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Ultimate Geek
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# 174905 10-Jun-2015 12:49
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So Akamai release a report every quarter to show internet trends from around the world (State of the Internet). The report is due out June 24 (for Q1 2015), but I managed to get some figures ahead of time.

Australia
Q4 2014
Average: 7.4Mbps
Peak: 36.9Mbps
>4 Mbps: 69%
>10 Mbps: 16%

Q1 2015
Average: 7.6 Mbps
Peak: 40.8 Mbps
>4 Mbps: 71.5%
>10 Mbps: 17.1%


NZ
Q4 2014
Average: 7.3Mbps
Peak: 34.3Mbps
>4 Mbps: 80%
>10 Mbps: 15%

Q1 2015
Average: 8.4 Mbps
Peak: 36.7Mbps
>4 Mbps: 85.8%
>10 Mbps: 20.6%


Looks like NZ's average is up quite a bit, now for the first time we're faster on average than Australia. Broadband adoption is also racing ahead as nearly 86% of connections in NZ are faster than 4Mbps.

It looks like UFB/Gigatown is having a positive effect on the stats. I'm not sure where it puts us in relation to the rest of the world, but I think we'll be moving up a few places.

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Ultimate Geek
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  # 1322085 10-Jun-2015 13:16
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Do you really believe that the average speed in NZ is only 7.3Mb/s?

Or even more ridiculous, the peak average is 34.3Mb/s - that is the peak speed for every IP address they measure, so corporate IP addresses theoretically only get one chance to be included in this average?

OR, that only 15% and now 20% of NZers get greater than 10Mb/s??

80% of NZ connections are ADSL and that is going to change slowly, our measurements show that on standard ADSL the average peak speed is approximately 9Mb/s, as you would expect after a major upgrade to most connections being on FTTN (Cabinets)  

Akamai data is fundamentally flawed approach using IP address only.  multiple use of the same IP address by different connections can skew results.

quoting from the response to an inquiry made of Akamai last quarter:  Akamai Editor:
"  The average and average peak connection speed metric calculations exclude mobile networks, but include connections from home broadband subscribers, as well as educational and enterprise connections – the report does not claim to measure only home broadband speeds.  However, since the number of enterprise/educational connections is significantly lower than those from home broadband, so the former should not cause the data to skew significantly higher (since enterprises and educational institutions often have faster Internet connections.)

 

-          If I look at the data for New Zealand at a network provider level, among the largest providers (where we saw the most unique IP addresses contacting Akamai), the average peak speeds ranged from ~18 Mbps to ~91 Mbps – the latter was more of an outlier, though, as most were in the 20-40 Mbps range.

 

-          I don’t have any specific insight into what would have driven the growth in the broadband adoption (4 Mbps) metric.  In looking at the graph for the Q1’12-Q3’14 period, it appears that the growth rate was fairly steady during 2012, then has accelerated moreso over the past two years.  This is a measure of the number of unique IP addresses making content requests to Akamai with average connection speeds above 4 Mbps, so the only thing that I can think of is that there was some change among NZ Internet providers where they began providing more than a single IP address to subscribers."


The danger in NZ of course is that IP addresses are sometimes shared between mobile and fixed, which may cause more confusion in this data.  This may not be the case in other countries, leading to false assumptions for comparisons

check out our report in December on the real NZ average speed where we listed the average speed at 14Mb/s.  Yes speed is increasing quickly due to VDSL and UFB, but not that quick.

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  # 1333128 28-Jun-2015 23:47
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4 or 5 years ago i did some personal research into why web pages loaded slowly in new zealand, and that the two major issues were tracking/adverts, and akamai.  it's good to see that akamai's self-reporting is showing akamai performance to improve.  and i haven't noticed akamai being nearly as bad as it used to be.

i do still notice that enabling tracking and ads significantly slows down web page loads though.

i'm not sure how akamai works, but it's probably more generally useful than truenet's reporting - truenet's reporting is single threaded and doesn't include major web sites like google, facebook, wikipedia, ebay, amazon etc.  it also is opt-in, and intrusive artifical tests which is less representitive.

i would like to see google and facebook measure users performance and present it.  cloudflare coming to new zealand also seemed to significantly improve the performance of some web sites. (like geekzone!)

