Alarming nuke question

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Awrrr
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#2950880 5-Aug-2022 11:22

I haven’t studied this issue (hence my question) but that never stopped an opinion so here is my 2 cents:

I think whoever posted it would be the toilet paper battles times 10,000,000 was not too far off the mark. But it would be an evolving situation. People would know what was coming from the news, and would then become very afraid when communications ceased. I think there would be panic and riots as supermarkets were raided. But this wouldn’t last. After a few days, the panic would subside and people would start strategising for survival. I think law and order on a local scale would emerge and most communities would come together against gangs and anti-social behaviour. But there might be armed conflict along the way.

In the longer term, there might be tribalism as communities struggle for resources. Yes, New Zealand is blessed with land for growing crops, but clean water is in short supply and 19th century agricultural techniques, which may have worked for a population of 100,000, will be challenged to feed five million. There will be much strife and hardship, especially in urban centres.

The lack of modern communications would probably result in the collapse of national government and the emergence of localised power bases. Limited trade would come about.

There might be invasions of overseas refugees. Some would be repelled, some might overwhelm local defences. As things became more settled, it would be harder to get in.

We would survive, at least in the short term, but we might not enjoy it much.

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SaltyNZ

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#2950887 5-Aug-2022 11:42

Rikkitic:

There might be invasions of overseas refugees. Some would be repelled, some might overwhelm local defences. As things became more settled, it would be harder to get in.

I wouldn't expect many. Where are they getting the fuel from? Or the ships or aircraft? Anyone can steal a car, but it's a bit more complicated to steal a 767 or a cruise ship. As to repelling them, I don't think we have any material assets in the way of anti-aircraft or anti-shipping weapons, if indeed we could even bring ourselves to shoot a plane full of refugees out of the air in the first place. That would be even worse than the Australian's Manus Island/Christmas Island refugee policy that we disapprove of so much.

We might start out a bit cleaner here but lots of people are going to die of starvation very quickly. It won't be "paradise" for a looooong time.

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MikeB4

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#2950889 5-Aug-2022 11:54

SaltyNZ:

I wouldn't expect many. Where are they getting the fuel from? Or the ships or aircraft? Anyone can steal a car, but it's a bit more complicated to steal a 767 or a cruise ship. As to repelling them, I don't think we have any material assets in the way of anti-aircraft or anti-shipping weapons, if indeed we could even bring ourselves to shoot a plane full of refugees out of the air in the first place. That would be even worse than the Australian's Manus Island/Christmas Island refugee policy that we disapprove of so much.

We might start out a bit cleaner here but lots of people are going to die of starvation very quickly. It won't be "paradise" for a looooong time.

We have very limited maritime defence capabilities. We have two Frigates, Two deep water patrol craft and two inshore patrol craft. The RNZAF 2 in service Orion maritime patrol aircraft with torpedo and depth charge capabilities. Given our very large coastline that is nowhere near enough. The rest of the RNZAF is transport.

MikeB4

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#2950893 5-Aug-2022 12:01

Another factor is given we only have very limited medicine production capabilities here in Aotearoa on going health will be a major issue and add to that poor heating, poor nutrition resulting from very low food production, poor water condition and increasing background radiation our life expectancy will decline a lot, birth rates will drop, child mortality, birth mortality rates will rise as well miscarriages.

Sidestep

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#2950973 5-Aug-2022 14:07

Rikkitic:

...I think law and order on a local scale would emerge and most communities would come together against gangs and anti-social behaviour..

Dad was in the British Commonwealth Occupation Forces - which occupied Japan after their surrender to 'demilitarise' the country.
Specifically he was with the 34th Australian Infantry, who occupied Hiroshima prefecture, and the remains of Hiroshima city.

When he got there most of the people injured in the atomic blast were on the way to recovery - or had already died.
But shiploads of surrendered Japanese troops were still arriving from across Asia and the Pacific, disembarking at the former Japanese naval base in Kure

There was nothing left of Kure, just twisted wreckage - the Americans had bombed it to oblivion in July 1945, no public transport - and the roads were destroyed.
So they'd just start walking the roughly 20km to Hiroshima. The Australians would see them reach the places their houses and families used to be, and just stand there.

But then they'd quickly join the thousands who were clearing, rebuilding the city. There was no heavy equipment or fuel. Everything had to be done by hand.
He said from the hills above Hiroshima they looked like ants. Lines of people picking and passing bricks, timbers, sheets of iron -anything salvageable.

