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1598 posts

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  Reply # 535798 20-Oct-2011 20:09
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gzt:
oxnsox: So to put this in 'conspiracy' perspective. The GNS is NOT Ken Ring and may have chosen NOT to spook those in Christchurch as their scientific approach to these things meant they do not operate with the same impunity (and apparent clarity) as aforementioned Mr Ring.

No the GNS is not Ken Ring. I cannot begin to express how thankful I am that is the case. Earthquakes are not very predictable. However, by contrast aftershocks are very predictable (just not by Ken Ring) within certain accepted parameters. This is not controversial at all.

The reason I'm dropping it in this topic is because the NZ Herald article has a somewhat sensationalist tone to it which will almost certainly cause misunderstanding. 

The Herald led with a rewritten version on the front page of the print edition this morning. It is a bit clearer on the process and sequence of events, but far less than ideal. More on this later.

oxnsox: So GNS could not have put any date, time or location on this eventuality.

As the article states - GNS empirically assigned a magnitude and several likely locations for the aftershock events. The article does not mention a specific temporal window, but there is no doubt a temporal window is implicit in the statistical analysis performed.

I'm just curious how many of you know that we are still in a national state of emergency, essentially allowing for laws to be passed without scrutiny. "The state of emergency in New Zealand expires on the commencement of the seventh day after the date on which it was declared, unless it is extended." Just how long is it going to keep being extended for? I'm also curious how long they are going to keep borrowing $450 million every week?

On another note: I've found another patent. This time for "Nuclear-sized explosions without radiation". Let me guess: "oh you don't know if it works","people just patent things for the sake of it", etc, etc. (http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.htm&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=4,873,928.PN.&OS=PN/4,873,928&RS=PN/4,873,928).

Wake up people!

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  Reply # 535860 20-Oct-2011 21:50
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codyc1515:
gzt:
oxnsox: So to put this in 'conspiracy' perspective. The GNS is NOT Ken Ring and may have chosen NOT to spook those in Christchurch as their scientific approach to these things meant they do not operate with the same impunity (and apparent clarity) as aforementioned Mr Ring.

No the GNS is not Ken Ring. I cannot begin to express how thankful I am that is the case. Earthquakes are not very predictable. However, by contrast aftershocks are very predictable (just not by Ken Ring) within certain accepted parameters. This is not controversial at all.

The reason I'm dropping it in this topic is because the NZ Herald article has a somewhat sensationalist tone to it which will almost certainly cause misunderstanding. 

The Herald led with a rewritten version on the front page of the print edition this morning. It is a bit clearer on the process and sequence of events, but far less than ideal. More on this later.

oxnsox: So GNS could not have put any date, time or location on this eventuality.

As the article states - GNS empirically assigned a magnitude and several likely locations for the aftershock events. The article does not mention a specific temporal window, but there is no doubt a temporal window is implicit in the statistical analysis performed.

I'm just curious how many of you know that we are still in a national state of emergency, essentially allowing for laws to be passed without scrutiny. "The state of emergency in New Zealand expires on the commencement of the seventh day after the date on which it was declared, unless it is extended." Just how long is it going to keep being extended for? I'm also curious how long they are going to keep borrowing $450 million every week?

On another note: I've found another patent. This time for "Nuclear-sized explosions without radiation". Let me guess: "oh you don't know if it works","people just patent things for the sake of it", etc, etc. (http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.htm&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=4,873,928.PN.&OS=PN/4,873,928&RS=PN/4,873,928).

Wake up people!

So you're allowed to dismiss our claims of patent trolling, and that there are no actual requirements for patents to be real, working products, without even addressing them...
But when you make claims about NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS WITH NO RADITAION!!! we're the ones who need to wake up?

Seriously, the very idea of an explosion without radiation is absurd; an explosion that produces no heat, no light, no particles of any kind?



EDIT: HAHAHAHAHAH did you even read the patent? Hahahahahaha, the method described is "Mix a combustable gas (such as methane) and oxygen. Ignite"

gzt

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  Reply # 536318 21-Oct-2011 22:57
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Back to the NZ Herald earthquake warning suppression story.

Recap - after the initial online story linked above, the Herald ran a rewritten version on the front page yesterday*

This morning, the Herald is running a strongly worded editorial on the same theme:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10760584

The editorial waffles like an 18th century novel and has huge science holes in it so I won't bother quoting from it.

Here is what is clear to me:

At least at that time, the process of releasing geological science information involved social scientists. It is not clear from the article if the social scientists described are a regular part of the GNS team or were part of a multidisciplinary team assembled after the boxing day quake.

GNS geoscientists studied the situation after the boxing day quake. Analysis illuminated several approximate locations where a significant aftershock might occur. Analysis also pointed to a maximum magnitude.

From the NZ Herald articles in the last few days it appears the information decided on for release in consultation with the social scientists did not name geographic locations. The Herald also appears to be suggesting that the likely maximum magnitude released was an order of magnitude less than the likely maximum indicated by the analysis.

The information provided by the Herald does not clearly and unambiguously demonstrate this to me at all.

Other than that the rest is very fuzzy indeed. The Herald so far has not done a good job of assisting readers to understand the qualitative and effective difference between the scientific information available and the information released.

That said I do have some questions about the exact role of these social scientists in the process. If they have any role it should be how best to communicate the available scientific information accurately to the public.

And if that is to be their role, then we need specialists in that communication discipline for sure, rather than deciding what should and should not be released based on some criteria like 'mental distress'. The suggestion that this may have occurred is concerning.

The Herald is also running a story about a request for geoscience funding immediately after the sept 4 quake to investigate the subsurface structure under the central city:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10760495

None of this information in the Herald ties together very well apart from the obvious editorial leaning in each article.