 
 
 
 


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  # 1333129 28-Jun-2015 23:56
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JohnButt: [snip]
check out our report in December on the real NZ average speed where we listed the average speed at 14Mb/s.  Yes speed is increasing quickly due to VDSL and UFB, but not that quick.


John, your sample isn't randomly selected and there are some EXCELLENT arguments to be made why the customers with your probes do not necessarily represent  a fair cross-section of NZ users.

You certainly have a lot of probes out there, I grant you that, and your data is in many cases useful, fascinating and demonstrates real trends, but remember that pretty much all users use Akamai and they probably have a lot more datapoints.

I'm not saying one is better than the other, just that caution should be used claiming things like "the real NZ average speed"...

Cheers - N

(ps. Posted at 11:56pm on a Sunday night, this is me, in my personal capacity :-)






--

 

Please note all comments are the product of my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.


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Ultimate Geek
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  # 1333148 29-Jun-2015 07:46
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Talkiet:
JohnButt: [snip]
check out our report in December on the real NZ average speed where we listed the average speed at 14Mb/s.  Yes speed is increasing quickly due to VDSL and UFB, but not that quick.


John, your sample isn't randomly selected and there are some EXCELLENT arguments to be made why the customers with your probes do not necessarily represent  a fair cross-section of NZ users.

You certainly have a lot of probes out there, I grant you that, and your data is in many cases useful, fascinating and demonstrates real trends, but remember that pretty much all users use Akamai and they probably have a lot more datapoints.

I'm not saying one is better than the other, just that caution should be used claiming things like "the real NZ average speed"...

Cheers - N

(ps. Posted at 11:56pm on a Sunday night, this is me, in my personal capacity :-)




You've got to use some method for taking a calculation, and not everyone is going to be happy no matter what method you use.

I think the method they use is more than reasonable.  It is primary intended to be used for a comparative basis, and similar testing across all providers allows for that.




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  # 1333163 29-Jun-2015 08:54
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If you look at the Speedtest.net results, NZ has been for quite some time faster than AU. Their result, also, may not be a true indication, but I'd take them as a general idea of where both countries sit (and they are the numbers people commonly use to measure their performance).

http://www.netindex.com/download/map


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Ultimate Geek
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  # 1333177 29-Jun-2015 09:37
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Personally, I don't have too much of a problem with download speed. 10-12Mb/s is okay I guess. I'd love it to be faster but it's Vodafone so what're you going to do? 

UPLOAD on the other hand...along with my "meh" download speed, I get an awesome 750Kb/s on a good day. Makes skyping my fiancee in Los Angeles a bit of an issue. I also do a lot of other things that suffer because of my crappy, crappy upload speed.

NZ's broadband landscape should not be considered anything other than mediocre until such time that we have proper upload speeds to go with the download speed. 

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  # 1333179 29-Jun-2015 09:46
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markl: NZ's broadband landscape should not be considered anything other than mediocre until such time that we have proper upload speeds to go with the download speed. 

With UFB and VDSL, I believe that about 2/3 of the country currently has access to 10 Mb/s or faster upload speeds. Our broadband infrastructure is anything but mediocre.

 
 
 
 


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Ultimate Geek
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  # 1333193 29-Jun-2015 10:02
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Behodar:
markl: NZ's broadband landscape should not be considered anything other than mediocre until such time that we have proper upload speeds to go with the download speed. 

With UFB and VDSL, I believe that about 2/3 of the country currently has access to 10 Mb/s or faster upload speeds. Our broadband infrastructure is anything but mediocre.


"has access to" - that's THEORETICAL, not PRACTICAL.

The practicalities of the situation are that due to a large number of variables - cost, physical constraints, lack of awareness, etc., MOST people do NOT have access. 

And there's the rub - noone knows when they're getting access to UFB, or if they're already able to get it...And many are in the situation I'm in - renting and with a landlord that is unwilling or relucatant to approve the work being done to get it up the driveway and to the house. Yes, I could go to VDSL, but there is no guarantee that I'll get a significant difference in service quality...



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  # 1333202 29-Jun-2015 10:11
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markl: ...
UPLOAD on the other hand...along with my "meh" download speed, I get an awesome 750Kb/s on a good day. Makes skyping my fiancee in Los Angeles a bit of an issue. I also do a lot of other things that suffer because of my crappy, crappy upload speed....


