gzt:oxnsox: So to put this in 'conspiracy' perspective. The GNS is NOT Ken Ring and may have chosen NOT to spook those in Christchurch as their scientific approach to these things meant they do not operate with the same impunity (and apparent clarity) as aforementioned Mr Ring.
No the GNS is not Ken Ring. I cannot begin to express how thankful I am that is the case. Earthquakes are not very predictable. However, by contrast aftershocks are very predictable (just not by Ken Ring) within certain accepted parameters. This is not controversial at all.
The reason I'm dropping it in this topic is because the NZ Herald article has a somewhat sensationalist tone to it which will almost certainly cause misunderstanding.
The Herald led with a rewritten version on the front page of the print edition this morning. It is a bit clearer on the process and sequence of events, but far less than ideal. More on this later.
oxnsox: So GNS could not have put any date, time or location on this eventuality.
As the article states - GNS empirically assigned a magnitude and several likely locations for the aftershock events. The article does not mention a specific temporal window, but there is no doubt a temporal window is implicit in the statistical analysis performed.
I'm just curious how many of you know that we are still in a national state of emergency, essentially allowing for laws to be passed without scrutiny. "The state of emergency in New Zealand expires on the commencement of the seventh day after the date on which it was declared, unless it is extended." Just how long is it going to keep being extended for? I'm also curious how long they are going to keep borrowing $450 million every week?
On another note: I've found another patent. This time for "Nuclear-sized explosions without radiation". Let me guess: "oh you don't know if it works","people just patent things for the sake of it", etc, etc. (http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.htm&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=4,873,928.PN.&OS=PN/4,873,928&RS=PN/4,873,928).
Wake up people!