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  Reply # 1063441 11-Jun-2014 15:36
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Talkiet:
NonprayingMantis:
Offering Gb plans at $65 wholesale is all very well, but don't expect the retail price to be anything like that.

On top of that price, the ISP has to pay for all the backhaul, which for a Gb plan is going to be a shed load more.  Then there is the international capacity.

Whilst I'm not expecting ISPs to buy 1Gb of capacity for a 1Gb customer,  I would expect at least 8-10Mbs per customer to give a reasonably good experience on a 1Gb plan.  
Then there is all the other normal ISP overheads.

Just those things alone mean the retail price of a 1Gb plan is going to rock in somewhere around $300.  Anything less than that and it's being oversold.  It's nothing more than a 6 lane onramp leading onto a single lane motorway.  And then there is the cost of the CPE that can actually handle 1Gbps speeds properly.  


I'm afraid your comments here show you may not have knowledge or experience of how these things work out in decent sized networks.

On what basis do you even get to "8-10mbps per customer"?

Demand doesn't scale with caps or speed. It scales, on a large enough customer base, with evolution of OTT services and organic growth in use and content sizes. Additionally, when you make an access faster, people are using it less often, so doubling access speeds never means doubling of utilisation.

Cheers - N



 the 8-10Mbps was a bit of a guess.  

I'm figuring that, based on the $3 cost quoted by Telecom for the 'average' user and the quoted price of around $20/mbps for international, that equates to around 150kbps per customer for 'ADSL' which is of course the average across the board of all the very low users and thevery high users high users, and that's with most high users still only on ADSL because that's all they can get.  

200Kbps per users on an average bandwith of 20Mbps is 1/100th of the max throughput.  so 10Mbps is 1/100th of the 1Gbs max throughput.

so yes, it down't quite scale up that way, however, I am assuming that the kind of people who want to pay for a 1Gbps residential plan are mostly the kind of people who want to actually use the bandwidth, so the average utilisation will be considerably higher anyway

Specifically, people who do an absolute massive amount of tormenting or other huge file downloads.  e.g. downloading the full blu-ray (and soon 4K) rip versions of the things they want.

Hence the need for a much higher amount of international bandwidth. 


I'd disagree about this point:
"when you make an access faster, people are using it less often, so doubling access speeds never means doubling of utilisation."

whilst there is a bit of that, so it won't meani a doubleing, it still increases utilisation a lot.
The reason is that it also means usage is compressed, which pushes the peak much higher.  So instead of a large file download being spread across peak and non-peak times (with only the peak usage actually driving costs),  it all comes through at peak times, which has a much bigger impact on the cost of international.  You also have things like video default to the highest setting when it detects bandwidth is available.  And then there is a 'attention deficit disorder' factor.  People start a youtube clip then get bored quickly and switch to a different clip. With more bandwidth, the entire clip is already downloaded before they switch. With lower bandwidth, the experience is identical, but less of the clip has come down, so less bandwidth has been used.

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  Reply # 1063443 11-Jun-2014 15:36
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chevrolux: The Chours 1Gbps product is run on P2P fibre isn't it? That is very different to 1Gbps on GPON.

I wonder what CIR applies to these packages, 2Mbps? lol.....


think the chorus plan is the gigatown one which isn't p2p afaik.


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  Reply # 1063446 11-Jun-2014 15:40
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Talkiet:
NonprayingMantis:
Offering Gb plans at $65 wholesale is all very well, but don't expect the retail price to be anything like that.

On top of that price, the ISP has to pay for all the backhaul, which for a Gb plan is going to be a shed load more.  Then there is the international capacity.

Whilst I'm not expecting ISPs to buy 1Gb of capacity for a 1Gb customer,  I would expect at least 8-10Mbs per customer to give a reasonably good experience on a 1Gb plan.  
Then there is all the other normal ISP overheads.

Just those things alone mean the retail price of a 1Gb plan is going to rock in somewhere around $300.  Anything less than that and it's being oversold.  It's nothing more than a 6 lane onramp leading onto a single lane motorway.  And then there is the cost of the CPE that can actually handle 1Gbps speeds properly.  


I'm afraid your comments here show you may not have knowledge or experience of how these things work out in decent sized networks.

On what basis do you even get to "8-10mbps per customer"?

Demand doesn't scale with caps or speed. It scales, on a large enough customer base, with evolution of OTT services and organic growth in use and content sizes. Additionally, when you make an access faster, people are using it less often, so doubling access speeds never means doubling of utilisation.

Cheers - N



I think the 8 - 10mbps figure is guaranteed throughput on the network as chorus at the moment only has a 10mbps guaranteed throughput on their residential plans (last time I checked anyway).




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Stefan Andres Charsley

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  Reply # 1063447 11-Jun-2014 15:40
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NonprayingMantis: [snip]
I'd disagree about this point:
"when you make an access faster, people are using it less often, so doubling access speeds never means doubling of utilisation."
[snip]


You can disagree if you want, but I'm not basing my statement on a guess :-) rather, it's based on a significant customer base.

Cheers - N


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  Reply # 1063449 11-Jun-2014 15:42
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charsleysa: 
I think the 8 - 10mbps figure is guaranteed throughput on the network as chorus at the moment only has a 10mbps guaranteed throughput on their residential plans (last time I checked anyway).


last i knew chorus don't have any guaranteed throughput, only on the prioritised traffic marked as such, and dropped if exceeded which isn't very workable for normal traffic.  even if the isp did manage to mark the right amount of traffic, it'd have to be synchronised well, or could lead to packet loss / worse performance.  so in the end, i think it's basically not used.  it may be used for voip services sometimes, but wouldn't work with skype etc etc.  really it should be dropped completely, as it's just an overcomplication, and like is happening now, high speed services like gigabit should be offered that people can't max out anyway -- so if downloading at "full" speed, voip traffic will be fine.