With that upload speed, you are presumably on ADSL.
That is the upstream speed limit for ADSL, regardless of what country you are in. - you need VDSL or fibre, if available.




Sideface


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Ultimate Geek
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  # 1333211 29-Jun-2015 10:19
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Sideface:
markl: ...
UPLOAD on the other hand...along with my "meh" download speed, I get an awesome 750Kb/s on a good day. Makes skyping my fiancee in Los Angeles a bit of an issue. I also do a lot of other things that suffer because of my crappy, crappy upload speed....


With that upload speed, you are presumably on ADSL.
That is the upstream speed limit for ADSL, regardless of what country you are in. - you need VDSL or fibre, if available.


Hmm....Well according to this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymmetric_digital_subscriber_line#ADSL_standards, whatever ADSL standard I have, I should be able to get better upload speeds than I am - like I said, 750Kb/s if I'm lucky. Usually I'm not...



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Ultimate Geek
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  # 1333216 29-Jun-2015 10:27
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Talkiet:
JohnButt: [snip]
check out our report in December on the real NZ average speed where we listed the average speed at 14Mb/s.  Yes speed is increasing quickly due to VDSL and UFB, but not that quick.


John, your sample isn't randomly selected and there are some EXCELLENT arguments to be made why the customers with your probes do not necessarily represent  a fair cross-section of NZ users.

You certainly have a lot of probes out there, I grant you that, and your data is in many cases useful, fascinating and demonstrates real trends, but remember that pretty much all users use Akamai and they probably have a lot more datapoints.

I'm not saying one is better than the other, just that caution should be used claiming things like "the real NZ average speed"...

Cheers - N

(ps. Posted at 11:56pm on a Sunday night, this is me, in my personal capacity :-)




Neil, 

Given your role in reviewing broadband measurement, I would hope you read our reports more carefully.  

The TrueNet sample is a random sample of panelists by technology, location and ISP.  TrueNet's December report was generated for the first time once we had access to accurate data on the weightings required by technology, location and ISP to be able to normalise our random data. 

The second paragraph in the report quoted says: "With the recent publication of Chorus customer numbers for each technology; the published data from MBIE on total fibre connections; combined with total market share of each ISP, TrueNet can now publish a reliable NZ wide speed calculation."  Chorus provided even deeper partitioning of data to me to improve my weighted segmentation and we checked our net results against their measures of Sync speeds.

TrueNet panelists do represent a cross section of NZ connections - we measure connections, not users.  We do not measure any attribute related to panelists personality age or income bracket, we are measuring performance of a connection, with no direct cost to the panelist.  We do not need to represent a "fair cross-section of NZ users", that would only be useful if you needed to know a demographic of users related to connection performance.

Akamai's datapoints are not able to be weighted, even by Akamai, because they do not know what technology they are measuring, when they are measuring a corporate connection with many thousands of internal clients or in many cases if they are measuring mobile vs fixed due to re-use of IP addresses.  Akamai measure against IP addresses, which may include Fibre, Corporate fibre, Cable, ADSL or VDSL, PLUS tethering, wifi, or even mobile phones on the back of a fixed line.  A core component is to measure iTunes downloads, i.e. music.   Earlier 2009 SoI reports showed definite confusion over IP address allocation, assuming ALL Vodafone were mobile and All Telecom were fixed and we notice IP addresses switch between fixed and mobile.

My claim to be measuring "The average NZ broadband speed improved by 34% in 2014, from 10Mb/s to 14Mb/s." is based on excellent sample size - over 100 per technology, and excellent information on market segmentation, enabling proper weighting to be applied.

Akamai Peak average speed is the average of the fastest speed measured on each IP address in NZ - 34.3Mb/s - yea right.

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  # 1333221 29-Jun-2015 10:37
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markl:
Behodar:
markl: NZ's broadband landscape should not be considered anything other than mediocre until such time that we have proper upload speeds to go with the download speed. 

With UFB and VDSL, I believe that about 2/3 of the country currently has access to 10 Mb/s or faster upload speeds. Our broadband infrastructure is anything but mediocre.


