 

 

It is extremely likely that wholesale power prices will drop. Maintenance on the big hydro is pritty cheap in relation to the income produced.

 

It is also likely that some thermal power units will get mothballed, or de-commissioned.

 

 

 

The sad thing for me as somebody who has an enthusiast and professional interest in renewable electricity generation projects is that this announcement will stop development of new schemes in their tracks for a few years to a decade.

 

Fred99:

 

But maybe it should - if there was a case to use it (energy from Manapouri) for zero CO2 production of "something" that's currently damaging the global environment.

 

It's quite a unique situation - having a surplus of 24/7 green electricity.

 

 

There is only going to be a surplus between when the smelter is shut down, and when a Transmission upgrade is complete.

 

After the Transmission upgrade is complete, that power will be sent north, and will essentially depress wholesale prices such that it is un-economic to run that amount fossil fuel generation. It's not like we are going to be spilling water long term...

 

As an example currently (noting it is a partially cold morning) 401MW of power is being generated from huntly's gas/coal unites, 923MW from Gas, and 202MW from mostly fossel fueled Co-gen plants.

 

The smelters power demand is about 570 MW

 

Currently the HDVC link is runing at 700MW North, meaning there is 500MW more capacity to send power north on that peice of transmission hardware, before any upgrades are done.

 

 

 

One thing to note is that this announcement will cause every electricity generator to defer their new renewable energy projects, fearing cheaper wholesale power.

 

 


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  #2520579 10-Jul-2020 09:51
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Fred99:

 

My point was to find a use locally.  When they start talking of "billions" to build a new HVDC line etc, then "billions" might be better spent in Southland on "something" that can benefit from cheap clean power.  An aluminium smelter might be good...

 

 

The problem is that the Aluminium smelting industry is busted, with huge amounts of over capacity,, 70% of demand is from China, who are very happy to build Huge smelters and supply them with low cost coal powered electricity....

 

 

 

 


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  #2520586 10-Jul-2020 09:57
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Scott3:

 

One thing to note is that this announcement will cause every electricity generator to defer their new renewable energy projects, fearing cheaper wholesale power.

 

Yip, Contact's Tauhara will now go back on the shelf for 10+ years,  but on the other side the Taranaki Combined Cycle gas peaker will not be replaced when it shuts in '23.. and Genesis will bring forward the de commissioning of the Rankine units at Huntly


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  #2520589 10-Jul-2020 10:05
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Scott3:

 

Currently the HDVC link is runing at 700MW North, meaning there is 500MW more capacity to send power north on that peice of transmission hardware, before any upgrades are done.

 

 

My understanding is that the limiting factor is the transmission lines north from Haywards, not the HVDC link itself.

 

Also, can you give a link to where you're getting that information from? Does it show the load on HT lines in the southern North Island?

 

 


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  #2520600 10-Jul-2020 10:15
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frankv:

 

My understanding is that the limiting factor is the transmission lines north from Haywards, not the HVDC link itself.

 

Also, can you give a link to where you're getting that information from? Does it show the load on HT lines in the southern North Island?

 

 

 

 

https://www.transpower.co.nz/power-system-live-data


 
 
 
 


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  #2520608 10-Jul-2020 10:27
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Scott3:

 

One thing to note is that this announcement will cause every electricity generator to defer their new renewable energy projects, fearing cheaper wholesale power.

 

 

Not to mention permanently cancel any lower South Island renewable generation projects - e.g. Slopedown and Kaiwera wind farms, Hawea dam hydro




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  #2520633 10-Jul-2020 11:18
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Interesting update here   https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122093799/meridian-boss-we-offered-smelter-compelling-deal

 

Appears to be a grand offer, but rejected. Aluminium price is no good, aircraft heading towards using composite, there is no magic wand for ALU anymore


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Master Geek


  #2520642 10-Jul-2020 11:30
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Well swapping one form of renewable for another is not so bad.
When needs grow , or a big use is found for Southlands power then those other projects will go ahead again with newer technology.

 

Certainly uses that are closer to Southland and providing development for Southland economy to contribute to the countries economy would be ideal.

 

Multiple projects probably more resilient to changes in markets and technology.

 

There was an item on the news last night about schools and many others using coal heating in the south as electricity is so expensive, so maybe an opportunity here to upgrade a wide range of infrastructure in the south where heating is needed. 

 

Probably time to reconsider economics of Railways buying Diesel engines and having electric network mothballed.
If Government assured them them a similar deal to Tiwi, long term power at low cost.
Full electrification of rail may be a good partial use of some of the energy. 
Allow for higher speed long distance passenger as well.
Japanese were operating 100MPH trains on 3ft 6" , years ago, before the wide gauge super high speed trains.

 

There was an item on the news last night about schools and many others using coal heating in the south as electricity is so expensive, so maybe an opportunity here to upgrade a wide range of infrastructure in the south. 

 

Those in the know on the electricity grid.
My understanding is that the last coal/gas/fossil generation units are actually needed as fast reacting emergency generating to assure secure supply.
If there is a major lines issue , substation failure like happened to Auckland years ago, earthquakes and all that stuff.




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  #2520647 10-Jul-2020 11:34
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Yep, a lot of options, nothing will happen overnight, but its worth working towards stable longer term solutions and diversification of the energy use


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  #2520653 10-Jul-2020 11:40
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Considering the shape the world is in right now and the looming recession that is going to hit, it may be prudent for the Government to bite the bullet and buy another 5 years of Tiwai smelting.

 

No matter what happens it is a no win situation, but I am sure the Treasury boffins will be doing their sums.


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  #2520655 10-Jul-2020 11:41
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ezbee:

 

There was an item on the news last night about schools and many others using coal heating in the south as electricity is so expensive, so maybe an opportunity here to upgrade a wide range of infrastructure in the south. .

 

 

It was specifically referring to the West Coast, which have really high lines charges, ( long distance to provide power and very few people/ industries to spread the cost across)

 

Also the story also actually totally illustrated the issue with the smelter,

 

They were using Coal because it was cheap as chips, and was only getting expensive as carbon charges were being added to it- China continues to build Coal power plants,  and make aluminium, because they are the cheapest source of power and they built it right next to the smelters, - Tiwai was getting crippled on the lines charges from Manapouri..

 

https://www.ft.com/content/cdcd8a02-81b5-48f1-a4a5-60a93a6ffa1e 




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  #2520663 10-Jul-2020 11:47
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Mahon:

 

Considering the shape the world is in right now and the looming recession that is going to hit, it may be prudent for the Government to bite the bullet and buy another 5 years of Tiwai smelting.

 

No matter what happens it is a no win situation, but I am sure the Treasury boffins will be doing their sums.

 

 

I reckon now is the time to reconstruct that energy source for NZ and specifically the lower provinces and Westland. Its time to rebuild that economy, there has been plenty of off the cuff suggestions here, and any development can certainly help to hoover up some employment.


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Ultimate Geek


  #2520726 10-Jul-2020 13:07
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tdgeek:

 

Mahon:

 

Considering the shape the world is in right now and the looming recession that is going to hit, it may be prudent for the Government to bite the bullet and buy another 5 years of Tiwai smelting.

 

No matter what happens it is a no win situation, but I am sure the Treasury boffins will be doing their sums.

 

 

I reckon now is the time to reconstruct that energy source for NZ and specifically the lower provinces and Westland. Its time to rebuild that economy, there has been plenty of off the cuff suggestions here, and any development can certainly help to hoover up some employment.

 

 

Not disagreeing with you...but they are all 5 year projects. I think to keep smelting in the mean time is best for NZ and the people in the South especially with a recession looming.


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