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  Reply # 1063463 11-Jun-2014 16:01
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NonprayingMantis: I'd disagree about this point:
"when you make an access faster, people are using it less often, so doubling access speeds never means doubling of utilisation."


The difference in traffic profiles between a typical 50Mbps client and a typical 100Mbps client on our network is almost nil when you start looking at averages 5 minutes and above.

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  Reply # 1063467 11-Jun-2014 16:03
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mercutio:
chevrolux: The Chours 1Gbps product is run on P2P fibre isn't it? That is very different to 1Gbps on GPON.

I wonder what CIR applies to these packages, 2Mbps? lol.....


think the chorus plan is the gigatown one which isn't p2p afaik.



Not gigatown. The actual 1Gbps product that is currently availbale from Chorus. I am fairly certain they run that on P2P

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  Reply # 1063491 11-Jun-2014 16:26
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Talkiet:
NonprayingMantis: [snip]
I'd disagree about this point:
"when you make an access faster, people are using it less often, so doubling access speeds never means doubling of utilisation."
[snip]


You can disagree if you want, but I'm not basing my statement on a guess :-) rather, it's based on a significant customer base.

Cheers - N



a significant customer base on 1Gbps plans?

Telecom has only just launched their unlimited plans, and surely only has a few thousand users max on the 100Mbps fibre plans.

so the crossover between 'unlimited' and 100Mbps fibre on Telecom is surely  not going to be all that significant, so I don't see how you can have all that much data to be so sure what will happen with a 1Gbps plan that is available in the mass market.

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  Reply # 1063492 11-Jun-2014 16:27
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chevrolux:
mercutio:
chevrolux: The Chours 1Gbps product is run on P2P fibre isn't it? That is very different to 1Gbps on GPON.

I wonder what CIR applies to these packages, 2Mbps? lol.....


think the chorus plan is the gigatown one which isn't p2p afaik.



Not gigatown. The actual 1Gbps product that is currently availbale from Chorus. I am fairly certain they run that on P2P


oh right, yeh, that's p2p, but it's not a residential product.


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  Reply # 1063505 11-Jun-2014 16:30
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NonprayingMantis:
Talkiet:
NonprayingMantis: [snip]
I'd disagree about this point:
"when you make an access faster, people are using it less often, so doubling access speeds never means doubling of utilisation."
[snip]


You can disagree if you want, but I'm not basing my statement on a guess :-) rather, it's based on a significant customer base.

Cheers - N



a significant customer base on 1Gbps plans?


No, of course not, but I'd still wager _all my dollars_ that my predictions would be closer to actuals than yours.

As has been mentioned at least once by someone else in this thread, at a certain point, there's very little difference in use between access speeds.

Cheers - N


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  Reply # 1063507 11-Jun-2014 16:41
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Talkiet:
NonprayingMantis:
Talkiet:
NonprayingMantis: [snip]
I'd disagree about this point:
"when you make an access faster, people are using it less often, so doubling access speeds never means doubling of utilisation."
[snip]


You can disagree if you want, but I'm not basing my statement on a guess :-) rather, it's based on a significant customer base.

Cheers - N



a significant customer base on 1Gbps plans?


No, of course not, but I'd still wager _all my dollars_ that my predictions would be closer to actuals than yours.

As has been mentioned at least once by someone else in this thread, at a certain point, there's very little difference in use between access speeds.

Cheers - N



See law of diminishing returns, A bump from 100mbit to 1000mbit is not going to cause the same level of network loading increase that going from 10mbit to 100mbit creates




Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated 

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  Reply # 1063508 11-Jun-2014 16:42
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Beccara: 
See law of diminishing returns, A bump from 100mbit to 1000mbit is not going to cause the same level of network loading increase that going from 10mbit to 100mbit creates


but if it costs $300/month for unlimited, then it's likely they only very heavy users will use it, and share it amongst multiple people.


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  Reply # 1063513 11-Jun-2014 16:46
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Very few heavy users remain heavy users, After the initial "Backup the internet" surge usage drops back. You'd be surprised how the usage distribution curve looks almost the same across any price bracket




Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated 

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  Reply # 1063516 11-Jun-2014 16:48
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Talkiet:
NonprayingMantis:
Talkiet:
NonprayingMantis: [snip]
I'd disagree about this point:
"when you make an access faster, people are using it less often, so doubling access speeds never means doubling of utilisation."
[snip]


You can disagree if you want, but I'm not basing my statement on a guess :-) rather, it's based on a significant customer base.

Cheers - N



a significant customer base on 1Gbps plans?


No, of course not, but I'd still wager _all my dollars_ that my predictions would be closer to actuals than yours.

As has been mentioned at least once by someone else in this thread, at a certain point, there's very little difference in use between access speeds.

Cheers - N



well if that is the case,  then it defeats the purpose of having the plan in the first place.

OR

it makes you wonder why LFCs didn't just launch 1Gbps straight out the gate.  If the usage profile is no different, why faff around with 30 and 100Mbps plans, why not go straight for the 1Gbps

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  Reply # 1063527 11-Jun-2014 17:11
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NonprayingMantis: 

it makes you wonder why LFCs didn't just launch 1Gbps straight out the gate.  If the usage profile is no different, why faff around with 30 and 100Mbps plans, why not go straight for the 1Gbps


well ufb is only just getting started, and already people are pushing the speeds up.  the government mandate is speeds of at least 100 down and 50 up at a reasonable cost.  it's better to have something that works reasonably well now, than to have nothing while things are getting sorted out.  and 100/50 is still a huge step up from the common 16/1 speeds of adsl.



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