Auckland Weather 27/01/23 and Cyclone Gabrielle

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#3034371 10-Feb-2023 10:32

networkn:

I think that people should use a bit of common sense. Even if it's not a red do not travel, adding traffic to already clogged roads in bad weather isn't going to make anything better.

If you don't NEED to travel then you should probably stay off the roads.

No disagreements from me there. I just want to have the backing of Civil Defence saying 'Going into work if you don't have to is a dumb idea, don't do it' before I take that to the powers that be.

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wratterus

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#3034375 10-Feb-2023 10:42

Eva888:

Geez look at Valentines Day on the MetVuw maps. Big red splotch over the North Island. The word Massacre comes to mind.

Those maps tend to often make it look worse than it really is - remember that is 6 hour accumulated rainfall, and it's only 20mm over 6 hours for it to show red, which is not much at all. It's more the wind that looks bad there.

neb

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#3034444 10-Feb-2023 11:21

Depends on who they're getting their data from... the US Navy data is showing it tracking further east than originally expected and rain rates from sources like Weather Underground (IBM) have been dropping over the last 12 hours, so at the moment it looks like (a) the heaviest stuff will miss us and (b) the concern will be more wind than rain.

(Void where prohibited, actual mileage may vary, subject to change without notice, driver does not carry cash, refrigerate after opening, not a typewriter).

kingdragonfly

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#3034449 10-Feb-2023 11:28

Just got an alert from U.S. Consulate Auckland

---------------------------

Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Weather Alert: Cyclone Gabrielle

Current weather forecasts indicate that Cyclone Gabrielle will hit northern New Zealand over the weekend with the most severe impacts expected early next week, from as early as Sunday night. Cities in the current path of the storm include: Northland, Coromandel, and Auckland north of Whangaparāoa. As a category three cyclone, winds of up to 95 miles per hour and rainfall of up to a foot are possible. The consulate will send a separate message if conditions require it to close to the public.

Actions to Take:

Prepare for the storm now. Local authorities are recommending you have at least three days of supplies on hand and at least a week supply of any vital medication. Review further information on preparing for major storms at ready.gov/hurricanes.
Monitor local media and social media account or website of New Zealand Civil Defence. Individuals in Auckland should also monitor Auckland Emergency Management’s website.
Seek secure shelter during the storm and avoid travel until the storm has dissipated.
Avoid going into flooded areas and be aware of the possibility for flash flooding and storm surges in low-lying areas.
Inform your friends and family in the U.S. that you are safe after the storm passes.

https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes

networkn

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#3034451 10-Feb-2023 11:34

Some sites are referring to it as a severe category 3 storm others a cat3 cyclone? I'd have thought the were different?

kingdragonfly

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#3034458 10-Feb-2023 11:40

at Friday 10:30 am NZ

RNZ: Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle intensifies into category 3 storm

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle has been upgraded to category 3 and MetService forecasts it will develop into category 2 tomorrow.

As of Friday morning, it was moving southeast over open waters in the Coral Sea and was close to reaching its peak intensity, MetService said.

NIWA said the weather system was tracking further east than it had been yesterday but that continued to expose Auckland, Northland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne to the impacts.

It is likely to hit Northland some time on Sunday, before moving towards Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula.
...

neb

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#3034459 10-Feb-2023 11:41

networkn:
Some sites are referring to it as a severe category 3 storm others a cat3 cyclone? I'd have thought the were different?

It's currently a cyclone but will have dropped to tropical storm by the time it gets here. I wouldn't go much by the naming both because there's ambiguity over whether to refer to it by what it is now or what it'll be Monday morning, and because the naming is pretty muddled anyway, there's cyclonic storms, typhoons, intense tropical cyclones, etc. The category scale is the one to go by, and then check that it's for when it hits us, not what it is now.

kingdragonfly

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#3034460 10-Feb-2023 11:43

networkn:
Some sites are referring to it as a severe category 3 storm others a cat3 cyclone? I'd have thought the were different?

in this case "storm" is short for "tropical storms"

All hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons are storms, but not the other way round.

tdgeek

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#3034466 10-Feb-2023 11:53

kingdragonfly:

in this case "storm" is short for "tropical storms"

All hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons are storms, but not the other way round.

I think he means that the media mixes and matches the terms, and landfall with a cyclone is a lot different than a storm

quickymart

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#3034471 10-Feb-2023 12:14

A couple of colleagues went to the supermarket to stock up just now and one said it was quite busy, no parking and bottled water was in short supply.

I hope it's not like the first coronavirus lockdown in 2020 again, where shoppers went nuts over toilet paper.

neb

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#3034488 10-Feb-2023 12:52

kingdragonfly: Just got an alert from U.S. Consulate Auckland [...] As a category three cyclone, winds of up to 95 miles per hour and rainfall of up to a foot are possible.

Those figures seem, um, bollocks. The current wind speed as reported by the JTWC (US Navy), when it's still a full cyclone, is 75kts which is around 85mph. What the US consulate is saying is that as it heads south and drops in intensity over two days the winds will actually be worse than they are now when it's still a full cyclone.

This does not seem very credible.

Eva888

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#3034549 10-Feb-2023 13:08

Wind is what worries me most facing the Wellington South Coast. Transporting a friend to hospital for an operation on Tuesday when it shows it will hit us the worst.

Hopefully it will change direction soon and miss those who bore the brunt last time.

Again I question why the army isn’t brought in to help deploy sand bags to protect property and direct flow in the hardest hit areas up North.

MikeB4

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#3034565 10-Feb-2023 13:53

Eva888: Wind is what worries me most facing the Wellington South Coast. Transporting a friend to hospital for an operation on Tuesday when it shows it will hit us the worst.

Hopefully it will change direction soon and miss those who bore the brunt last time.

Again I question why the army isn’t brought in to help deploy sand bags to protect property and direct flow in the hardest hit areas up North.

There are rules around how and when the NZDF can be activated in these events.

Eva888

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#3034568 10-Feb-2023 13:57

At these times everyone feels so helpless watching the suffering. Here’s a list of places you can donate to or volunteer with.

https://www.theurbanlist.com/nz/a-list/auckland-flood-support

mkissin

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#3034588 10-Feb-2023 14:23

neb:
kingdragonfly: Just got an alert from U.S. Consulate Auckland [...] As a category three cyclone, winds of up to 95 miles per hour and rainfall of up to a foot are possible.
Those figures seem, um, bollocks. The current wind speed as reported by the JTWC (US Navy), when it's still a full cyclone, is 75kts which is around 85mph. What the US consulate is saying is that as it heads south and drops in intensity over two days the winds will actually be worse than they are now when it's still a full cyclone. This does not seem very credible.

Sustained wind vs gusts, perhaps?

There's a lot of alarmist stuff going around, but when preparing for a potential emergency it's probably best to err on the over-prepared side and I think there's also a tendency to overcompensate for the failings of the response to the initial weather problems.

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