They'd pull the rubble on hand-wagons to where it could be sorted. They had few tools, so they'd make them from scrap..
Police, firemen, someone with authority - would take charge and they'd use what they had to build shelters, repair roads and infrastructure.

They were chronically hungry - there was very little food, or medicine or anything else.

But they grew small gardens everywhere - in ditches, on the sides of roads and footpaths - any small patch of dirt that could be cultivated.
And in autumn, women small children, the disabled and wounded - carefully harvested every grain. They didn't kill each other, or fight, or steal each other's crops.

In fact the Australians - also charged with keeping the peace - had very little to do. They'd been ordered not to fraternise with the Japanese, so they just watched.
And the Japanese didn't fight or curse them or even look at them much. Just quietly struggled day after day to rebuild their lives.

By the time Dad left - in November 1948, Hiroshima had rows of rebuilt houses, running water, electricity and public transport.
Community buildings were being rebuilt, Japan had a new constitution - and women could vote for the first time.

So, I reckon, don't discount human ingenuity, intelligence and our ability to work together for the greater good..

I'm one who also thinks law and order would emerge and communities would come together.

Eva888

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#2951030 5-Aug-2022 14:53

@Sidestep that was an uplifting story. I don’t think that in NZ there would be a similar meek response. Japanese are a stoic and meek people with a society built on respect and a work ethic of obedience to superiors and elders. That’s how they rebuilt so fast.

Geektastic

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#2951069 5-Aug-2022 16:12

Eva888: @Sidestep that was an uplifting story. I don’t think that in NZ there would be a similar meek response. Japanese are a stoic and meek people with a society built on respect and a work ethic of obedience to superiors and elders. That’s how they rebuilt so fast.

i am not sure 'meek' is quite the right adjective to describe a race prepared to ritually disembowel themselves and show no pain...!

Rikkitic

Awrrr
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#2951071 5-Aug-2022 16:14

Eva888: @Sidestep that was an uplifting story. I don’t think that in NZ there would be a similar meek response. Japanese are a stoic and meek people with a society built on respect and a work ethic of obedience to superiors and elders. That’s how they rebuilt so fast.

Agree with this. Japan has completely recovered from an overwhelming natural disaster, including earthquake, nuclear meltdown and tsunami. Christchurch was small change compared to that and we still haven't got it together. I don't doubt we would pull together when the chips are down, but we have nothing like the capability, competence and motivation of the Japanese. There is a huge cultural difference here.

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Geektastic

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#2951073 5-Aug-2022 16:15

TL:DR but if the bombs come, best make sure you have the means to hunt for food and defend what you have.

Also make sure you have an MSR Guardian water filter in your kit.

aspett

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#2951076 5-Aug-2022 16:18

Geektastic:

TL:DR but if the bombs come, best make sure you have the means to hunt for food and defend what you have.

Also make sure you have an MSR Guardian water filter in your kit.

>Effective against chemicals/toxins No

Good luck with that.

cruxis

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#2951107 5-Aug-2022 17:03

Our clever Kiwis will become important. Those that know how to convert Diesels to Run on Biofuels. Coal which NZ has plenty can also be turned into liquid fuels to power farm machines.

gzt

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#2951140 5-Aug-2022 18:57

tdgeek: Japan had two strikes, they managed fine.

Oh yeah nothing to worry about..

Geektastic

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#2951179 5-Aug-2022 22:40

aspett:

Geektastic:

TL:DR but if the bombs come, best make sure you have the means to hunt for food and defend what you have.

Also make sure you have an MSR Guardian water filter in your kit.

>Effective against chemicals/toxins No

Good luck with that.

Very few portable solutions would be. It is effective against a myriad of other things when all pumped water, reticulated water etc is no longer available and you have to drink from whatever you can find. Better that than nothing.

Geektastic

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#2951180 5-Aug-2022 22:42

cruxis:

Our clever Kiwis will become important. Those that know how to convert Diesels to Run on Biofuels. Coal which NZ has plenty can also be turned into liquid fuels to power farm machines.

Probably illegal...😎

I recall a TV program that showed a guy in the UK running a Volvo diesel on the waste frying oil from fish and chip shops!

tdgeek

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#2951198 6-Aug-2022 08:07

MikeB4: The wild fires are insignificant to the amount of material that will be thrown high in the atmosphere in a matter of minutes. The effect of many large cities burning will impact the upper and lower atmosphere in a matter of days.

The disruption to communication and electronics will be catastrophic.

Our medicine supplies, oil, a huge percentage of food will be gone.

As the for want of a better term the nuclear cloud will move south but way before then our climate would have changed significantly and our agriculture would collapse.

So a mass extinction event

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