"has access to" - that's THEORETICAL, not PRACTICAL.

The practicalities of the situation are that due to a large number of variables - cost, physical constraints, lack of awareness, etc., MOST people do NOT have access. 

And there's the rub - noone knows when they're getting access to UFB, or if they're already able to get it...And many are in the situation I'm in - renting and with a landlord that is unwilling or relucatant to approve the work being done to get it up the driveway and to the house. Yes, I could go to VDSL, but there is no guarantee that I'll get a significant difference in service quality...


I strongly disagree with that statement.

You will only get connected to VDSL if your Attenuation is below 12db so you could at least be looking at 30/4-5 worst case.

So your upstream WILL increase due to the greater capacity.

If you can't get VDSL due to being too far away from the exchange, or now if you are in a UFB area Chorus are refusing to install VDSL as you really should be moving to UFB.

Then it turns into a conversation you should be having with your landlord as to why it's a good idea to get UFB and the benefits he will have for his current tenants and all future tenants.

Otherwise move out and find somewhere new to live, plus start a "name and shame" web site listing all rubbish landlords who won't allow UFB.





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  # 1333223 29-Jun-2015 10:41
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BarTender: Then it turns into a conversation you should be having with your landlord as to why it's a good idea to get UFB and the benefits he will have for his current tenants and all future tenants.

Otherwise move out and find somewhere new to live, plus start a "name and shame" web site listing all rubbish landlords who won't allow UFB.

I fully agree. The infrastructure is there (which is what my earlier post stated). If the landlord won't allow it to be installed then that's not the infrastructure's fault!

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Ultimate Geek
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  # 1333227 29-Jun-2015 10:49
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Behodar:
BarTender: Then it turns into a conversation you should be having with your landlord as to why it's a good idea to get UFB and the benefits he will have for his current tenants and all future tenants.

Otherwise move out and find somewhere new to live, plus start a "name and shame" web site listing all rubbish landlords who won't allow UFB.

I fully agree. The infrastructure is there (which is what my earlier post stated). If the landlord won't allow it to be installed then that's not the infrastructure's fault!



Having the infrastructure available is not the same thing as the general public having access to it. That's like saying that because there are Ferrari dealerships in Auckland, the average Aucklander can have a Ferrari!!! 

There are so many factors involved - having the cables in the ground is JUST ONE.



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Ultimate Geek
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  # 1333229 29-Jun-2015 10:58
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BarTender: You will only get connected to VDSL if your Attenuation is below 12db so you could at least be looking at 30/4-5 worst case.


Ok, I'm going to play devil's advocate for a second here - wtf is attenuation to the average Joe? Honestly, have a read of that sentence and tell me if you think the average New Zealander would understand what you just wrote. 

THAT is ANOTHER of the problems with broadband uptake in this country - there are seemingly only two types of people - the network nerds who talk in their acronyms and jargon, and the average person who doesn't have a clue what they're on about - that's a textbook example of what I like to call "the REAL digital divide" - those who "get it" are either unwilling or unable to explain "it" in terms that those who "don't get it" can understand. 



So your upstream WILL increase due to the greater capacity.



Oh, I'm SURE the speed will increase. But no one can give me a guarantee of what speed I can get...why the hell not?!?! What kind of mickey mouse infrastructure IS this?! Do you see my point yet? I get it - I'm a techie too, (though not a network guy so attenuation and crap like that goes just as far over my head as the average person) but the average person in the New Zealand public is just going to think this is nuts! Why sign up for a service with no guarantee beforehand of the quality and capacity of that service??


If you can't get VDSL due to being too far away from the exchange, or now if you are in a UFB area Chorus are refusing to install VDSL as you really should be moving to UFB.

Then it turns into a conversation you should be having with your landlord as to why it's a good idea to get UFB and the benefits he will have for his current tenants and all future tenants.

Otherwise move out and find somewhere new to live, plus start a "name and shame" web site listing all rubbish landlords who won't allow UFB.


Please, don't be so facetious - it does your position NO favours. There are many reasons to stay where I am, and others out there in the real world have even more than I do. Plus having discussions with a landlord I've never even met, through a property manager acting as a mediator, is just too much effort, especially as, again, no service provider is giving me any guarantee of quality of the new service I'd be getting. 

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