Maybe the Herald is planning a very serious weekend feature to lay out a clear timeline for the science program/schedule and data analysis as it was completed, the information available, the role and methodology of the social scientists, and a serious and scientific comparative analysis of the information available vs released. Or maybe someone else will pick it up and do a better job.

*The rewritten version which appeared on the front page is not available online so far. It is slightly clearer than the online version but not by much.

gzt

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  Reply # 536383 22-Oct-2011 11:12
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A TVNZ story on Thursday carried additional comment from Berryman:

"Following September's earthquake there was a consistent message that there was a chance of a magnitude six earthquake in the region, Berryman said. "While there was a very small possibility of an earthquake over the original magnitude 7.1 quake the likelihood was so small it was not deemed necessary to make it public," he said."

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/aftershock-predictions-not-hidden-public-scientist-4475532

This does not actually refute the Herald's line of argument which is that an aftershock/quake of equal magnitude was indicated by research and analysis, but the information released to the public showed one magnitude less due to advice of social scientists.

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  Reply # 536422 22-Oct-2011 13:19
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Maybe it's not the Herald's line of argument but Harold's line of argument that is important here as Harold Camping expects the New World Order to be introduced today October 21 probably with an earthquake that will Herald the end of the world. This will be some state of emergency!

Most of us have probably forgotten that as May 21 was a fizzer, October 21 is now the new date. Damn, I'll miss the rugby world cup final tomorrow!

Edit: By Oct 21, I mean in the USA.

1598 posts

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  Reply # 537406 25-Oct-2011 19:47
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For all of you "doubters" of the New World Order its now coming straight from the mainstream media: "The Vatican called on Monday for the establishment of a "global public authority" and a "central world bank" to rule over financial institutions that have become outdated and often ineffective in dealing fairly with crises."

Plenty of people will see it as a good thing because the Vatican suggested it...

Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/45013499



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  Reply # 537408 25-Oct-2011 19:50
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"The document from the Vatican's Justice and Peace department should please the "Occupy Wall Street" demonstrators and similar movements around the world who have protested against the economic downturn."

Does it mean "Occupy" is fighting for the New World Order to be imposed?

*confused with all those conspiracies going on*




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  Reply # 537411 25-Oct-2011 19:55
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freitasm: "The document from the Vatican's Justice and Peace department should please the "Occupy Wall Street" demonstrators and similar movements around the world who have protested against the economic downturn."

Does it mean "Occupy" is fighting for the New World Order to be imposed?

*confused with all those conspiracies going on*

Well what do you think? I mentioned this on the first page and everybody downplayed using the typical "conspiracy theorist"/"paranoid" label. When I threw back the "communist" label there was a huge uproar, as you would have seen.

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  Reply # 537419 25-Oct-2011 20:08
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freitasm: You haven't received the invite to the secret forum yet?

Actually, I am thinking we should create a Skepticism forum...


+1

good idea would love to have a good laugh each day..
no seriously debate is good and I think is covered in one if the rules

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  Reply # 537420 25-Oct-2011 20:10
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n00dy:
freitasm: You haven't received the invite to the secret forum yet?

Actually, I am thinking we should create a Skepticism forum...


+1

good idea would love to have a good laugh each day..
no seriously debate is good and I think is covered in one if the rules

Where is that quote from?
Edit: Ah first page.

Good idea maybe? 

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  Reply # 537457 25-Oct-2011 22:01
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codyc1515: For all of you "doubters" of the New World Order its now coming straight from the mainstream media: "The Vatican called on Monday for the establishment of a "global public authority" and a "central world bank" to rule over financial institutions that have become outdated and often ineffective in dealing fairly with crises."

Plenty of people will see it as a good thing because the Vatican suggested it...

Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/45013499


"The Vatican called for..." does not mean "The NWO exists."




My very metal Doctor Who theme

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  Reply # 537461 25-Oct-2011 22:04
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BurningBeard:
codyc1515: For all of you "doubters" of the New World Order its now coming straight from the mainstream media: "The Vatican called on Monday for the establishment of a "global public authority" and a "central world bank" to rule over financial institutions that have become outdated and often ineffective in dealing fairly with crises."

Plenty of people will see it as a good thing because the Vatican suggested it...

Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/45013499


"The Vatican called for..." does not mean "The NWO exists."

Choose to believe what you want to believe, we will see what happens.

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  Reply # 537565 26-Oct-2011 09:23
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codyc1515: Choose to believe what you want to believe, we will see what happens.


It's got nothing to do with "wanting" to believe anything. I go with the evidence and facts, not maybes and what ifs.

Jesus might come back tomorrow.  We will see what happens.
I might get taken away on an alien spacecraft next week. We will see what happens.
The Queen is a really an inter-dimensional reptile. We will see what happens.




My very metal Doctor Who theme

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  Reply # 537571 26-Oct-2011 09:32
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BurningBeard:
codyc1515: Choose to believe what you want to believe, we will see what happens.


It's got nothing to do with "wanting" to believe anything. I go with the evidence and facts, not maybes and what ifs.

Jesus might come back tomorrow.  We will see what happens.
I might get taken away on an alien spacecraft next week. We will see what happens.
The Queen is a really an inter-dimensional reptile. We will see what happens.

So where is the evidence and facts that it won't happen? If you take a look in the Bible, this has all happened before (re., Tower of Babel).

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  Reply # 537584 26-Oct-2011 09:54
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codyc1515: So where is the evidence and facts that it won't happen?


Where is the evidence that there isn't an invisible floating elephant in my garage that only I can see? 

This is an argument from ignorance. You cannot claim something is true simply because it hasn't been proved false. 

If you take a look in the Bible, this has all happened before (re., Tower of Babel). 


Great, quoting fiction now. You may as well be referencing Harry Potter.




My very metal Doctor Who theme

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